Columnist Jeff Haney: Shadow of scandal leaves mark on baseball betting

[clevfan]

March 30, 2005

Columnist Jeff Haney: Shadow of scandal leaves mark on baseball betting
LAS VEGAS SUN

At the height of baseball's power boom that ran from the late 1990s through 2002, the sport's leading home run hitters were sometimes derisively referred to as "cartoon characters."

The description was apt, considering the physiques of the bulked-up sluggers of the time, with their forearms like Popeye and their legs like an R. Crumb girl.

Home run numbers from those seasons pop off the page: Mark McGwire led the majors with 70 homers in 1998, then a record. He ripped 65 a year later. Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs in '98, 63 in '99 and a major league-best 50 in 2000.

Barry Bonds, now a central figure in the BALCO grand jury investigation, belted a record 73 homers in 2001.

It was a heady era, one that has since come under intense scrutiny marked by allegations of rampant use of steroids in baseball.

If Las Vegas odds carry any weight -- and they almost always do in sports, one way or another -- the era has unceremoniously ended.

For the 2005 season, which begins Sunday, the over/under on the number of home runs hit by the major league leader has been set at 46 1/2.

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has taken more bets on the "over" side than the "under," but the action has not been one-sided enough to move the number up to 47, assistant sports book manager Jeff Sherman said.

The last time the major league home run leader finished with fewer than 46 in a non-strike year was 1992, when Juan Gonzalez of the Texas Rangers led with 43.

"You have to take into account that the last few years were the steroid era in baseball," Sherman said.

For the 2004 season, the Hilton set the over/under on the major league-leading total at 49 1/2 home runs. "Under" bettors cashed their tickets, as Adrian Beltre led the majors with 48 homers.

Oddsmakers adjusted the number further downward this year, recognizing that perhaps the era of big quadriceps is over.

"There's going to be more and more crackdowns (on steroids) and more of a public eye on it," Sherman said.

Over/unders on the number of home runs hit by various individual players also came out on the low side, according to Hilton odds.

For instance, Adam Dunn of the Cincinnati Reds hit 46 home runs in 2004, yet he has a 38 1/2 attached to him for 2005.

Jim Thome of the Philadelphia Phillies, who hit 49, 52 and 47 homers from 2001 to 2003, has an over/under of 38 1/2for 2005.

The over/under on Sosa, now with the Baltimore Orioles, has been set at 34 1/2. Sosa has amassed more than 60 home runs in a season three times but had only 35 last year.

The Hilton had set an over/under of 38 1/2 home runs on Bonds for 2005, but took that bet off the board when it was revealed Bonds could miss half the season with an ailing knee. Bonds, who recently told reporters he's "tired ... just tired," suggested he might even sit out the entire year.

"We had taken some money on the 'over,' but our stipulation is that the player only has to play one game (for the bettor) to have action, so we had to take it down," Sherman said.

The Plaza downtown had a similar proposition on Bonds homers. Sports book director Lou D'Amico set his number at 40 1/2 home runs with a minimum of 120 games played for action. That prop also came off the board after the questions about Bonds' health surfaced.

"There was a lot of talk about how many homers he'd hit, then suddenly it was all about his surgery, steroids, and that was that," D'Amico said.

Bettors at the Plaza have turned their interest to a series of props involving Randy Johnson, D'Amico said, including one that matches Johnson against Pedro Martinez. Johnson, now with the New York Yankees, is a fairly heavy favorite to record more wins than Martinez, now with the New York Mets, in 2005. (Bettors must lay 2 wins and a vigorish of minus-150 -- that is, wagering $1.50 for each $1 they're trying to win -- with Johnson.)

Other props on Johnson ask bettors to play the over/under on his total wins (19 1/2), strikeouts (254 1/2) and complete games (2 1/2).

"It's been mostly all Randy Johnson," D'Amico said. "He's gotten most of the attention besides the steroid talk."

Another set of props at the Plaza places teams in head-to-head matchups to win the season series. In a marquee pairing, the Yankees are a minus-155 favorite to get the better of the world champion Boston Red Sox.

"Enough is enough with all that (steroid) stuff," D'Amico said. "Let's play ball."

The most popular form of preseason baseball wagering at the Hilton involves betting the over/unders on the number of season wins by individual teams, Sherman said.

Among the teams that have attracted the most money from bettors at the Hilton:


The Arizona Diamondbacks to go "under." The number opened at 76 1/2 wins at the Hilton and has been bet down to 74.

The Yankees to go "under." The Yanks opened at 103 1/2 and have been bet down to 101 1/2.

The Los Angeles Dodgers to go "over." The Dodgers opened at 82 1/2 wins and have been bet up to 83 1/2.

The Chicago Cubs at 87 wins. The Cubbies have commanded strong two-way betting action, Sherman said.
A good selection of baseball propositions can also be found at the Palms, the Imperial Palace and Caesars Palace.

While the steroids mess continues to linger, Sherman said, it doesn't figure to temper gamblers' enthusiasm for baseball.

"Especially in the last week, we've noticed the baseball action really heating up," Sherman said.

Final Four

This late in the NCAA basketball tournament, the betting lines on the games are generally pretty tight, making it tough going for bettors trying to gain an advantage.

But Las Vegas sports handicapper "Fairway" Jay Ginsbach says he'll make a case for North Carolina minus 5 points against Michigan State on Saturday.

Defense and rebounding will be the keys to the game, Ginsbach said.

"North Carolina's defense has been underrated throughout the season," said Ginsbach, online at fairwayjay.com. "I think they're going to win the game, move on and win the whole thing."

The Tar Heels, a No. 1 seed, are holding opponents to an average of 40.4 percent shooting from the floor, while opponents of the Spartans, a No. 5 seed, are shooting 42.6 percent.

One of Michigan State's major strengths in the regular season was its rebounding. Overall, the Spartans are outrebounding their opponents by about 12 to 10 offensively and about 24 to 19 defensively.

That solid edge has evaporated in the tournament, Ginsbach pointed out. In its four tournament games, Michigan State holds an edge in total rebounds of just 1.5 per game against its opponents, even though it has been covering the point spread.

"North Carolina's talent level will be too much for Michigan State," Ginsbach said. "I don't mind laying the number in that game."

In Saturday's other semifinal, Illinois is favored by 3 points against Louisville. Ginsbach said he likes the Illini to advance to Monday's championship game but figures the point spread is just about right.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------