Jeff Haney gets a few tips from a pro on betting March Madness

[clevfan]

March 13, 2006
LAS VEGAS SUN

Jeff Haney gets a few tips from a pro on betting March Madness

Looking for value in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, I consulted an informal "basic betting strategy" for March Madness mapped out by the Las Vegas professional gambler who goes by the handle Fezzik (one name only, please).

Following are just a few of the strategy's dictums and how they might apply to this year's early-round games:

1. Avoid teams that enter the tournament with a hot hand and might be overconfident. Seek out teams that had disappointing results in their conference tournament, and so have something to prove in the NCAA tournament, according to Fezzik's theory.

Syracuse brings perhaps college basketball's hottest hand into the tournament, coming off a Big East tournament championship in which it won all four games as an underdog. Syracuse takes on Texas A&M, which was ousted in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament. The Orange opened a two-point favorite.

Xavier won the Atlantic 10 tournament with a one-point victory against St. Joseph's, then celebrated as if it had just won the national championship game. It could be due for a letdown against Gonzaga, which also won its tournament in the West Coast Conference but probably feels it deserves better than a No. 3 seed. Gonzaga is laying six points.

West Virginia and North Carolina State sustained early exits from the Big East and Atlantic Coast tournaments and could be undervalued.

2. Pay attention to the sites of the first-round games. Look to back teams playing close to home and "fade," or bet against, teams that face long trips.

Among the teams that could enjoy an advantage are No. 1 seed Villanova, which plays its first-round game in Philadelphia, No. 2 Ohio State (Dayton), No. 3 Florida (Jacksonville), No. 1 Duke (Greensboro), No. 2 Texas (Dallas) and No. 2 UCLA (San Diego).

But Boston College, which plays Pacific in Salt Lake City as a 7 1/2-point favorite, could end up suffering from the highway blues.

3. Games involving No. 1 seeds carry huge point spreads and should be treated as special cases.

Despite the big lines, No. 1 seeds historically cover the spread at a high enough rate to be profitable, according to Fezzik - but the betting public typically backs the top seeds, driving the point spread even higher as tip-off approaches. If you want to play the favorite, it's usually wise to bet it early.

Determine whether each No. 1 seed is more likely to show mercy to their opponent once they open up a giant lead, or continue to pour it on and bury their foe.

Duke seems to fall into the latter category, with a record of 6-0 against the point spread as a favorite of more than 20 points this season.

Connecticut was 5-7 against the spread as a double-digit favorite - but did easily cover as a 42-point (!) favorite against Morehead State.

Memphis was 2-4 against the spread as a favorite of more than 20 points. Villanova, which will play the winner of Tuesday's Monmouth-Hampton game, was never favored by more than 20, but was only 3-7 against the spread as a double-digit favorite.

Even if that puts you off first-round plays on Villanova and Memphis, it shouldn't preclude the possibility of betting them on the first-half line.