Handicapper likes Cowboys to cover 3 vs. Chiefs behind QB

[clevfan]

Dec. 11, 2005
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Bledsoe should bounce back

Handicapper likes Cowboys to cover 3 vs. Chiefs behind QB

By MATT YOUMANS

REVIEW-JOURNAL


If it seemed the resurgence of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Drew Bledsoe was too good to be true, observe the regurgitation that has taken place the past month.

On Nov. 15, he was fourth in the NFL with a passer rating of 96.8. Bledsoe has been dreadful since, as his rating has dropped more than 10 points and he ranks 13th in the league.

Despite the 13-year veteran's funk, this is the day Bledsoe breathes life into Dallas' playoff hopes, said handicapper Jimmy Spatafore, who is siding with the 3-point home favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs.

"I realize Dallas is coming off a couple losses, and the Chiefs are coming off two huge wins against Denver and New England, but I believe Bledsoe is due for a big game, and that (coach Bill) Parcells will have his defense ready for this one," Spatafore said. "This defense is going to be able to shut down the rushing game."

Bledsoe has completed 52.8 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions in the last three games.

But safety Roy Williams and a hard-hitting defense could be the key. Spatafore (jimmyspats.com) pointed out the Cowboys are tough at home, allowing 13.5 points per game at Texas Stadium.

"I will side with the Parcells factor in this must-win situation," Spatafore said.

A former winner of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, Spatafore breaks down the rest of the Week 14 schedule:

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-5 1/2): Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden has restrained quarterback Chris Simms since he took over the starting role, and being that the Panthers bring a tough defense, Gruden's conservative ways will continue. The spotlight matchup has to be Tampa Bay cornerback Ronde Barber and Carolina wideout Steve Smith. Defense spells under the total (37).

New England (-3 1/2) at Buffalo: I expect huge payback here, as the Bills should win this game outright. Buffalo should have won Oct. 30 in a 21-16 loss. Now with the Patriots a bit banged up on both sides of the ball, I expect the Bills to rebound from last week's debacle in Miami and avenge that second-half collapse with a win over rival New England.

St. Louis at Minnesota (-7): Trust me here, the knee-jerk reaction in this one is to take the Vikings, as they've won five straight and the Rams are starting rookie quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick again. But time has to catch up with this team and 37-year-old Brad Johnson. I expect St. Louis to establish the running game early and control the tempo to get Minnesota out of its groove. I lean toward the Rams.

Chicago at Pittsburgh (-6): The Bears have scored seven offensive touchdowns in the last seven games, and they scored just six points off five possessions in Green Bay territory last week. And while defense wins games, you need an offensive unit to challenge a team capable of picking you apart. It's a great spot for the Steelers, who need to halt a three-game skid, otherwise the season will be over with a 7-6 record.

Oakland (-3) at New York Jets: Marques Tuiasosopo will make his first start of the season at quarterback for the Raiders. To be honest, you could start Charles Woodson at quarterback for Al Davis' team and it won't matter. The Jets are the worst team in the league, and I would lay money that coach Herman Edwards already has his eyes on Southern California running back Reggie Bush. The Jets have scored three points or fewer in three of their last four games, so go with Oakland.

Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville: The Colts can clinch the AFC South, and probably will. But that doesn't mean they have to cover the number. The Jaguars outplayed them in the first meeting in Indianapolis. Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio will have his team prepared. The Jaguars should cover with a balanced attack on both sides of the ball.

Houston at Tennessee (-6 1/2): Is there a team with tougher luck than the Texans? I doubt it, but I am giving the nod to Houston this week. Both teams have bad defenses. Protection is hard to come by in the trenches, but I think the Texans can get their running game going and keep the Titans' offense off the field.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-12 1/2): The Bengals will win this game, but after a huge emotional win over the Steelers, this will be a typical Ohio shootout that will keep the margin inside double digits. The Browns look like tough underdogs.

Washington (-3 1/2) at Arizona: The Redskins seem to get up for the mediocre opponents, and this should be no different as they're still playing for that playoff possibility. There's no doubt Washington has to win out the rest of the season. Redskins coach Joe Gibbs is 20-4 in his career against the Cardinals.

New York Giants (-8) at Philadelphia: The Giants' defense has come to life just in time, allowing an average of 13.5 points and 228 yards in the ast six games. That's roughly nine points less than they allowed in the first six games. Defensive end Osi Umenyiora is simply fierce, as he shares the NFL sacks lead with 11. On offense, plan on Tiki Barber to run up and down the field, draining the clock to keep this under the total (37 1/2).

San Francisco at Seattle (-16): The Seahawks need home-field advantage before they can stop blowing teams out. Their defense was stellar in a 42-0 blowout of the Eagles on Monday. The 49ers got the backdoor cover in the first meeting three weeks ago, but this one will be different as Seattle rolls at home.

Miami at San Diego (-13 1/2): Middle linebacker Zach Thomas has missed the last two games with shoulder and ankle injuries, but returns to his spot on the Dolphins defense. Without Thomas, Miami managed to hold the Bills' Willis McGahee to 81 yards on 27 carries last week. A comeback win like that has to provide some motivation to play all 60 minutes, so let's take an inflated number.

Baltimore at Denver (-14): The Ravens have lost nine straight road games, scoring 10 points or fewer six times. That doesn't necessarily tell us the Broncos can cover this game, but I think coach Mike Shanahan's team is upset after last week's loss to Kansas City and we'll see a romp.

Detroit at Green Bay (-5 1/2): Does this go down as the ugliest prime-time game of the season, right there with Saints-Jets a couple of weeks ago? The Lions are a complete mess, and consider the fact they have lost 33 of their last 37 road games, including 16 of 17 against NFC North opponents.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-10): How do we lay 10 points with a team that does not have a good offense? I am not impressed by Michael Vick and think the Falcons will have their hands full Monday. After this game, they face a trio ahead of them in the playoff race -- Chicago, Tampa Bay and Carolina -- and I can easily see this team looking past the Saints.

[YOUNG GUN]

The advantage here is betting KC.
You have the Chiefs + Bledsoe on your side...[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]