Jeff Haney takes a look at which propositions have been most popular in the weeks leading up to Super Bowl XL

[clevfan]

February 03, 2006
LAS VEGAS SUN

Jeff Haney takes a look at which propositions have been most popular in the weeks leading up to Super Bowl XL


Of the hundreds of Super Bowl proposition wagers on the board at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, a handful have had significant movement in the betting line.

Propositions - or "props" - include any offbeat or unusal betting opportunity and have become an exceptionally popular way to bet on the Super Bowl.

In some cases, the moves were just corrections in the betting marketplace. Gamblers jumped on big differences in early betting lines on similar props at separate sports books around town and offshore, according to Hilton sports book Assistant Manager Jeff Sherman.

But the action on some of the props gives an indication of how the betting public expects various aspects of Sunday's Super Bowl, in which the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 4 to 4 1/2 points against the Seattle Seahawks, to play out. For example:


Bettors couldn't resist the juicy long-shot prices offered in the unlikely event the Seahawks win by more than a touchdown. The alternate line of Seattle minus 7 1/2 points has been bet down from plus-425 to plus-400 at the Hilton, and Seattle minus 10 1/2 points has been bet down from plus-600 to plus-500.

Bettors also took the "plus money" on the prop asking which team will score first, probably figuring the answer is close to a tossup in a game in which one team is favored by only 4 points. Seattle went from plus-110 to score first to even money.

The over/under in the Super Bowl has dropped ever so slightly from an opening line of 47 1/2 points to 47 in most places. Another option for bettors who don't foresee a shootout Sunday is to bet that there will be at least one scoreless quarter. The "yes" on that prop has gone from plus-270 to plus-240 at the Hilton.

Bettors don't expect any flea-flickers or other such trickery. Bettors are playing "under 2 1/2" on the prop asking the total number of players to have a passing attempt. The line on the under has dropped from plus-150 to plus-120.

Bettors expect a big game from Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander, driving the over/under on his total rushing yards from 87 to 89 1/2.

Bettors also expect Seattle's Joe Jurevicius to contribute offensively, betting the over/under on his total receiving yards from 25 1/2 to 28.

Bettors believe Steelers running back Jerome Bettis will score a touchdown. The "yes" on that prop has been bet up from minus-140 to minus-165.

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Las Vegas sports handicapper Mark Franco makes a compelling case for betting the "over" in the prop asking how many gross passing yards Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will compile Sunday.

Franco, who is online at francosports.com, points out that Roethlisberger has been outstanding throughout the playoffs and he expects more of the same as the Steelers have expanded their offense from a previously one-dimensional "power running game."

Roethlisberger enters the Super Bowl with a 68 percent completion rate (49-for-72) for 680 yards, eight touchdowns (seven passing) and a quarterback rating of 124.8 in the Steelers' three playoff victories. Further, the Steelers were nursing a lead in two of those games, so Roethlisberger threw the football even less than might have been expected, Franco said.

At the Las Vegas Hilton, the number on Roethlisberger's passing yards has crept up to 221 1/2 from an opener of 218 1/2.


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Oddsmakers at Caesars Palace traditionally come up with plenty of thought-provoking Super Bowl props, and this year is no exception.

Unique to Caesars are props that link the winner of the Super Bowl with the winner of the Daytona 500 (for example, a Steelers/Jimmie Johnson result would pay 8-1); the conference that produces the NCAA basketball tournament champion (Steelers/ACC, 9-2); and the winner of Saturday night's Ultimate Fighting title bout between Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture.

Caesars also offers a menu of "more/less" props on various individual player and team results. For instance, bettors can wager on whether Roethlisberger will finish with more than 172 1/2 but less than 222 1/2 yards.


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Wagering on TV ratings is not permitted in Nevada, but offshore book Pinnacle has set an over/under of 41 Nielsen rating points for Sunday's Super Bowl. That would be a drop from last year's Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots, which generated a Nielsen rating of 43.4, according to CNN.