Computers Are Siding With the Sooners

[clevfan]

November 16, 2004
Computers Are Siding With the Sooners
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press

Computers prefer Oklahoma over Auburn - and Southern California.

The Sooners held onto second place in the Bowl Championship Series standing yesterday, staying ahead of third-place Auburn because of a stronger computer ranking.

U.S.C. is still first in the standing with a grade of .9808. Oklahoma is at .9621 and Auburn at .9350. Last week, the Sooners led the Tigers by .0567.

The Trojans, the Sooners and the Tigers are 10-0. Each team has two games left, and a loss by any of them would provide a simple solution to what is shaping up to be another B.C.S. mess. The top two teams in the final B.C.S. standing will play in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 4 for the national title.

Since the inception of the B.C.S. in 1998, there have never been three undefeated teams after the regular season in the six B.C.S. conferences - Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Atlantic Coast Conference, Pac-10 and Southeastern Conference.

The Tigers made up ground on the Sooners in the polls on Sunday, tying Oklahoma for second in the Associated Press top 25 and getting within 2 points of No. 2 in the coaches poll.

With the voters virtually split on the Sooners and the Tigers, the computers are breaking the tie, favoring the Sooners' quality road victories and strength of schedule.

"How do they come up with strength of schedule?" Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville said. "Most of the teams haven't played any of the teams that we've played."

The polls each count for a third of a B.C.S. grade. A compilation of six computer rankings makes up the other third, and according to them, Oklahoma is the best team in the country.

The Sooners lead in five of the computer rankings and are second in the other. A team's highest and lowest computer scores are tossed out.

U.S.C. is second in the computer compilation and Auburn is third.

The B.C.S. computers were responsible for putting Oklahoma in the national title game last season after the Sooners lost the Big 12 title game and dropped to No. 3 in the polls.

A similar situation is developing.

With no defeats by the top three and if the Tigers cannot pull far away from Oklahoma in the polls, the computers will probably send an unbeaten Sooners team to the Orange Bowl to face an unbeaten Southern Cal, according to the B.C.S. analyst Jerry Palm.

Palm said that computer rankings did not usually fluctuate much late in the season and that Oklahoma's strength of schedule advantage over Auburn would probably not change. The Tigers play at Alabama on Saturday and in the SEC title game on Dec. 4, most likely against Tennessee. The Sooners face Baylor on Saturday and play in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 4 against an opponent to be determined.

Palm said it was "not realistic'' for Auburn to pass Oklahoma in the computer rankings. "Pulling even is optimistic," he said.

With the way it stands now, Palm said, Auburn will have to be ahead in each poll by about 60 points to make up Oklahoma's advantage in the computers.

[kris]

someone will lose to help out the BCS standings. They are hoping anyways, i just dont think that if Auburn and OU win out that Auburn will have enough to pass OU.

[The Actuary]

OUt of 90 sets of rankings most of which are computers.

1.USC mean ranking 1.5
2.OU MR=1.94
3. Auburn MR=3.75
4. Cal MR=4.63
5. Tex Mr=5.48
6. Utan Mr=5.63