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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-22-2004, 02:52 PM
DelReyJ DelReyJ is offline
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Default Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

I know T.O. is out (obviously) and the other receivers are going to have to step up their game. Defense is a little nicked up, but has been playing rock solid since the Pitt game. St. Louis has Chris Chandler at QB. What am I missing here ?
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Old 12-22-2004, 02:58 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

The game is meaningless to them and means a lot to the Rams.

A lot like Atl-N.O.

And probably a lot like Pitt at Buff next week.
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Old 12-22-2004, 03:01 PM
Rookies Rookies is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

And probably a lot like Pitt at Buff next week.

BANKING ON IT ! [img]i/expressions/beer.gif[/img] GO BILZ !
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Old 12-22-2004, 03:22 PM
Donahue Donahue is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

"The game is meaningless to them and means a lot to the Rams".....

This type of phrase ALWAYS will get you in trouble.....To 'cap on the basis of needing to win, is a fallacy. First, you almost always give up value...see N.O. and Rams, and, if a team was solid, they would not be in a position to have to win....

I make money year after year fading the teams that "HAVE TO WIN"...

Bobby D.
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Old 12-22-2004, 04:35 PM
grapefruit grapefruit is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

ANOTHER ANGLE YOU COULD LOOK AT IS PHILLY WANTS TO WIN TO PROVE TO THEMSELVES AND EVERYONE ELSE THAT THEY CAN WIN WITHOUT T.O.

IF THEY LOSE IT WILL BE A BIG SHOT TO THEIR CONFIDENCE, AND THEIR ABILITY TO WIN THE SB WITHOUT OWENS
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Old 12-22-2004, 05:11 PM
skyweasel skyweasel is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

My opinion, lots of value in Philly + points against any NFC team. Lots of rumors that Rams have quit on Martz. Meantime, Reid should know that if his team stumbles into the playoffs with a couple of losses it will kill what little momentum they have left after Owens went down. He should have them pumped for this game and ready to prove they are the team to beat. Week 17 he can rest guys, let them lose and shrug it off, etc. Not this week. I'm taking Philly moneyline. GL all!
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Old 12-22-2004, 05:37 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

<<<"The game is meaningless to them and means a lot to the Rams".....>>>


Bobby D,

He asked why the line was Stl -3. That is the answer. That doesn't mean there is or isn't value in Philly, but even without TO, if the Eagles needed to win, they would be favored in the game.
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Old 12-22-2004, 06:12 PM
brett brett is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

There is alot $$$ to be made in the NFL in the last couple of weeks of the year if you are on top of the scenarios. Donahue can say that you can make alot of money betting against teams that need to win, but personally, I would rather take my chances with the Rams and Saints of the league as long as I get them @ a good #. I remember some of my easiest wins being in late December when the openers that come out do not factor in that the top seeded team may be resting players and playing with very little incentive. An example is last years Week 17 tilt with Denver traveling to Green Bay. Denver was already in the playoffs and could not improve their plight. Green Bay, on the other hand had to win. Line opened 6.5. I grabbed all I could. Line closed at 10 and 10.5. Game was basically a walk thru with the Packers winning by a score of around 31-3 (can't remember exactly, but it was a breather). The key was knowing the psyche of the head coach who's team had nothing to gain by winning. Shannahan had one goal and that goal was advancing as far as he could in the playoffs. He was not about to risk injury to any key performers. On the other hand, I have seen Bill Cowher get his team up for meaningless games and cover spreads that you would not expect him to cover. In summary, I think this is similar to betting unders in bad weather situations. You shouldn't blindly be on an under side because of bad weather, but it is definitely the side you should give a stronger look to. The same goes for teams that have alot more to gain by winning than their opponents.
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Old 12-22-2004, 06:26 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Good Post Brett.

It is one thing to understand why and when teams have nothing to play for, but equally important to know how each Coach will handle the situation. Totally agree with Cowher. If the Steelers win this week, I'm sure he'll give some of his regulars a break, especially the ones that are banged up, but I guarantee the guys on the field will be playing their balls off and he'll be motivating them as much as he does for any other game.
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Old 12-22-2004, 06:54 PM
Donahue Donahue is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Brett....I guess you lost a ton on New England vs. Buffalo the last week of the regular season when Bellichek rested many players and yet they beat Buffalo 31-0....Or how often I heard during that week wha ta great play Cincy was over Cleveland, since Cincy only had to win to make the playoffs...whoops 22-14 Cleveland....I disagree that it is the side to start off onk, and I think the weather variable is not a good co-example....

Picksix...you are correct, I stand corrected, that that is the reason the line is shaded that way...my point being of course, that too much is often built in...
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Old 12-22-2004, 07:13 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Donahue,

I think you have to look at each situation on it's own. Like last years Buff/NE game. NE had a long winning streak going and NE also loves to dominate Bledsoe. If I remember correctly they also beat them 31-0 the first time they played them last year. Pretty much dominated him again this year too.

As far as the Cle/Cin game....That is a totally different animal. You are talking about a team that HAS to win vs a team that wants to knock them off....Especially with the Cinci/Clev rivalry. Way different then a team that has to win vs a team that really doesn't need to win and also has bigger plans down the road.
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Old 12-22-2004, 07:44 PM
count zero count zero is offline
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Default RE: Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Must-win favorites in the last two weeks of the season have been a sub-50% play over the last 20 years or so. Often this is because these teams are not actually in a must-win situation, but it's also because many coaches play extremely conservatively in this spot. Obviously you need to judge each game on its own merits, but it's best to look first at the dog that has no pressure on it and that often gives a stronger-than-expected performance in a rare outing in the spotlight.
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Old 12-22-2004, 07:54 PM
superhero named Tony superhero named Tony is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

crazy line. invest four, get back nine. unreal
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Old 12-22-2004, 08:37 PM
hockeystl hockeystl is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

All hell is breaking loose here in STL.

The team quit on sMartz last Sunday vs. Ari-freaking-zona. I would be shocked if sMartz puts Chandler back under center. It'll be Jamie Martin or Bulger (still questionable). The Rams O line is so pathetic, even if PHI rests their first stringers, they'll still be able to pressure the QB. Martz is so stubborn, he'll coach his way, logic be damned (see : Rams 12 rushes vs. ARZ and their 30th ranked run defense).

Why PHIL is catching 3 is beyond me. I don't get it.

Either way, this line is going to move off of 3 and there will be a middle opportunity.
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Old 12-22-2004, 08:45 PM
brett brett is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

donahue, didn't play the Buffalo- New England game last year or the Browns-Bengals clash, they didn't fit into the criteria I was talking about anyhow. I was talking about teams that are already in the playoffs playing against teams that need to win to get in. Teams that are out of the playoffs like the Browns last year still had plenty of motivation to knock off their interstate rival, doesn't even simulate my example in the slightest. Playing teams like the Eagles, Falcons and others that will crop up in week 17 that are simply going thru the motions is idiotic IMO. But keep doing it if you are having success with it
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Old 12-22-2004, 09:06 PM
DelReyJ DelReyJ is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Thanks for all of the great replies. The only side you can look at if your taking one is St. Louis or pass. I'm wondering how Ken White got in touch with Andy Reid to find out how long the starters are playing and for how long.. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-confused.gif[/img]
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Old 12-22-2004, 09:41 PM
hockeystl hockeystl is offline
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Default RE:Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

John Hadley just reported.....

"Martz must improve his ability to convince the masses he has their back. When players that have strong individual personalities that differ from his mindset, are alienated, problems fester to the point of explosion. Three sources at Rams Park relayed information relating to a meeting that took place between Martz and Kyle Turley last week that in fact exploded with phuck bombs, loud exchanges and later a phone call to NFL security by Martz claiming that Turley had threatened him.

There are a handful of players on this team that will go to the wall for Martz however those numbers are dwindling because of roster changeover with the remaining outcasts knowing that their next misstep will lead to disciplinary actions or dismissal while the "chosen few" are preordained with forgiveness.

A top-notch wide receiver that can break open games is a sweet commodity however when the backups on the defensive side of the ball are sprinting to practice cognizant of time only to see that receiver lounging in the whirlpool and walking out to practice tardy... players take note.

Frankly, based on my sources, Adam Archuleta should've been shutdown long ago. I'm told he has difficulty bending over at his house and is virtually incapable of administrating the hits, which strikes fear in receivers let alone making a simple tackle. Archuleta still hasn't received a straight answer regarding the significance of his back injury and is told further tests will be taken at the end of the season. Archuleta isn't going to walk away from a given task, he needs to be saved. Somebody needs to say enough is enough... get them next season. There are younger players on this team seriously concerned that the coaching staff and management of this team lacks appreciation for the injured aside from the "chosen few" which now has the melding process of the outcasts moving at warp speed.

I know for an absolute fact that many players want to reach out to their head coach however are too concerned about interpretation to do so for fear of repercussion. That's a shame, however Martz has nobody to blame but himself because of his refusal to offer a group hug that is as meaningful for the sixth defensive back as it is for his top two receivers.

The problems at Rams Park run deep. The friction is greater than ever. Martz and Jay Zygmunt are at odds; Charley Armey is being locked out of personnel moves. Players are bickering with each other.

The problems run the gamut from Marshall Faulk's dealings with Steven Jackson and some resentment in Faulk playing a large role in upper management giving in to releasing Kurt Warner... to position coaches on the run in fear they will be sacrificed at season's end, to second-tier players telling their agents... get me out of here.






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Old 12-23-2004, 01:54 AM
TheGuesser TheGuesser is offline
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Default RE: Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

Betting aganst "need" teams is a moneymaker, as CZ said, but this situation is different due to the Eagles "locked in" situation, similar to Atlanta's locked in situation. I think need vs out of it teams where the out of it team is at home is the real money maker.
This week we have Tenn and the 49ers fitting that criteria. Let's see how they do. The only other Need vs out of it situation is the Texans vs Jax.
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Old 12-23-2004, 02:18 AM
BigSlick BigSlick is offline
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Default RE: Why are the Eagles 3 point underdogs Monday night ??

We all know Las Vegas oddsmakers goal is to get a 50/50 split on the action. Having said that, dont you think the money would have been split evenly if the Eagles were favoured by 3 instead of the Rams.
That's the part I cant figure out. It almost seems like the books are daring us to take Philly.
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