ARTICLE: Record vs. spread makes Pats favorite with betting public

[clevfan]

Monday, November 22, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Record vs. spread makes Pats favorite with betting public


New England 11-4-1 against number in last 16

By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL


In betting circles, playing favorites in the NFL is generally regarded as a square's approach. But even the wise guys must admit that betting against quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots has not been smart money.

The Patriots have been favorites in 15 of their last 16 games, and during that stretch they are 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread.

New England is in that role again tonight, laying 3 points on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. The money is predictably coming in on the Patriots, prompting Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci to bump the line to 3 1/2.

"You hate to buck a trend, and when you have a team that keeps winning, it's hard to go against them," Scucci said.

As with most Monday night games, the public is again squarely behind the favorite, despite the Chiefs' 31-9-2 record against the spread as home underdogs.

Another Monday trend is betting the game to go over the total, but handicapper Soren Petro is going against that tonight by recommending a play under 53.

Petro (lasvegashotpicks .com) said he expects the two running backs, Kansas City's Derrick Blaylock and New England's Corey Dillon, to be featured in the game plans.

Petro is 9-1 this season on his Monday side plays. He said the Chiefs suspect the only way they can win is to run the ball and open up the field for quarterback Trent Green, who directs the league's No. 1 offense at 422 yards per game.

Kansas City will be missing injured running back Priest Holmes. Blaylock ran for 186 yards and Green passed for 311 last week, but that was against a New Orleans defense ranking last in the league.

"The offenses have people thinking 'over' in this one," said Petro, noting the last three Monday games turned into shootouts that went over the total. "I think this number is a reaction to all the Monday night 'overs' and a reaction to the reputation of the Chiefs.

"I think the Chiefs' offense is overrated, and I don't think they are going to be that successful running the ball. I don't see how they can stop New England's running game, which keeps the clock going."

If the Patriots cover tonight, it will cap a losing NFL weekend for Las Vegas books. Buffalo and the New York Jets closed as favorites Sunday, meaning favored teams covered in 11 of 14 afternoon games, and Green Bay pushed against the spread in the night game at Houston.

If the Packers and Patriots both covered, Scucci said the result would be "probably the worst I've seen in 15 years" for the books.

"It was the worst day I've seen in a long time," Scucci said. "All the popular favorites that people have been betting every week -- the Colts, Eagles, Steelers, Broncos and Chargers -- were winning.

"We're not seeing the home-field advantage kick in the way it's supposed to in the NFL."

[clevfan]

Who else is on the Pats?

[nfleqbc]

/me raises hand...

[joint chiefs of staff]

I am.
KC is too inconsistent.
NE will role.
KC only put up 20 against NO last week.
KC's high powered offense is falling off.