My Experiment with Matchbook

[ParanoidAndroid]

I've been fascinated with implementations of exchanges, particularly with Matchbook. In many ways, the exchange presents an opportunity to play "legal" bookie since you can play both sides. Matchbook makes this abundantly clear with their "MarketMaker" feature. I've always dabbled with some items on Matchbook and I've even posted some questions here about it. My basic question has always been: can you make a significant amount of money playing both sides of events on Matchbook?

I've done some of the math on it and it would certainly vet out that you can make money. Giving -110 on both sides of a wager (and getting balanced action) should certainly result in positive cash flow. However, the practical side of this, like getting the action and setting the right numbers, is very important and there's really no other way to get that than to actually try it.

So, I've started an experiment on Matchbook with a modest sum of money. I will act like a bookmaker, keeping close tabs on my lines, adjusting as needed and managing my roll. Here's some groundrules I've set:
1 - Minimize exposure; no single wager will represent more than 5% of my BR
2 - Wager on the big sports - I figure that this is the best way to try to fill my orders. For now, I will mostly focus on baseball and football since those present the greater number of opportunities
3 - No better than 4 cents - On moneylines, I'm trying to keep my numbers spread out greater than 4 cents. I know that anything less than that and I'm getting into a region where the margins are too thin. I'm just not prepared for the fluctuations that something less than 4 cents would bring
4 - Lay off - the point here is to minimize exposure. I don't want to be up at all hours because I "need" a game - in fact, I don't want to watch any games. I will lay-off, most likely within Matchbook, to minimize my exposure and protect my bankroll

I'm starting this today (8/22) with a small sum and I hope to post my progress as it goes along. If this experiment shows promise, I am prepared to ramp-up my investment to a much larger amount. I'm starting with a small sum to get acclimated to the practical side of running this as a "business" and seeing if it is a viable experiment.

[The Actuary]

Good luck.

If you are generating your numbers yourself, typically 8-9 of every 10 will be close enough to net you a profit. Damage control on the other 1-2 will determine whether the other one's enable you to earn a profit.

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: The Actuary

Good luck.



If you are generating your numbers yourself, typically 8-9 of every 10 will be close enough to net you a profit. Damage control on the other 1-2 will determine whether the other one's enable you to earn a profit.</end quote></div>

Appreciate the support.

That's certainly part of this experiment, in that I will have to track the movement of the numbers throughout the day so as to not be stuck with a bad number. I set my initial number based on what's hanging already and then adjust throughout the day according to the bets that I have matched. In the end, I know I will have to trust the vig; if you give -110 over the long-run you should come out ahead no matter how badly you take it on the chin some nights.

[ronbets]

PA&lt;&lt;if you give -110 over the long-run you should come out ahead no matter how badly you take it on the chin some nights.&gt;&gt;

Say What!!

[Chillin-the-Most]

Am I to understand that in this experiment you will be offering other players to back either side of a 50/50 event at -110? And then, Matchbook will charge said players on their winnings? If you can get players to do this PA you are missing your calling. Just get an affiliate deal with a book and start collecting your checks.

[nfleqbc]

I don't think PA is looking at -110... Looks like -103 is more like it, judging from his "try to keep numbers spread out more than 4 cents comment"...

[HG]

#1 good luck

#2 you will never get balanced action on more than 5% of the games..more likely 2%

#3 if you don't have don best then you'll get killed

#4 if you're not extremely sharp then you'll get killed- sharp as in knowing where the line is going the vast majority of the time

#5 if you're not extremely early to receive info that is not available on db then you'll get killed

#6 if you don't keep 2 eyes on your monitor/s at all times then you'll get killed

#7 if you're able to do all of the above very well and get a nice deal from mb you should do okay

#8 good luck

[ParanoidAndroid]

Appreciate all of the comments.

I'm not discounting the possibility that this experiment may be an utter failure. However, that's all part of the learning process - hence, my modest investment so that if I do learn a lesson, it won't be an expensive one.

[Domer]

The only opportunity I see on Matchbook as far as offering lines is on live betting events, and considering the long-term profit I've made on live betting, I don't even see that as much of an opportunity.

Take a look at the lines before the game starts, it's typically something like -139/+137.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Cheers to PA!!!

Good luck nice to see somebody trying something to make a profit that following everybody elses shxt.

Good luck, keep us updated.

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: ronbets

PA&lt;&lt;if you give -110 over the long-run you should come out ahead no matter how badly you take it on the chin some nights.&gt;&gt;

Say What!!</end quote></div>

Is there something you don't understand there? Given a fair line on something like over/unders in baseball, making someone else always take -110 (ie give you +110) is a winning proposition over the long-term. It similar to a coin flip - except that if I lose, I pay you $10, if you lose, you pay me $11. If you do enough of those coin flips, you WILL come out way, way ahead.

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: BuzzRavanaugh

Cheers to PA!!!

Good luck nice to see somebody trying something to make a profit that following everybody elses shxt.

Good luck, keep us updated.</end quote></div>
Appreciate the props! I just got tired of wondering about the answer to this questions and decided to do something about it [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: Chillin-the-Most

Am I to understand that in this experiment you will be offering other players to back either side of a 50/50 event at -110? And then, Matchbook will charge said players on their winnings? If you can get players to do this PA you are missing your calling. Just get an affiliate deal with a book and start collecting your checks.</end quote></div>

Well, in a way, that is the point of exchanges (not just Matchbook). You can hang any number you want, whether it gets matched or not is a whole different story.

[The Actuary]

I think it is called adverse risk formally.


When an insurance company has open enrollment and 90% of the sign ups are disease ridden already-


-110 will do you no good if the underlying number is more than 4.5% off.





If you were dealing with a bunch of college kids-it is one thing, but who do you think exactly are you booking to? The matchbook clientele is not stupid and they will not eagerly bank the wrong side.


I misunderstood exactly what it is you were doing-I thought you were going to post proprietary opening numbers and go from there, the hook being your numbers have a lower mean error than the other openers out there.
HG's post is right on, you will not get balanced action in a million years.


Pokerjoe did the same thing a while back with the soccer and he did it at a squarer place, gamebookers exchange-

he can post for himself if he sees the thread-
I think he concluded you can make meager money but it is not worth the time.




either way, best of luck and keep us posted.

THe underlying premise is only true if you can get originators on both sides of a game and/or use their info when they are not on both sides of a game to bet elsewhere.

Seeking balanced action will not garner you as much money in the long run as being on the right side except as noted above-if it did, the US based originators who dominate the lines would be moving them back and forth at will.

Just one man's opinions.

TA

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: The Actuary
-110 will do you no good if the underlying number is more than 4.5% off.
</end quote></div>

That's a very valid point and its also one of the reasons why I'm focusing on the over/unders. In baseball, the underlying number changes relatively infrequently. So, as long as I put in my due-dilligence and adjust my line throughout the day, it should be OK

[shoebox]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: ParanoidAndroid

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: ronbets



PA&lt;&lt;if you give -110 over the long-run you should come out ahead no matter how badly you take it on the chin some nights.&gt;&gt;



Say What!!</end quote></div>



Is there something you don't understand there? Given a fair line on something like over/unders in baseball, making someone else always take -110 (ie give you +110) is a winning proposition over the long-term. It similar to a coin flip - except that if I lose, I pay you $10, if you lose, you pay me $11. If you do enough of those coin flips, you WILL come out way, way ahead.</end quote></div>




There are so many things wrong with this posts its not even funny. P/A you gotta look at the true line as well, not just a blanket statemenet of letting someone else lay -110. If the game is ov 8-25 everywhere, I will lay u -110 all day long and u dont have a prayer in the long run. Alos it is a myth that BM's Balance action and take all the money on -110, u need to win decisions to make money in the biz and u need people betting u parlays and teasers to overcome the losing games.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Shoe - would you say that this also applies to over/unders? I can see how it applies to points and the changes are much more volatile in moneyline situations, but with baseball o/u's, where the underlying number changes so infrequently, I think that this is a valid way of doing business. Plus, remember, if something goes desperately wrong with my number, no single bet represents more than 5% of my total bankroll, so the exposure on a single game is minimal.

[shoebox]

P/A, take a look at LOS/SD Total

7.5 ov -130

If you let people lay -110 there just for the sake of getting making them lay the required -110 u will get buried. I am not saying u cant make $$ with your theory but as HG says, u must have Don Best, U must be Sharp and u must stare at the computer 14 hrs a day, there are easier ways to make money.

[ParanoidAndroid]

<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: shoebox

P/A, take a look at LOS/SD Total

7.5 ov -130

If you let people lay -110 there just for the sake of getting making them lay the required -110 u will get buried. I am not saying u cant make $$ with your theory but as HG says, u must have Don Best, U must be Sharp and u must stare at the computer 14 hrs a day, there are easier ways to make money.</end quote></div>

I guess that one of my earlier posts was not clear. Of course I'm NOT blindly giving -110 across the board. I make the number similar to whats already posted up there. So, in this scenario, I might give -130 or even -129.

However, as soon as thats matched, I might change it. I just need to change it enough to make a profit. That could make my final tally something like:

OVER 7.5: +130
UNDER 7.5: -125

As I stated in my earlier post, the final numbers I end up with may have very little correlation to someone like Pinny, but if the numbers are matched and they make sense, why not lock-in a profit?

Come on guys, let's be sensible here, this may just be an experiment, but I'm not going blindly into it [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]