Columnist Jeff Haney: Explaining why we shouldn't feel too badly for sports books this football season

[clevfan]

Columnist Jeff Haney: Explaining why we shouldn't feel too badly for sports books this football season

Jan 13
LAS VEGAS SUN


Reaction was strong and varied to our Jan. 2 column recapping how Nevada's sports books fared in football betting through the end of October, according to the most recent figures available from the state Gaming Control Board.

Those numbers showed that despite much ITAL Sturm und Drang ENDITAL about favored NFL teams covering the point spread at a nearly unprecedented rate this season -- usually a recipe for disaster for bookmakers -- books had actually won more than $55 million on football betting over the preseason and the first couple months of the regular season.

That represented a "hold" -- the percentage of money wagered that the casinos keep -- of better than 12 percent, well above average.

Football bettors and oddsmakers checked in with a wide range of responses. Some greeted the news with enthusiasm; others warned that the real "bloodbath" for the books began to take place in November.

This week, the Gaming Control Board released its latest figures covering the month of November -- and they show the state's sports books did sustain a reversal of fortune around the midpoint of the NFL season.

Nevada's casinos lost about $11.3 million on football betting in November, according to the Control Board.

That means heading into December -- figures for that month will be released in February -- the state's sports books were about $41.4 million in the black in football betting, college and pro combined, this season.

The total does not include a couple of million dollars they won in football's preseason, nor does it include action on parlay cards, which is tracked separately by the Control Board. The state's sports books won a little more than $12 million on parlay cards alone from September through November, a hold percentage of better than 28 percent, according to the Control Board.

Because casino companies do not release information on how much money their sports books win or lose, the numbers from the Gaming Control Board are the only such figures available to the public. Officials with some casinos address how their sports books fare against the bettors in broad terms; others refuse to speak even in generalities.

Meanwhile Curacao-based Pinnacle Sports, widely regarded as the leading offshore sports book, reported this week that some of its competitors are having a rough season in football betting.

Some offshore sports books that are owned by companies whose stock trades on foreign exchanges have gone so far as to issue profit warnings to the markets, according to Pinnacle.

One reads, "The NFL sports betting margins in the U.S. have been adversely affected recently as a result of a large number of favourites (sic) winning."

Another warns that profits could be "adversely affected by a run of poor trading results on professional American football."

* * *

Professional gambler Alan Boston is out to an early lead against handicapper Brent Crow heading into tonight's second round of the $50,000 "Beat Boston" college basketball betting contest sponsored by Leroy's sports books.

Boston went 4-2 against the point spread in his selections in last week's opening round, including a winner with his best bet, Cincinnati against Marquette. Crow, of Alatex Sports and online at sportsmemo.com, went 3-3, missing his best bet when Alabama lost to Mississippi.

Each man makes six picks a week from the Saturday college basketball card for eight consecutive weeks in the winner-take-all competition. Boston put up $30,000, and Crow, backed by an offshore sports book, put up $20,000 to make up the prize pot -- essentially making Boston a 3-2 favorite.

Boston predicted he would go 26-22 in his 48 picks; Crow said he believes his record will be 30-18.

There is no sanctioned wagering on the outcome of the contest. A local independent oddsmaker who set his own line said he had taken some action on Crow at plus-125 (risk $1 to win $1.25).

Boston, known for his outspokenness as well as his skill at handicapping college basketball, said late Friday night that he would make himself a 2-1 favorite to beat Crow.

Perhaps Crow will fire back at tonight's encounter, which takes place from 8 to 9 at the Riviera sports book and airs on KDWN 720-AM.

* * *

The Las Vegas Hilton, among the best sports books for its menu of "propositions" -- unique, offbeat wagering opportunities -- has already posted at least 40 propositions on this weekend's NFL playoff games.

Among them:

-- In Saturday's Patriots-Broncos game, rushing yards by Corey Dillon (over/under 60 1/2).

-- In Saturday's Redskins-Seahawks game, will Mark Brunell throw a touchdown pass or an interception first (TD, minus-140; interception, plus-110).

-- In Sunday's Steelers-Colts game, will Jerome Bettis score a touchdown (yes, plus-110; no, minus-140).

-- In Sunday's Panthers-Bears game, passing yards by Jake Delhomme (over/under 198 1/2).

Point spread and over/under wagering on each half and each quarter of the playoff games will also be available.

[stevo]

In Sunday's Steelers-Colts game, will Jerome Bettis score a touchdown (yes, plus-110; no, minus-140).

Where is this prop offshore?