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-   -   THE DAILY PICKS THREAD (AKA: Uconn 1st Half Auto Fade) (http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/216590-daily-picks-thread-aka-uconn-1st-half-auto-fade.html)

analyzer 01-11-2012 10:08 PM

THE DAILY PICKS THREAD (AKA: Uconn 1st Half Auto Fade)
 
Well, it's about that time a year again. 4 years running, the Huskies have given us a nice fade opportunity in Jan/Feb. Last year it was 7 or 8 in a row, followed by their amazing NCAA tournament run. I don't know how a team fails to cover 7 1st halves in a row, and then runs off 11 straight wins. But Uconn does that just about every year.

Uconn has now missed the cover in their last 3 1st halves.

@ Seton Hall 22-35
@ Rutgers 30-28
West Virginia 28-33

Uconn plays at ND on Saturday. I'd recommend a 1st half play on the Irish. Maybe we can get a few wins out of this. I can see them tanking quite a few games coming up.

analyzer 01-14-2012 12:54 PM

:46.3 Connecticut Huskies CONN

DeAndre Daniels misses a 22-foot three-pointer

:46.3 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Tyler Olander offensive rebound

:16.8 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Personal foul on Andre Drummond

:16.8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND

Eric Atkins misses a free throw

:16.8 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Tyler Olander defensive rebound

:04.5 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Shabazz Napier misses a 9-foot jumper

:04.5 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Andre Drummond offensive rebound

:01.6 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Andre Drummond misses a layup

:01.6 Connecticut Huskies CONN

Andre Drummond misses a layup

Uconn managed to miss ALL 7 3point attempts in the first half, and this litany of put backs to give ND the 2 point 1st half cover 25-24. What a coincidence.

=================

Do you guys remember the run we went on in 09 I believe (might have been spring of '10), fading Texas and Uconn in the 1st half? 23-2 if memory serves correctly.

I'm going to throw this out there for digestion.

Texas last 6 opponents from major conferences:

A/M 26-24, 35-27
Okie St 21-21, 37-28
@ISU 34-44, 37-33
@UNC 23-39, 40-43
Temple 31-34, 46-31
UCLA 28-34, 41-25

I would hazzard a guess they didn't cover the 1st half against any of those. They are at Missouri in an hour. IF you like the Tigers first half you have to lay 5 1/2. Normally that number would scare me off, but I think the horns find a way to lose the 1st half by more than that.

stevo 01-14-2012 01:34 PM

Bazinga!

analyzer 01-14-2012 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevo (Post 1777966)
Bazinga!

Bazinga? LOL.

Uconn wins the 2nd half 43-28, but manages to lose the first half for us. How nice.

analyzer 01-14-2012 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyzer (Post 1777957)
I'm going to throw this out there for digestion.

Texas last 6 opponents from major conferences:

A/M 26-24, 35-27
Okie St 21-21, 37-28
@ISU 34-44, 37-33
@UNC 23-39, 40-43
Temple 31-34, 46-31
UCLA 28-34, 41-25

I would hazzard a guess they didn't cover the 1st half against any of those. They are at Missouri in an hour. IF you like the Tigers first half you have to lay 5 1/2. Normally that number would scare me off, but I think the horns find a way to lose the 1st half by more than that.

Mizzou wins first half 43-28. The Texas 1st half auto fade continues...

I don't think Texas could've covered if they wanted to, shaving or not, Mizzou hit 7 of their first 8, from 3 point land.

analyzer 01-16-2012 08:12 PM

It's fun to go back and look at just how long the "uconn 1st half auto fade" has been effective. Here's there 2006 2nd half of the season. Notice how few losses they have, yet so many close or losing half time scores. Many of the 2 or 3 point leads at half, would not have covered the spread. Pay particular attention to the stretch Jan 28-Feb 23rd, they didn't cover the 1st half in any of those, yet outscored their opponent in the 2nd half, in all but one case....

Fri, Dec 28 at UCF W 85-82 1st h 43-41, 2nd h 42-41
Thu, Jan 3 at Seton Hall W 98-86 47-48, 51-38
Sat, Jan 5 at Notre Dame L 67-73 32-47, 35-26
Tue, Jan 8 St. John's W 81-65 45-32, 36-33
Sat, Jan 12 at (7) Georgetown L 69-72 38-42, 31-30
Thu, Jan 17 Providence L 65-77 34-32, 31-45
Sun, Jan 20 (13) Marquette W 89-73 39-24, 50-49
Wed, Jan 23 at Cincinnati W 84-83 58-41, 46-42
Sat, Jan 26 at (7) Indiana W 68-63 29-24, 39-39
Mon, Jan 28 Louisville W 69-67 30-30, 39-37
Sat, Feb 2 (18) Pittsburgh W 60-53 22-22, 38-31
Wed, Feb 6 at Syracuse W 63-61 31-34, 32-27
Sat, Feb 9 Georgia Tech W 80-68 31-35, 49-33
Wed, Feb 13 (20) Notre Dame W 84-78 39-41, 45-37
Sat, Feb 16 at South Florida W 74-73 27-26, 38-39, 9-8
Tue, Feb 19 DePaul W 65-60 29-28, 36-32
Sat, Feb 23 at Villanova L 65-67 27-33, 38-34
Tue, Feb 26 at Rutgers W 79-61
Sat, Mar 1 West Virginia W 79-71
Thu, Mar 6 at Providence L 76-85
Sun, Mar 9 Cincinnati W 96-51

more coming....

analyzer 01-16-2012 08:35 PM

2008, Uconn top 3 team in the country most of the season. Only 3 losses in the regular season:

Outscore Depaul by 22, but only 6 in the 1st half. Outscore Providence by 33, but only 4 in the 1st half. Beat Sjohns by 12, but 1 in the 1st half. Beat Mich at home by 8, but losing at half. Beat cuse by 14, but lead by 3 at half. Do they just make great adjustments at half time, or do the boys quit tanking for the campus bookie after the break? Does he get them stuck on bowl games and NFL playoff games, and have them make it up for him in the 1st half of b-ball games in Jan/Feb? Coincidence?

Tue, Jan 6 at (25) West Virginia W 61-55 29-29, 32-26
Sat, Jan 10 at Cincinnati W 81-72 38-34, 43-38
Thu, Jan 15 at St. John's W 67-55 31-30, 36-25
Sun, Jan 18 Seton Hall W 76-61 42-26, 34-35
Wed, Jan 21 (20) Villanova W 89-83 48-48, 41-35
Sat, Jan 24 at (19) Notre Dame W 69-61 30-29, 39-32
Wed, Jan 28 at DePaul W 71-49 41-35, 30-14
Sat, Jan 31 Providence W 94-61 38-34, 56-27
Mon, Feb 2 at (7) Louisville W 68-51 38-26, 30-25
Sat, Feb 7 Michigan W 69-61 33-34, 36-27
Wed, Feb 11 (23) Syracuse W 63-49 30-27, 33-22
Sat, Feb 14 at Seton Hall W 62-54 33-23, 29-31
Mon, Feb 16 (4) Pittsburgh L 68-76 36-33, 40-35
Sat, Feb 21 South Florida W 64-50
Wed, Feb 25 at (8) MarquetteW 93-82
Sat, Feb 28 Notre Dame W 72-65
Sat, Mar 7 at (3) Pittsburgh L 60-70

The next year 2009 was a banner year for us. I clued a few guys in at MW, and we went 23-2 combined between Uconn and Texas in the 1st half fade, and one of those we got wrong, was because THEY PLAYED EACH OTHER, and someone had to lead at half time (Tex).

analyzer 01-16-2012 09:01 PM

You want some Texas?

This was 2009, the horns won their first 17 ball games. Coincidentally, their football team won all their regular season games too. But then they struggled against Neb, and N-Dam-A-Kan-SOOOOOO and barely won 13-12. But they weren't close to covering. Then they got their ass kicked by alabama in the BCS title game. funny, beginning Jan 5th, the basketball team stops covering the 1st half of ball games for about a month and half... except for the 1 colorado game, and the Uconn game, where, well, Uconn was trying to lose the 1st half too....

@Ark 44-48, 48-37
Col 57-42, 46-44
@ISU 42-44, 48-39
A/M 27-36, 33-24
@KSU 26-36, 36-35
Uconn DNA
TT 47-50, 48-33
Baylor 29-38, 35-26
@OSU, 32-36, 40-24
OU 30-48, 41-32
KU 24-34, 44-46


Come ON, look at those 1h, 2h scores... coincidence??? 1_. 1_. No way!!!

They are doing it again boys, Texas has not covered the first half, against 7 straight major conference opponents. I'm not counting the Tex Arlingtons, and co-rec bowling leagues.

Uconn has failed to cover 4 strt 1st halves, Texas 7. It's like your own personal ATM, almost every damn year. Uconn, has been every year, Texas, not so much. Maybe it depends on the college football bowl games. The Dallas cowboys have been getting beat like a drum lately??? Did the basketball players get stuck to the bookie again?

analyzer 01-16-2012 09:08 PM

Texas this year now:

@Ucla 28-24, 41-25
Temple 31-34, 46-31
@UNC 23-39, 40-43
@ISU 34-44, 37-33
OSU 21-21, 37-28
A/M 26-24, 35-27
@MIzz 30-43, 43-41

Look at all familiar???

analyzer 01-16-2012 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyzer (Post 1778284)
Texas this year now:

@Ucla 28-24, 41-25
Temple 31-34, 46-31
@UNC 23-39, 40-43
@ISU 34-44, 37-33
OSU 21-21, 37-28
A/M 26-24, 35-27
@MIzz 30-43, 43-41

Look at all familiar???

excuse me, they lost the 1st half to Ucla 28-34.

analyzer 01-16-2012 10:01 PM

LOL, Houston, we have a problem....

Uconn's wed night opponent...

Cinci vs Major opponents this year:

@Ga 21-30, 36-21
@Xavier 25-34, 38-42
OU 19-24, 37-31
@Pitt 31-31, 35-32
ND 31-21, 40-34
SJ 25-22, 30-35
@Ggtwn 32-34, 36-30
VillNva 40-45, 42-33

Seems the bearcats have read a similar book.

That changes things somewhat. If both teams are going to suck in the 1st half wed night, a 1st half UNDER play might be the way to go for this one, and wait until the next one to run the fade some more.

As you can see, there are plenty of prime opportunities to fade the huskies in the first half coming up, this one might be a time to just play the under 1st half, and root for ugliness.

Wed, Jan 18 Cincinnati 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Jan 21 at Tennessee 4:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sun, Jan 29 Notre Dame 12:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Wed, Feb 1 at (10) Georgetown 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Feb 4 Seton Hall 12:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Mon, Feb 6 at (23) Louisville 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Feb 11 at (1) Syracuse 1:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Wed, Feb 15 DePaul 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Feb 18 (21) Marquette 12:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Mon, Feb 20 at Villanova 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Feb 25 (1) Syracuse 9:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Tue, Feb 28 at Providence 7:00 pm Buy Tickets -- --
Sat, Mar 3 Pittsburgh 12:00 pm Buy Tickets --

analyzer 01-16-2012 10:10 PM

I think I'll hope for a 1st half number around 63, and play the under.

analyzer 01-18-2012 08:29 AM

I have to work until around 5 cst today, and i'll post after that, as I don't have the half time numbers yet, but for the game I'm seeing Uconn -7, and as expected 129 for a game total. As I mentioned, I'd temper your enthusiasm for the Uconn 1st half auto fade today, and keep it light, if at all, as Cinci has a similar fade pattern in the first half as well (see above). I'd consider playing the 1st half under in this one when the number comes up, it should be in the low 60's, and I expect an ugly mid 50's first half out of these two. 2nd half should be be more fireworks and you might be able to get a little over action in the 2nd half, if they throw a mid to high 60's number out there at the half. Both teams play better in 2nd half action. Personally, I would just play a little on the 1st half under, and go heavier on the Texas Auto Fade today, and leave the sides alone in the uconn/cinci game.

Kstate is -5 1/2 right now, which means some where around -3 for a 1st half number, and that should be just fine. Take Kstate, and lay the 3 in the first half. Again, Texas hasn't covered the first half in 7 straight games, vs major conference opponents.

stevo 01-18-2012 08:50 PM

Uconn goes down again FHB_ch

Caitlyn Cwissy 01-18-2012 08:55 PM

I think these assholes are tanking. Statistically improbable to play this bad consecutively only in the first half. Too bad only analyzer apparently is pointing it out and not any media person.

Caitlyn Cwissy 01-18-2012 09:17 PM

Nice little scam these kids got going. Throw first halfs. Nobody remembers when you win game.

analyzer 01-18-2012 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cwissy (Post 1778371)
Nice little scam these kids got going. Throw first halfs. Nobody remembers when you win game.

This was from the recap of their WV game, which they won 64-57, but lost the first half 28-33...

Connecticut turned the ball over nine times in the first half and had no offensive rebounds, while the Mountaineers had eight offensive boards and 15 points off those UConn turnovers in building a 33-28 halftime lead.

Stats like those tell a story. Note that Uconn WON the 2nd half 36-24.

Caitlyn Cwissy 01-18-2012 10:43 PM

You should start a Big Ten thread also. How many dogs covering (straight up)? Every single top team has lo$t to a bottom feeder or gotten upset @ home.

analyzer 01-18-2012 10:49 PM

Do you really want the media to know cwissy? Or do you just want to count on it year after year and SILENTLY cash a check.

@Seton Hall 22-35, 41-40
@Rutgers 30-28, 30-39 Uconn was a 6 pt game fav, so rutgers prbly covered 1h
WV 28-33, 36-24
@ND 24-25, 43-28
Cinci 33-42, 34-28

Well, the 1st half under did not come in. I figured one team trying to lose, and one team who just sucks in the 1st half, should have been a recipe for the under in the 1h, did not come to fruition. I guess I didn't count on easy baskets, and turnovers etc to the opposition. sorry.

i guess there is a reason I called this the "Auto" fade. You close your eyes, lay any number, and be confident Uconn will figure out how to cash it.

5 straight fades... and counting.


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