Matchbook Experiment: Day 1

ParanoidAndroid · 08-23-2006, 03:24 PM

Day 1 of my Matchbook experiment has concluded and I've learned a couple things from MB, the thread I started earlier and the PMs that I've been getting on this experiment.

PATIENCE: I was starting to get a little worried when none of my numbers were being matched. However, it's amazing how many do end up getting matched as game time gets closer. In almost literally a blink of an eye I went from 2 matched bets to more than 10 matched bets. The money really does roll in late on a game and you have to be ready with a number already hanging.

PLAY THE NUMBERS: Playing an exchange is something that you have to do for your own numbers instead of whats out there in the rest of the world. The matches that I managed to get yesterday were very juicy because I managed to get "upside down" on a couple of games. Two examples:

TEXAS/TAMPA BAY - Over 8: +108
TEXAS/TAMPA BAY - Under 8: -104

HOUSTON/CINCI - Over 9.5: +108
HOUSTON/CINCI - Under 9.5 -106

So, not the greatest edges in the world, but you do this enough times over the course of a season and it starts to add up. That's only 2 examples, I had at least 2 others. Obviously, these numbers have little correlation to what someone like Pinny had, but my personal numbers are what's important and these would show a profit over the long-term

WRITE THE ACTION: In "The Book on Bookies", Jeffries write that the more action you write, the more money you make. This certainly makes sense any time that you're making people lay odds. So, I played literally every game on the board yesterday and even did the Grand Salami. It's almost like fishing, you gotta give yourself enough opportunities to write action. This also serves to diversify my games for the day. Since no bet is more than 5% and I'm diversifying, I'd like to think that my risk-of-ruin (RoR) is relatively low on any given day. BTW, the 5% is coming from a rough Kelly Criterion estimation, so it's valid number to prevent RoR.

END RESULT: I lived to fight another day and showed a profit of 3.5 units yesterday.

Superfly · 08-23-2006, 03:42 PM

Good job PA. Quick question- why Matchbook? The fees are lowr at Mansion, but I'm not sure about the volume.

ParanoidAndroid · 08-23-2006, 03:53 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: Superfly

Good job PA. Quick question- why Matchbook? The fees are lowr at Mansion, but I'm not sure about the volume.</end quote></div>
That's a good question and one that has come up by other members to me via PM. The fees may indeed be lower. However, for the time being, I feel most comfortable with the Matchbook interface and the "MarketMaker" system. I'm still relatively new to exchanges and I want to be fully comfortable with the numbers before I invest more money and/or look to other exchanges.

I guess I think of MB as an exchange with "training wheels" and I feel comfortable with it. That's not to take anything away from MB, I know that they're a solid shop and all my dealings with them have been pleasant - I just like their interface better even though it may be too "cute" for more serious exchange players.

Bucky · 08-23-2006, 06:56 PM

One thing about Matchbook. If you have 5 seconds to get a bet down you can get it done with them. Boom,boom,boom you can be down. No, confirmation screen - no password BS - fast.

I guess if I take one of your numbers we might both have as good a number as there is in the marketplace - but who got the value? Your plan will work if there are enough donkeys in the marketplace that do not know where the value is.

ParanoidAndroid · 08-23-2006, 07:16 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: Bucky
Your plan will work if there are enough donkeys in the marketplace that do not know where the value is.</end quote></div>

Well, that's certainly a part of it. There's definitely an "a fool and his money . . . " element to this. If I post a ridiculous number that some donkey bites on, then I'm more than happy to take his cash [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

cookson1 · 08-23-2006, 11:09 PM

GOOD LUCK PA --- KEEP US POSTED ! LOL

Domer · 08-24-2006, 12:23 AM

Are you factoring in the 2% commission?

You may have some stacked up commission credits with them, and it would inflate your winnings until you run out of it.

j · 08-24-2006, 03:57 PM

Agree Domer...those MB commissions are brutal...though I didn't have a lot of success offering best available NBA numbers at Mansion in a similar experiment...also would be surprised if there are donkys playing at MB...let us know if someone takes a number more than a nickle off what they could have got elsewhere.

ParanoidAndroid · 08-24-2006, 04:07 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: j

Agree Domer...those MB commissions are brutal</end quote></div>

The commissions are indeed brutal. However, keep in mind that they are only charging commissions on your _profit_. So, while I may give up 2%, it's still relatively cheap "overhead expense" for what is, essentially, a full operation. To run a local book right, it could easily cost a couple hundred a month in overhead (phones, 1 clerk, rotations, gas, supplies, etx) not to mention the law enforcement risk - so I'm more than happy to pay 2%.

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: j
also would be surprised if there are donkys playing at MB...let us know if someone takes a number more than a nickle off what they could have got elsewhere.</end quote></div>

Read my post from yesterday. In many ways, the numbers that are available in the "real world" don't matter. If you can get an over at +108 and an under at -102, you're going to make money on it, no matter what the numbers on other books are. So far, the closest match I've made has been 4 cents, In some cases, I've gotten as much as 12 cents and I couldn't even tell you what the Pinny numbers were - doesn't really matter, in my book that will show a profit over the long run. Also, that's one of the reasons why I'm sticking with O/U - the underlying number will move relatively little, I only need to change my payouts for "attraction" [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

j · 08-24-2006, 04:52 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>In many ways, the numbers that are available in the "real world" don't matter. </end quote></div>

This is puzzling to me. If the real world numbers change and one of "your" numbers is now bad relative to the rest of the world you're going to be caught long and not booking at all, no?

Your reference to The Book on Bookies is also a head scratcher. The whole message of that book is how to find and service donkeys. I think Jeffries would agree you have to find them down at the VFW, they're not going to find you at matchbook.com.

ParanoidAndroid · 08-24-2006, 05:34 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: j

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>In many ways, the numbers that are available in the "real world" don't matter. </end quote></div>

This is puzzling to me. If the real world numbers change and one of "your" numbers is now bad relative to the rest of the world you're going to be caught long and not booking at all, no?
</end quote></div>

This one is really hard to understand unless you have experience with MB. The real-world number doesn't matter if you already have the other match for it. So, say I have an over at +112, that means that I'm looking for an under at -112 or better, or going by my rules, I need -108. So, my offer will be +108 and that could be higher or lower than whats out there - regardless, my profit is in the match. I just need to know what the other side is at, what the DB screen shows is irrelevant at that point.

But again, I'm not going blindly into it, I try to post similar numbers than whats on MB, obviously, I'm not going to offer +108 if the best is +103 and I can still get a profit at that point. Will I end up long on some games? Sure I will. But as long as more games are being matched than long, I will come out OK. Plus, you can always lay-off the long games and lose a couple of cents here & there.

HG · 08-24-2006, 05:44 PM

Just make sure that you're not making the mistake of giving up pos ex positions for the sake of balanced action. The pros at MB will put you in enough bad positions so you have to let your good positions earn you a full return to combat the losses instead of trading them away.

ParanoidAndroid · 08-24-2006, 05:49 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: HG

Just make sure that you're not making the mistake of giving up pos ex positions for the sake of balanced action. The pros at MB will put you in enough bad positions so you have to let your good positions earn you a full return to combat the losses instead of trading them away.</end quote></div>

HG - good point. At this stage, I'm just trying to get most of my offerings matched. As for maximizing the value, I think that will be the next stage of the experiment.

HG · 08-24-2006, 06:02 PM

If you're just looking for balanced action then there's something that I really can't comprehend. You say that you're a small bettor at this stage in your career.

Well, why not just use MB as one of your books, along with pinny, mansion, cascade etc and then a slew of square books that you're able to play at at this point in time so that you'll be able to get the best price on both sides and just scalp?

ParanoidAndroid · 08-24-2006, 06:46 PM

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: HG
Well, why not just use MB as one of your books, along with pinny, mansion, cascade etc and then a slew of square books that you're able to play at at this point in time so that you'll be able to get the best price on both sides and just scalp?</end quote></div>

1 - I'm not looking to be on the player side of this chasing the DB screen
2 - The scalps I can as a MarketMaker on MB are much more attractive

HG · 08-24-2006, 08:06 PM

Well PA,
When you're able to play at the super square books that you've indicated that you're able to play at at this stage then you certainly don't need the screen to find juicy scalps. As for #2 I find that highly unlikely, in fact downright impossible. Please explain, because I must have misunderstood what you meant.