Columnist Jeff Haney: On the Value in picking a Super Bowl

[clevfan]

Columnist Jeff Haney: On the Value in picking a Super Bowl

Nov 25, 2005
LAS VEGAS SUN

Is it too late in the NFL season to find value in the Las Vegas odds on which team will win the Super Bowl?

Not by a long shot.

Even after throwing out the eight teams with records of 3-7 or worse, you would not quite be able to lock in a profit by scouring Las Vegas casinos for the best odds on the remaining 24 teams and spreading your bets accordingly.

But you could come reasonably close, thanks largely to aggressive maneuvering of the betting lines by a handful of sports books.

The unbeaten Indianapolis Colts remain heavy favorites to win Super Bowl XL, to be held Feb. 6 in Detroit, at even money or less in most books. The Colts are still listed at 6-5, or plus-120 (win $1.20 for each $1 risked) at Wynn Las Vegas and all Station Casinos properties.

Following are the best available odds on the rest of the field, broken down by division (heading into Thursday's games):

AFC East: The Patriots are 20-1 at the Palms and Binion's; the Bills 500-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton; the Dolphins 1,000-1 at the Hilton and the Plaza.

AFC South: The Jaguars are 60-1 at the Hilton.

AFC North: The Steelers are 14-1 at the Hilton and the Palms; the Bengals 27-1 at the Venetian; the Browns 5,000-1 at the Hilton.

AFC West: The Broncos were 14-1 at Binion's before Thursday's game against the Cowboys; the Chargers 25-1 at Binion's; the Chiefs 60-1 at the Palms and the Hilton; the Raiders 1,000-1 at the Hilton.

NFC East: The Cowboys were 15-1 at the Imperial Palace before Thursday's game against the Broncos; the Giants 20-1 at the Hilton; the Redskins 100-1 at the Palms; the Eagles 125-1 at the Palms.

NFC South: The Panthers are 16-1 at the Venetian; the Buccaneers 35-1 at Binion's; the Falcons were 25-1 at the Hilton before Thursday's game against Lions.

NFC North: The Bears are 25-1 at the Plaza and the Imperial Palace; the Vikings 125-1 at the Imperial Palace; the Lions were 500-1 at the Hilton before Thursday's game against the Falcons.

NFC West: The Seahawks are 15-1 at the Venetian; the Rams 300-1 at the Palms and the Hilton.


•••
Reader Ed Collins followed up on our Oct. 24 column comparing parlay card payouts at various Las Vegas sports books by calculating the "house edge" -- the amount of money the casino expects to keep on a particular wager after paying out winning bets, expressed as a percentage -- on each of parlay cards mentioned in the article.

His work backed up our assessment that the city's best bet for parlay card players is the Plaza's 229-1 payout for connecting on an eight-teamer. That translates into a house edge of just more than 10 percent -- not bad for such a long-shot proposition.

By comparison, a three-teamer that pays off at 6-1 gives the house a 12.5 percent edge; four-teamers paying 12-1, five-teamers paying 25-1 and six-teamers paying 51-1 all carry an 18.75 percent house edge; a seven-teamer paying 99-1 carries a 21.88 percent house edge; a nine-teamer paying 439-1 carries a 14 percent house edge; and a 10-teamer paying 899-1 carries a 12 percent house edge.


•••
Ed Salmons of the Las Vegas Hilton sports book goes up against one-name professional gambler Fezzik tonight in the Stardust Invitational football handicapping contest (9 p.m. at the Stardust).

Oddsmakers at offshore sports book Olympic see the match as a tossup, requiring bettors to lay minus-115 (risk $1.15 to win $1) on either Salmons or Fezzik.

In the last quarterfinal matchup of the Leroy's Money Talks $50,000 Invitational tonight, online gaming columnist and local radio show host Buzz Daly faces East Coast gambler Bill Krackman (8 p.m. at the Riviera).

With five contestants left in the Leroy's competition, Daly is a 7-1 long shot to win the title, according to the unofficial "underground" Las Vegas betting line. Krackman is plus-525 to win the championship.

Wagering on the outcome of the contests is not permitted in Nevada per state gaming regulations.


•••
Several sports books continue to offer odds each week on whether the Colts will finish the regular season unbeatend at 16-0.

At Wynn Las Vegas, the price on "No," the Colts will not go undefeated, is minus-400 (risk $4 to win $1); the “Yes” is plus-300 (win $3 for each $1 risked).

More favorable odds on the "No" can be found at the Hilton (minus-360) and a better price on the “Yes” at the Palms (plus-325).

[Bobby C]

GO ED!!!