Jeff Haney on the dime lines and three books that have gone a step further in best bets for baseball gamblers

[clevfan]

April 17, 2006
LAS VEGAS SUN

Jeff Haney on the dime lines and three books - Imperial Palace, Palms, Stratosphere - that have gone a step further in best bets for baseball gamblers

Each spring baseball bettors traditionally seek out sports books that offer a 10-cent betting line, or a "dime line," which historically has been the form of baseball wagering most advantageous for the gambler.

This year, three Las Vegas sports books have gone a step further.

The Imperial Palace, the Palms and the Stratosphere/Arizona Charlie's properties (whose sports books are linked) are offering an 8-cent baseball betting line, making them the best places in town to bet baseball.

First, a word of explanation on dime lines, 8-cent lines and other sorts of baseball lines, and why they are significant to bettors, who collectively risked $464 million on baseball wagers in Nevada sports books in 2005. That figure is about 20.5 percent of the $2.25 billion wagered overall in the state's sports books, according to the Gaming Control Board.

In sports such as football and basketball, bettors risk $1.10 for each $1 they're trying to win.

That line, the industry standard, is known as a 20-cent line. In a game in which each team is lined at minus-110, the house edge that the bettor must overcome, or the "theoretical hold," is about 4.5 percent.

Against a dime line, bettors have to risk only the equivalent of $1.05 for each $1 they're trying to win. The house's edge is reduced to about 2.3 percent in a game with each team listed at minus-105.

Against an 8-cent line, with bettors risking the equivalent of $1.04 for each $1 they're trying to win, the house's edge is reduced yet again, to about 1.9 percent in a game with each team listed at minus-104. With an 8-cent line, for example, if the favorite in a baseball game is minus-120 (risk $1.20 to win $1), the underdog would be plus-112 (risk $1 to win $1.12 plus your original stake).

For high-volume bettors, playing into an 8-cent line or a dime line as opposed to a less favorable line can mean a swing of thousands of dollars in the course of a summer.

But finding the most favorable lines is important to smaller, "recreational" gamblers as well.

Consider a bettor who plays $10 three-team baseball parlays. Suppose he wants to play the underdogs in three games in which the odds on the favored teams are minus-135, minus-130 and minus-125.

At a book with 20-cent lines, the parlay would pay $92.55. At a book with an 8-cent line, it would pay $109.84 - a difference of more than 1 1/2 betting units for our $10 player.

Sports book managers who deal an 8-cent line work on a thinner profit margin, but figure the attractive line will draw a greater amount of business to make up for it.

The Palms and the Stratosphere/Arizona Charlie's properties both offer "overnight" baseball lines as well, meaning they post odds each afternoon for betting on the next day's slate of games.

Following is a rundown of which betting lines other Las Vegas sports books are using this season:

Strong dime lines

These casinos offer the most favorable form of a dime line, keeping it intact until the price on the favored team reaches the minus-180 to minus-200 range (only then do they "break" the dime line and go to a 12- or 15-cent line): all Coast Casinos properties, all Station Casinos properties, all Leroy's books, El Cortez, the Las Vegas Hilton, the Plaza, the Stardust and Cal Neva (based in Northern Nevada, available here at the Tuscany).

Of these, Stations, Coasts, El Cortez and Leroy's offer overnight lines. The Hilton offers special wagering on the outcome of the first five innings of each game.

Modified dime lines

These casinos break their dime line early, shifting to a less favorable 15-cent line once the price on the favorite reaches the range of minus-135 to minus-160: Binion's, the Frontier, the Golden Nugget, Poker Palace, Rampart/Cannery (whose books are linked), Terrible's and Wynn Las Vegas.

Binion's has overnight lines.

15-cent lines

With a 15-cent line, if the favorite is minus-120, the underdog is plus-105. Casinos dealing a 15-cent baseball line are Caesars Palace and related properties, Jerry's Nugget and the Venetian. Caesars has overnight lines.

20-cent lines

The least advantageous form of baseball wagering, a 20-cent line, can be found at the Aladdin, the Hard Rock and the Mirage and related properties. None of these offer overnight lines.

[victorygallop]

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