The Computer Picks Marquez vs. Pacquiao

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The Computer Picks Marquez vs. Pacquiao
By Thomas Gerbasi (May 4, 2004)


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It’s a bout that has split the boxing world, this Saturday’s featherweight unification battle between Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao. Half of the people are picking Marquez, the other half Pacquiao, and each half may swing to the other side before the first bell rings at the MGM Grand. One thing is certain though; this is a great fight, and one that every self-respecting fight fan must check out.

But who will win? Thankfully, through the wonders of modern technology, Title Bout Championship Boxing, the premier boxing simulator, is here to help us determine who is more likely to be crowned unified featherweight king come Saturday night. How I love to take the easy way out.

If you’ve followed the way we do things with these type of breakdowns, we run the fights through the sim’s autoscheduler 100 times to get a decent statistical sample. Now since Marquez is rated as a boxer and a slugger in the program, we ran 100 fights with JMM as a slugger, and 100 as a boxer.




The results were surprising, not because of who won, but by the margins of victory. With Marquez fighting as a boxer, Pacquiao won 79% of the 100 matches, with 75 of those victories coming by knockout. Marquez only won 20% of the bouts with 16 early wins. When Marquez fought as a slugger and took the fight to the “Pac-Man” the results were even worse, with the Philippine bomber winning 84% of the 100 bouts, with all but one win coming by KO or TKO. Marquez won 15 of his 16 bouts in this second hundred by knockout.

So it looks like a blowout for Manny Pacquiao, but that’s why they fight ‘em. Let’s step into the ring at the MGM Grand. Your referee is Mr. Fair but Firm, Joe Cortez.

ROUND ONE – Both men are in peak condition and are raring to go as they wait for the first bell to ring. Pacquiao comes out bobbing and weaving as he approaches the center of the ring. Marquez rips off a quick 1-2 to the head and the crowd erupts. Pacquiao shakes it off and shoots in with a flush left to the jaw and Marquez falls to the canvas just 44 seconds into the fight. Marquez rises at the count of five and Cortez waves him back into action. Marquez backpedals into the corner with his guard held high as Pacquiao moves in. Marquez is trying to clear his head and he is moving well. Pacquiao tries the left again but Marquez catches it on his shoulder. He isn’t able to elude the left hook to the body by Pacquiao though, and he grunts upon impact. Pac-Man lands a left to the top of the head and follows it up with a right uppercut, putting JMM in trouble again. Marquez still has to survive 45 seconds, and he just eludes a sweeping left that could have ended it. Pacquiao is putting his punches together beautifully, but Marquez is hanging tough. The bell rings, ending a wild opening round. ROUND TO PACQUIAO BY TWO POINTS

ROUND TWO – The fighters meet at ring center and trade quick combinations. Pacquiao comes in wide and gets nailed with a crisp uppercut to the jaw. Pacquiao staggers briefly. Marquez moves in and throws with both hands. Pacquiao shoots out his left again, backing Marquez up. Now it’s Marquez’ turn to get rubber-legged. 1:30 left in the round, and for the first time in the fight, the boxers clinch. After the break Marquez moves in with a lightning fast right that nails Pacquiao, who begins to bleed from his lip. Pacquiao backs out with his hands down and pays for it, as Marquez puts him down with a left hook to the jaw. Pacquiao is up at three but his legs are unsteady. 30 seconds left. Marquez misses a wild left hook but lands with a brutal straight right. Pacquiao staggers to the ropes as the bell rings, saving him. ROUND TO MARQUEZ BY TWO POINTS

ROUND THREE – The fans have yet to sit down in this one, and the fighters barely hear the bell to begin the round. Pacquiao’s right eye is swelling up, and he clinches as Marquez moves in. Marquez nails Pac-Man with a heavy left hook, sending water spraying from his head. Pacquiao answers with a wild right that misses and Marquez makes him pay with a right of his own. As he moves in for the kill Marquez gets nailed with an uppercut to the jaw and the tide has turned again. Pacquiao lands a stiff 1-2, but Marquez answers with a combination of his own as the two wage war. Marquez lands a short uppercut on the inside and follows it up with a screaming left hook that hurts Pacquiao. ROUND TO MARQUEZ

ROUND FOUR – Pacquiao looks like he’s been through hell, while Marquez is unmarked. Both men actually decide to box for the first minute of the round, with JMM holding a slight edge. Midway through the round Pacquiao gets nailed again by a big Marquez uppercut and shakes his head in disgust. Pacquiao fires back and scores effectively, but just when he’s getting into a rhythm, Marquez wisely holds. Marquez lands a stiff jab and now Pacquiao is bleeding from a large cut over his right eye. Corte is watching Pacquiao carefully as his face is showing the effects of Marquez’ punches. ROUND TO MARQUEZ

ROUND FIVE – Marquez comes out jabbing but just when you thought he was going to coast to a win, Pacquiao explodes with a savage hook to the jaw, and Marquez is down for the second time in the fight. Cortez counts, and a clearly hurt Marquez needs the ropes to get up at the count of nine. Here comes Pac-Man, drilling Marquez with a 1-2 to the head. Pacquiao has Marquez on the ropes and two minutes to pull victory from the jaws of defeat. Pacquiao throws a series of blows but Marquez is able to deflect them. He isn’t able to get out of the way of a right cross to the head though. One minute to go, Pacquiao shoots two jabs through Marquez’ gloves and sends in a howitzer of a right hand that lands with a thud. Marquez’ legs start to sag and Cortez jumps in to halt the bout before any further damage can be done.

The time is 2:10 of round number five. Your winner…by technical knockout…the IBF and WBA featherweight champion of the world…Manny Pacquiao.

At the time of the stoppage, Marquez led 38-36 on all three judges’ scorecards.

[hockeystl]

Do you have any past data on this computers picks?

[hockeystl]

BTW, Pinny up to +148 JMM. Looks like they agree with the CPU, considering they were +128 on Mon.