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| Mess Hall Online Sportsbook Discussion |
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01-19-2004, 09:03 PM
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 RE:Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee Edwards has reached the goal of 20 million in donations by today. That puts him in the ballpark. As far as organization, he's weak right now, but if the media spins things his way after Iowa's results there's no telling what will happen. Profit? I'm not trying to win the lottery here. Hell, I could be selling after tonight. Bought at 10...... sold at 20.... sounds good to me. Dean would have to fall below 30 for you to make the same %  |
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01-19-2004, 09:37 PM
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| RE: Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee Fish, Dean is only a great buy if he were to win Iowa. If he does'nt win Iowa his shares are sure to drop. And Dean will fall further if Kerry wins because Kerry would take that momentum to N.H. to close the 9% gap he now trails Dean. |
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01-19-2004, 09:41 PM
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| RE:Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee I am loaded to the gills on Gephardt and plan on exitting after next Tuesday.
__________________ Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas! Luke M |
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01-19-2004, 09:45 PM
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| RE:Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee Dean is currently fairly valued for today, and the probable outcome of tonights action. If anyone would like to keep up to the minute value using a probability model, go here: fishgoof's Omar, I understated the financial position of Edwards, thanks for the correction. It is fair to say he trails both Kerry ($30mil) and Dean ($40mil) by a large margin. Good luck on the short term play. |
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01-20-2004, 12:45 AM
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| RE: Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee gephardt quits |
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01-20-2004, 01:00 AM
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| RE:Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee Quote:
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01-20-2004, 01:07 AM
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| RE:Selling Dean as the Dem. nominee Jan 19, 8:49 PM (ET) By RON FOURNIER DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - John Kerry seized the lead as Iowa Democrats began their first-in-the-nation voting Monday, according to preliminary results of an Associated Press survey of Iowa Democrats, the initial step in the battle to face President Bush this fall. The survey showed John Edwards and Howard Dean battling for second, with Dick Gephardt, the winner of the 1988 caucuses, falling short of the victory he needs. Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner - and anything less than a victory for him would reshape the crowded field. "We in Iowa are marking the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency," Kerry, a Massachusetts' junior senator told supporters in Ames, Iowa, his voice hoarse and halting. "That's what this is all about." The survey, done for The Associated Press and the networks, was a measure of initial preference only. The final results could differ because party rules force caucus-goers to choose another candidate if their first choice doesn't meet a 15 percent threshold. With pre-caucus polls showing the race a dead heat, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry fought for the state's 45 delegates - out of 2,162 needed to claim the nomination - and for momentum heading into New Hampshire's primary eight days later. Democratic party officials cited jammed parking lots and large numbers of voters registering at caucus sites as indications of a record turnout. Caucus organizers ran out of voter registration forms at Horace Mann School in downtown Iowa City, and about 100 people still were standing in a line that encircled the school at 6:30 p.m. At Iowa City Precinct 9, meeting at All Nations Baptist Church, the meeting started at least 15 minutes late because of the number of attendees. At least 200 people packed the church cafeteria and 75 were waiting to get in. "This is definitely bigger than anything I've ever seen," said veteran caucus-goer Dianne Dillon-Ridgely. Secretary of State Chet Culver said all indications pointed to a record turnout and record voter registration. "We've been setting every record imaginable in the last few months," Culver said. He said 95 percent of eligible Iowans are registered to vote. A close finish in Iowa might muddle the race as the eight-person field heads to New Hampshire, where retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman await. As the contest tightened in Iowa in recent days, Democrats began expressing fears that two or more candidates could lock into a longer-than-expected nomination fight that would benefit Bush. Dean entered the year a clear front-runner but lost his lead in Iowa and saw it shrink in New Hampshire after a rough two weeks. Stung by criticism of his record on race relations, Medicare and trade, Dean said a week ago he was tired of being the party's "pin cushion," and suddenly looked weak to voters drawn to his blustery image. Gephardt gambled a few days later with an ad highly critical of Dean. The front-runner's approval rating dropped. Voters who started second-guessing Dean drifted to Edwards or Kerry. Suddenly, it was a four-way race. Iowa's contest was certain to reshape the race for New Hampshire, where retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman await the rest of the field for the Jan. 27 primary. As the contest tightened in Iowa in recent days, Democrats began expressing fears that two or more candidates could lock into a longer-than-expected nomination fight that would benefit Bush. The caucuses, a three-decades-old staple of American politics, inspired speeches and strategy to the end. The entrance poll showed that a third of voters said they picked their candidate in the last week, a trend that Democrats said likely favored the surging Kerry and Edwards. Half were first-time voters, but Dean didn't dominate that category as expected; Kerry and Edwards also had their share. Health and the economy were their top issues. One in four said their top priority was a candidate who could beat Bush. About three-fourths disapproved of the war in Iraq; Kerry and Dean fared well among the half who strongly disapproved. Hours before the neighborhood meetings began in 99 counties, officials said Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio had agreed to ask supporters to swing behind Edwards in cases where they lacked the numbers to qualify for delegates. Though small in numbers, Kucinich's supporters could make a difference in a tight race. The agreement was a blow to Gephardt, who had hoped to win Kucinich supporters. The Kerry campaign appeared nonplussed by the deal. "If we aren't viable, we will reach out to all campaigns because this is not about cutting deals, this is about beating George Bush," said Kerry campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter. Political ads seemed to squeeze out entertainment shows on TV. Four pricey get-out-the-vote operations sent thousands of volunteers and professional organizers to knock on doors, mail fliers, poll voters and train precinct captains in the art of caucus politics. At 6 p.m. CST, in schools, living rooms and other caucus sites, tens of thousands of Iowans were coming out of the cold and splitting into groups - Edwards voters here, Gephardt people there, Kerry folks in the back and Dean backers along the wall. Kucinich was expected to get a significant showing at a few caucuses. Their numbers were to be counted, then recounted after the campaigns competed neighbor-by-neighbor for voters who remained undecided or became free agents because their candidates didn't get enough votes to go forward. AP: Late-Deciding Voters Favor Kerry, Edwards... 645 of 1,993 precincts reporting - 32 percent Wesley Clark, 3 - 0 percent Howard Dean, 531 - 18 percent John Edwards, 990 - 33 percent Richard Gephardt, 324 - 11 percent John Kerry, 1,113 - 37 percent Dennis Kucinich, 24 - 1 percent Joe Lieberman, 0 - 0 percent Carol Moseley Braun, 0 - 0 percent Al Sharpton, 0 - 0 percent Uncommitted, 0 - 0 percent
__________________ The most valuable commodity I know of is information |
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