Kentucky Derby

[Buck Swope]

Here are my early thoughts:

Cliffs Edge: Blue Grass was the best effort by a 3yo this year, the horse to beat, anything over 8-1 is a steal
Action This Day: Won the Juvy at 26-1, will go off in the Derby at the same odds, worst form in the race
Friends Lake: early guess as the "wise guy" horse, we won the Fla Derby at 37-1, no way can I bet him now at less than half that
Smarty Jones: a definite tote play - I have no idea how he will get bet because he gets no respect - like him at 10-1, not so much at 5-1
Tapit: my fade horse, very slow Wood this year and Dickinson preps horses for 4/5 yo campaigns, will be overbet and might even be fave
Castledale: won Sa Derby at 30-1, will go off in KY at about half that - no thanks
Limehouse: he's interesting at 40-1, will be on the bottom sides of my exotics, loved his Tampa Bay Derby
Lion Heart: he cannot win this race but he will contend and probably lead coming for home , at 10-1 will use him underneath on my exotics
Read The Footnotes: gotta watch the workouts, if he is sharp I think he has a big shot at 20-1+
Wimbledon: will be overbet around 12-1 because of name/jock/trainer, won a weak La Derby - pass
Pollards Vision: is this War Emblem II? Won the Ill Derby with a nice figure at 25-1 he's definitely usable if you think he'll rate (I do)
Imperialism: finished behind Castledale in his last, nein
Minster Eric: I have no clue what Mandella is going with his horse -6.5 turf claimer? - buts its not a way to win the Derby
Birdstone: As WWF theme music goes - "no chance in hell" - will be a good one down the road
Borrego: I like this horse but I just don't think he is good enough, will give you a honest effort though - fgures for 4th 5th 6th at 12-1ish
Sinister G - I lied about Action This Day - this is the worst horse in the race - the father/son TV angle should make for some awful TV
Qintons Gold Rush: huge race in his first for Asmussen - will definitely use him around 20-1 - dont think he can win though
Value Plus: silly rrrrraaaaaabbbbiiiiittttttt trix are for kids: will he or Sinister finish last?
St Averil: finished 6th behind Castledale is his last - weak Derby connections also
Master David: Frankel plus he finished 2nd in the Wood - will be grossly overbet - another "wise guy" candidate - no thanks

[rockingham]

This field looks especially weak, which is disappointing as the Kentucky Oaks field looks great. At least the filly and mare future looks exciting for the next few years.

As far as the derby this year, there is no horse it seems worth betting at under 10-1. Read the Footnotes and Birdstone were both fighting bias' in their latest, but each would have benefited from another prep race. There is no stand out in this race, so the standard handicapping factors (price, track bias, pace scenario etc.) will determine my bets.

[Buck Swope]

If any of you boys are the prospecting types, Rock Hard Ten can be found at 30-1, which will be a bargain "IF" he gets in the race.

[hatman]

has been a long time since no horse really stands out going into the derby.i think there are going to be some nice prices in this race.

[Links72]

Great betting race, if you're right Telephone Number Exotic Payoffs !

[Handyman]

Originally posted by: Links72
Great betting race, if you're right Telephone Number Exotic Payoffs !

With or without area code? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Loman]

Am taking a long hard look at Read The Footnotes.Would also consider Wimbledon at a price,but doubt the price will be square.

[Buck Swope]

The thing about the Derby is that predicting odds is pretty much guesswork since most of the pool is square action and they bet who they read about in the paper that morning.

I predict right now that Master David gets tremendously overbet - probably like 6 or 8-1.

[Loman]

Buck I agree.Like to wait for race day and see prices and look for value.Unfortunately this year will be at the beach with no tv.So may have to just play the horses I like and try to guess where the value will be.The money is gonna be spraed all over the place here.So any exacta will pay well.

[Fatl]

I don't think this year's crop is weak, I think it appears that way because the race is so ride open, but I think there are a lot here that could do very well against older horses.

[Buck Swope]

Originally posted by: Fatl
I don't think this year's crop is weak, I think it appears that way because the race is so ride open, but I think there are a lot here that could do very well against older horses.

That's because the best older horses in the world are currently "bangiing away" for 15k a pop.

[kris]

I heard this morning that if some of the jockey's cant wear certain patches that they want, WE MAY NOT HAVE A KENTUCKY DERBY!!! Is there any truth to this???

[Buck Swope]

I have gotten it down to the lucky 7

Lion Heart
Cliff's Edge
Borrego
Read The Footnotes
Smarty Jones
Pollards Vision
Qintons Gold Rush

[Rookies]

BUCK: WE'RE CLOSE ! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Ok. Here's what I'm looking at based on a couple of factors:

1) A +110 Beyers tends to win the Kentucky Derby
2) A runner up in the G1 Wood or Arkansas Derbies is also often a winner at the KD.

Therefore- look at these ( By Pole Position):

#3 Lion Heart @ 10-1 TOP BEYER = 110
Life: 5-3-2-0 = $500k, 2003 2-2-0-0, G1 & G3 Winner
2004 2-0-2-0 $190k 2nd. by 1/2 in G1 Bluegrass, 2nd., 2nd. by Neck in G2 San Rafael

#11 The Cliff's Edge @ 4-1 TOP BEYER = 111 TOP TOMLINSON ( WET ) = 400
Life: 6-4-2-1 = $830k, 2003 5-3-1-0, G2 & G3 Winner
2004 3-1-1-1 = $500k, 1st. by 1/2 in the G1 Bluegrass, 3rd. by 1/2. in Flo G1

#14 Read the Footnotes @ 12-1 TOP BEYER = 113
Life: 7-5-0-0 = $450k, 2003 5-4-0-0, G2 & G3 Winner
2004 2-1-0-0 = $210k, 1st. by Neck in G2, 4th.by 4 in Flo G1

Others I like that are close to the 110 Beyers:

# 15 Smarty Jones @ 9/2 TOP BEYER = 108
Life: 6-6-0-0 = $878k, 2003 2-2-0-0
2004 4-4-0-0 G2 Winner at Arkansas Derby

# 17 Pollard's Vision @ 20-1 TOP BEYER = 107 TOP TOMLINSON = 431
Life: 10-3-2-3 = $445k, 2003 6-1-1-2
2004 4-2-1-1, 1st. in G2 Illinois, 3rd. in Louisiana Derby

#12 Borrego @ 20-1 TOP BEYER = 105
Life: 7-2-3-0 $400k, 2003 4-2-0-0
2004 3-0-3-0 2nd. in G2 Arkansas and G2 Lousiana

Therefore, I am leaning to the 3/11/15/17. If WET, obviously the 11 & 17 will be going on top of my ticket !

[Buck Swope]

Rook,

You looks to be a numbers like me. I'm guessing you can't figure out this Tapit bandwagon either.

[Buck Swope]

R4

Tri 15/15/89

[kris]

I just hit the 1st race(exacta) 30$ horse on top, BOOYAHHH, IM FEELING IT GUYS!!! Check out the Racetrack forum for all my plays this afternoon!!

[Buck Swope]

When do we get TV coverage?

[kris]

Turn it on to ESPN they have coverage all day long, until 5pm, which then NBC takes over!!!