Bettors flying high! - Touts are on losing end of current run

[clevfan]

Bettors flying high!


Touts are on losing end of current run

GAMING TODAY
11/22/2005 - by Ron Fortune

While Nevada bookmakers are taking it on the chin from football bettors, touts and handicappers are finding the process of picking winners an elusive if not perplexing one.

For instance, last week Doc released his legendary Big 10 Game of the Year (Wisconsin over Iowa) and Wayne Allen Root touted an outlandish (even for him) "Game of the Decade" in Wyoming versus BYU – both losers.

Moreover, the Stardust Invitational contestants – arguably the industry’s top sports handicappers – have been lackluster at best with their picks.

Through the first 11 weeks of head-to-head competition, the Stardust handicappers – who each pick seven games against the spread – are a dismal 73-75-6. The losing mark is the worst for this late in the season in the storied history of the tournament.

So, if favorites in the NFL are winning nearly 60 percent of the time, what’s the problem here?

"That’s part of your answer – the favorites are winning," said David Stratton, managing editor of GamingToday and 2003 winner of the Stardust Invitational. "Most public handicappers readily admit that they favor underdogs, and this season the dogs collectively have been the wrong side."

Stratton, who won the Stardust contest by picking 60 percent winners (21-14), said handicappers shade their selections toward underdogs for three primary reasons: dogs historically (especially at home) have a slightly higher win percentage than favorites; underdogs are more lucrative bets on the money line; and picking underdogs is often perceived as having "insider" information.

"How much insight is there in picking a team that’s a 24-point favorite," Stratton said. "But if you can tab a 12-point underdog that wins outright, you’re a genius."

Another factor that has hampered sports touts is reliance on the "value" of the betting line. Too many prognosticators spend too much time handicapping the numbers, rather than the teams that are meeting on the field, according to one high-stakes bettor who asked that his name be withheld.

"You listen to these guys talk about the various win percentages based on the various numbers, they talk about the various ‘subsets’ within the bet and so forth," the bettor said. "But they all seem to ignore the obvious albeit simple question – which team is going to win the game?"

Indeed, the question seems simple enough but is in fact very powerful in determining pointspread winners.

"For years there has been an axiom that in the NFL, the points come into play only about 10- to 15 percent of the time," said Richard Saber, a GT sports consultant and former sportsbook manager of several Strip casinos. "And it’s true today – if you can pick the winner of the game, you will have beaten the spread 80 percent to 90 percent of the time."

Another reason that handicappers use elaborate, actuary-like mathematical calculations to support their selections is the notion of "sharp" analysis versus "square" thinking.

Although it may sound like a music teacher’s admonition, "sharps and squares" has to do with knowledgeable bettors versus the ignorant public bettors.

"Unfortunately, the ignorant, square public right now is eating the sharpies’ lunch," said the high-stakes sports bettor. "Sometimes, you can become too sophisticated and outsmart yourself."

Nevertheless, most sports handicappers believe – and are betting on – underdogs returning to form.

Steve Fezzik, a high profile bettor and handicapper for Las Vegas Advisor Sports, in Week 10 of the NFL picked 11 underdogs from the 14 games on the card.

"I am aggressively looking to back dogs, as I am virtually certain you could just bet every dog the rest of the year vs. the inflated lines and likely win money," Fezzik said in releasing the selections.

Unfortunately, only three of the underdogs covered while eight went down to defeat.

Despite the weekend’s 3-8 mark, Fezzik was undeterred. "I know this may well seem like an overly simplistic analysis, but I assure all this is a very powerful method that has worked year after year after year," Fezzik said. "I predict the NFL favorite players get annihilated the rest of the year."

Maybe Fezzik is right. Last Sunday, NFL favorites were only 6-8 against the spread, the first time this season that they had a losing record.

Sports book directors certainly hope the new underdog "trend" will continue.

[Bucky]

Good article!

[Minnow]

My husband likes to read the free plays of a capper, and when he sees a "best bet" he is 99% certain that the guy is taking the dog, so it helps when they list the game the pay-for pick is on.

Who thinks this chalky streak will continue for the rest of the season?

[stevo]

Great read..........I read over at Fezziks and he does remain pretty cool in the face of all his detractors at the site.

Not much to complain about when you are getting picks for free but some on the site find a way.

Of course he is going to remain undeterred. Whats he supposed to say? If he didnt stay the course he would have to admit he believes that what had worked for 20 (barring the last two) years won't work anymore. No way he does that.