Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee

[BigMo]

Dean is a sell right now, imo. Overpriced. He is at 52 on the wsex interactives, down from 58 yesterday.

He will place 4th in Iowa, which will be a loss for him considering he's lived there for months trying to frontload the momentum. But not too many people realize the primary rules have changed, a Jimmy Carter or bill clinton type is a much longer shot today than they were then. The primaries have been compressed so an outsider has little chance of gaining name recognition and momentum resulting in donations and organization, before the next wave of primaries is upon him.

Yes Dean has higher name rec and more money, but he has bigger hurdles because of his backround and experience.

Besides his recent declines in Iowa, one month ago he comanded almost 50% of the vote in NH, he has half that now.

He has also shown substantial slippage in national polls over the last month.

There is a chance he may actually not even place first in NH, an outside one, but if he doesn't finish first it will be once again a big loss, the flavor of the month will be left atop mount washington. Most important is he will score in the 20's along with clark and kerry, and he will be on the down slope while they will be rising. so it will be a 3 man race at that point and dean interactive prices should drop to the low 40's even the 30's within the month.

Wesley clark is the new flavor, but he has trouble with staying power, once the treasure chest of negative backround on him is fed to the public, the republican turned democrat who got his butt fired in the Balkans will lose some ground.

Kerry will win Iowa, his numbers are rising in NH, he has the best organization, and the most money, as well as rising numbers nationwide. His uptrend is not a flash surge, he is not a brash guy nor is his campaign one of these "alternative" types like Clark or Dean.

His record also happens to be the most tested of the democrats, and he has the most opinion makers on his side.

My opinion a year and a half ago on this board was he would be the nominee and it hasn't changed. Currently buy priced at 22 at wsex, he should be able to command a sell price in the low 30's within the month.

[The Actuary]

IMO You would be better off just selling him for 42 in the Iowa caucus at tradesports if you think that will be the outcome.

[KidVegas]

I believe Dean will finish first or second in Iowa. If Dean finishes 4th it would be a crushing defeat. His N.H. poll numbers have stayed firm at 28% for the past week. Kerry has risen from the dead and has closed the gap on Clark in N.H. Clark has actually lost % points this week. Thats not good considering he is the only one in N.H. campaigning.

[BigMo]

Not sure how much folks know about how the iowa caucuses work, but the short story is voters second choice is very important. If candidates don't get to 15% in one of the 1900 caucuses, they cannot submit their votes for that caucus. They are then left to vote for one of the other candidates.

By far the most popular 2nd choice right now is Kerry so he has a lot of hidden strength. I imagine Dean's disaffected message has appeal to new voters, and those for the most part aren't counted in the polls, so he has some hidden stregth as well.

As for the polls in NH, the primary is 8 days away and that is an eternity, just look at the changes in Iowa over the last week.

Riding the mo coming out of Iowa, and the effectiveness of his negative attacks on clark, Kerry will rise in the NH polls fast and hard, while Dean will continue his downslope. That is why I think there is a real possibility Kerry can win NH.

Once that is over there are a spate of smaller primaries, and some home based ones including Mizzu for gephardt, and SC for Edwards, but included are some northern primaries which will play well for Kerry and Dean leading up to the march 2nd freeforall. By mid feb. a clear path for Kerry will be emerging.

[Railbird]

I know Bush Sr was Pat Robertsons little bitch in Iowa.

[Fishhead]

Getting DEAN right now at 51 is great value!!!

Kerry may well indeed win the Iowa Caucus, BUT BIG HAIRY DEAL!!!!

[Fishhead]

Originally posted by: Fishhead
Getting DEAN right now at 51 is great value!!!

Kerry may well indeed win the Iowa Caucus, BUT BIG HAIRY DEAL!!!!

Listen up batposters!

[BigMo]

I hope the posters here are more advanced than riding a play because someone screams "value" and "BIG HAIRY DEAL!!!!".

If you have any actual analysis, lets here it.

Dean could wind up the victor, but not before his numbers dip into a 3 way race, so why should Dean backers buy now when better prices will be available?

Btw, Kerry interactive number up 4 points from this post last night.

[Fishhead]

BigMo-

My word alone is usually gospel in the MESS HALL.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Gephart wins Iowa.

[Fishhead]

Buzz- You better round up some WSEX futures on Gephardt then...........trading at a mere $5 currently!

[BigMo]

My word alone is usually gospel in the MESS HALL

Your self inflation reminds me of a polititians, what a net waste.

[Fishhead]

Yes, or that of Barry Bonds.

[Picksix]

BigMO,

Thanks for the breakdown!

Good Stuff!

[OMAR]

Shares of Edwards at $11 are a steal, IMO.

I just picked up a few more shares this morning at $10.

Here’s an interesting article by Michael Graham, a radio-talk-show host. Laugh at my source if you must, but I think he makes some valid points:

“IOWA LIKES SOUTHERNERS: The Iowa caucuses created the Jimmy Carter candidacy. George W. Bush won there handily and even Pat Robertson of Virginia did surprisingly well in the Hawkeye state. Maybe it's a rural thing, or maybe it's the drawl, who knows?

IOWA LIKES SURPRISES: John Edwards is polling well — in second or third place in some polls — so it wouldn't exactly be a surprise to close observers if he pulled out a win. But to the typical American, who's currently more interested in New England's Tom Brady than John Kerry, an Edwards win would be viewed as a major upset of presumptive nominee Howard Dean.
Just as they did for Carter, Gary Hart, and George McGovern, the Iowa caucuses could launch a relative unknown yet again.

IOWA LIKES TO ARGUE: This isn't a primary, it's a caucus. You get together, you spend a couple of hours talking to your neighbors, you debate, and then you pick sides. Some recent polling showed that half of all those attending the caucuses might possibly change their minds tonight. There could be significant votes up for grabs.
Dean's caucusers are going to be obnoxious granola-crunchers. Dick Gephardt will have thick-armed union members menacing the crowds. Kerry's team will share anecdotes they heard on NPR. But John Edwards is a trial lawyer — he will be represented at many of the caucuses by fellow lawyers.
Trial lawyers, particularly experienced litigators, make their living persuading small groups of civic-minded people dealing with difficult decisions. It's very possible Edwards could start the evening in fourth place and end up in first.”
--------------------------------
Dean is on the way down. His percentage points have to go somewhere.

Clark is picking up some endorcements (Like Michael Moore), but he’s not a very good liar and can’t possibly go the distance.

Edwards and Kerry have the most to gain, and I like the price point of Edwards right now. If he shows well in Iowa, then he’ll do great in South Carolina.

[Fishhead]

Edwards to $14

I can understand that.....he will make a good showing tonight no doubt.

I think it Edwards is a long term threat to DEAN.

KERRY is to funny looking.

[BigMo]

Fish your pump up of dean and edwards so you can dump it is transparent. But your hard work is not being effective as Dean slips further to 50.

We do agree on one thing though, your life time batting average is the same as Barry Bonds.

Omar, edwards has no money and no organization, he will get trounced in NH and show poorly in the other early northern primaries, SC will be his last stand. Tough to see how there is any profit in that position, even in the short run.

The compression of the primary schedule will kill this guy, and a lot of bettors like kidvegas will be shorting him every time his stock rises.

[KidVegas]

Carphead, Thanks for the "good value" on Dean at $58 & "great value" on Dean at $51. Howard Dean now at $47. I believe Mo might be right that you are pumping Dean up so you can dump his shares.

[Fishhead]

Now DEAN is TREMENDOUS value!!

Think longterm folks!