Columnist Jeff Haney: Bengals and Jaguars start hot vs. spread

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Columnist Jeff Haney: Bengals and Jaguars start hot vs. spread

LAS VEGAS SUN
SEPT 28

Respected football handicapper and author Kevin O'Neill delivered the line of the week last Friday night at the Stardust.

Participating in the casino's annual invitational handicapping contest, O'Neill prefaced his remarks on the Cincinnati Bengals-Chicago Bears game by stating that he boldly planned to "go against the Super Bowl champion Bengals."

It was a wry commentary on the groundswell of support from gamblers that the Bengals are generating of late. Yes, Cincinnati has become a "public" team -- a designation applied in years past to the likes of the Dallas Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers, meaning recreational bettors love to play them at the windows.

O'Neill's quip was funny; his analysis backing the Bears appeared solid and well-reasoned. Yet the last laugh again came at the expense of those who bet against the Bengals.

Cincinnati improved its record to 3-0 against the point spread with its 24-7 victory against Chicago. The Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars, also 3-0 against the spread (ATS), are the only two NFL teams that remain unbeaten ATS this season.

Three teams -- the Arizona Cardinals (0-3 ATS), the Baltimore Ravens (0-2) and the Houston Texans (0-2) -- have yet to cover the spread. Of the two unbeaten teams ATS, the Bengals, also 3-0 straight-up, are commanding much more respect from oddsmakers since the beginning of the season.

On an early betting line from the summer, for instance, the Plaza sports book -- which posts point spreads on every NFL game before the season starts -- listed the Bengals as a 4 1/2-point favorite against the Houston Texans in Sunday's Week 4 matchup. When the updated line on that game came out Sunday at the Stardust, the Bengals were favored by 10 points. The point spread in the game now sits at 9 1/2 or 10 throughout Las Vegas.

Local handicapper Patrick Bartucci saw the Bengals' hot start coming -- and he went public with his opinion in this space on May 18. Bartucci was quoted in that day's column saying his two strongest season-long NFL plays were the Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to each win more than seven games. Though it's a long season, both wagers look good so far -- the Bengals and the Bucs are undefeated after three games.

The Jaguars are 2-1 straight-up, having covered a 9-point spread against the Indianapolis Colts in a 10-3 loss in the season's second week. In contrast to the Bengals' status, oddsmakers have not dramatically adjusted their view of the Jaguars. On the Plaza's early line, the Jaguars were favored by 3 1/2 points against the Denver Broncos in Sunday's Week 4 matchup. The current line has Jacksonville favored by 4, though two key players -- cornerback Champ Bailey and receiver Rod Smith -- are listed as questionable for the Broncos.

They're not unbeaten ATS, but the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots continue to reward their backers after a dazzling 11-3-2 mark against the number last season.

The Patriots, 2-1 ATS, are sharply dividing the opinions of professional bettors -- some say the point spreads on New England's games are inflated whereas others are reluctant to step in front of that speeding locomotive.

In last week's Stardust invitational, for example, each contestant came in on either side of the Patriots game, with O'Neill making New England plus 3 points his best bet of the week and "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach taking the Pittsburgh Steelers minus 3. Ginsbach recommended the same play in this column last week, but failed to cash when the Patriots won outright.

In the Leroy's "Money Talks" Invitational, handicapper Adam Meyer also liked the Steelers, opining that Pittsburgh should have been a 6-point favorite.

Big bettors were firing away on both New England and Pittsburgh once the spread hit 3 points at Pinnacle Sports, a major offshore book based in Curacao, according to oddsmaker Simon Noble. "Sharp action" -- meaning money from professional bettors -- drove the opening line from 2 1/2 to 3, according to Noble.

The Patriots, missing safety Rodney Harrison, are 5 1/2-point favorites against the San Diego Chargers this week. The Patriots were favored by 6 1/2 on the early line at the Plaza.

Arizona, with the league's worst record ATS, has had its stock drop in the eyes of oddsmakers since the preseason. On the Plaza's early line, the Cardinals were 7-point favorites in Sunday's Week 4 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The Las Vegas Hilton sports book -- which posts point spreads on more than 80 "games of the year" in May -- opened the Cardinals as 6 1/2-point favorites on its early line.

The Cardinals -- who will be missing quarterback Kurt Warner in the game, which is to be played in Mexico City -- are currently favored by only 2 1/2 points.

Contest updates

Both contestants had losing records in the Stardust invitational, with O'Neill (3-4) advancing past Ginsbach (1-6). This week, sports book officials Ed Salmons and Rich Dressler square off (9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust race and sports book). ... In the $50,000 Leroy's invitational, Meyer was ousted by Alf Musketa. This week, it's "Krackman" against Jorge Gonzales (8 p.m. Friday at the Riviera).



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