Giacomo in the derby

[moneyline]

My pick for the ky derby is Giacomo.He has been consistently close to the winners and hasnt run his best yet.Many of the favorites should bounce off of overused monster efforts when all they needed to do was win.In his prep races he has been gutsy,lost horseshoes and run wide in his races including a 1 length defeat to Declans Moon in his first graded event.He has been training very well most recently a 6f 1:11 4/5 bullet .His post position is perfect and the tremedous speed in this race with extra help from rabbit Spanish Chestnut should eliminate the speed and set this up for the closers.Jockey Mike Smith plans to be around 10th about 10 lengths off the pace and says his horse is fresh and expects a huge surge up to the front.The best part is the price as he is completely overlooked at 50-1 morning line.Also the SA derby where he was beaten 2 lengths by Buzzards Bay was run in very slow fractions making it difficult for a closer.The deep dirt of Churchill Downs should bring the speed back to the closers which should set it all up.Looking to make a huge score on this one.

[taildragger]

I agree. Like him boxed with Wilco for huge Exacta.

[moneyline]

I am looking at Giacomo boxed with Afleet Alex and my High Fly(who I like second most to Giacomo)

[Loman]

Some people whose opinion I respect, like this horse a lot. I just don't see it. good luck, if he hits you guys will be very flush.

[George D]

My daughter's name is Gia. If Gia wins and I don't have any money on that horse, I'll never hear the end of it from Mrs. Dago.

[moneyline]

Loman,

curious to hear the reasons your friends that you respect love Giacomo.

[Loman]

Has not run a bad race, seems to be on improve and they think he may be sitting on a big effort at big odds.

[moneyline]

thx,

just what i am feeling here too.he has also had some kind of trouble in his efforts whether it be losing a shoe,running wide or a wet track and his guts keep him there.Surprised to see that he is not even mentioned anywhere with any degree of interest.

[Loman]

Money, I just can't past the slow speed figs. Stranger things have happened, especially in the Derby.

[moneyline]

the beyers are consistently in the 90s and he hasnt run his best yet.the SA derby fraction were slow so it hurt him and his figure.the speed in ky should play into his and other closers hands and i believe he can get the distance.his father Holy Bull won at 1 1/4 in the Travers and he has european stamina influence from his dam

[Loman]

I think the pace and added distance will help him, just not sure enough. Don't seeing him making the jump to 110, which I think he will need to get it done.

[kris]

like your analysis and has the pedigree in holy bull, just do not like the jockey at long distances....GL moneyline!

[moneyline]

it should come down to a closer(baring the 30% chance of rain which would help the speed as did last yr in slop)and many of them are nice prices.I just think that Giacomo is not only the value but he has yet to run his best and had had reasons for defeat in his preps and still was there in all of them.

[George D]

I have Giacomo at 53 to 1 at Pinny cause I cannot make it to the simulcast tomorrow to bet it in person. I'm not spending the winnings yet.

[moneyline]

kris,

Mike Smith has 3 second places in the ky derby.hopefully that should help Giacomo's chances

[wolfman]

i'm on board, let's get him home

[moneyline]

wolf,

whats your angle on gia?

[Fatl]

The Chaos Theory? Really this horse is a fav to be bringing up the rear today.

[Loman]

Nice hit.