MajorWager Forums

MajorWager Forums (http://www.majorwager.com/forums/)
-   Mess Hall (http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/)
-   -   THE DAILY PICKS THREAD (AKA: Uconn 1st Half Auto Fade) (http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/216590-daily-picks-thread-aka-uconn-1st-half-auto-fade.html)

analyzer 02-01-2012 07:25 PM

Miss Fest.

Neither team has made a shot for 4 minutes. The half will probably end 13-9. LOL.

rm0874 02-01-2012 07:53 PM

winner!

rm0874 02-01-2012 07:57 PM

after the kyle williams fuck up, I was sent into a 2-14 tail spin.... the last week or so 10-2..... have providence -1.5 pending.... lets see if i just jinxed myself.

analyzer 02-01-2012 07:59 PM

21-31. Gtown covers. Uconn fades. If not for a 1/2 point cover vs Cinci, the 1h fade would be at 8 in a row. 7/8 still decent/pathetic depending on your point of view.

Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb combined for 1-17 shooting. Lamb 1-8 from 3, and the whole team was 1-13 from long range. If you throw out Andre Drummond's 5-9, the rest of the team shot 3-27. This team won the national championship last year. You can't make it up.

If they make another run in the Big East tournament, it'll be all the confirmation you need. But really, do we need more confirmation?

Caitlyn Cwissy 02-01-2012 07:59 PM

Preposterous.

stevo 02-01-2012 08:00 PM

d_ff

analyzer 02-01-2012 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rm0874 (Post 1779093)
after the kyle williams fuck up, I was sent into a 2-14 tail spin.... the last week or so 10-2..... have providence -1.5 pending.... lets see if i just jinxed myself.

RM, you have had some rough runs on this board. I am rooting for you.

analyzer 02-01-2012 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyzer (Post 1779094)
21-31. Gtown covers. Uconn fades. If not for a 1/2 point cover vs Cinci, the 1h fade would be at 8 in a row. 7/8 still decent/pathetic depending on your point of view.

Excuse me, Uconn covered by 1/2 a pt 1h, @ Tenn, not cinci.

The Uconn 1H Fade now looks like this... (ATS)

@Seton Hall 22-35, 41-40
@Rutgers 30-28, 30-39
WV 28-33, 36-24
@ND 24-25, 43-28
Cinci 33-42, 34-28
@Tenn 27-25, 30-35
ND 24-21, 24-29
@GTwn 21-31

analyzer 02-04-2012 03:19 AM

Well, I see Nino Browns "Tennessee under" is sitting around 118. That's the lowest total I've seen yet for Tenn during this run (9 straight unders, as Nino has so generously pointed out). the totals were starting around 145 early on, and have steadily dropped as Vegas plays "we know, you know", and keeps looking for a number that will actually go over. Ga plays to the under often enough, and UT has been under 118 most games. I can see taking another stab at Nino's little run here...

Tenn Under 118.

Uconn is playing a softer team at home this week in Seton Hall. They have the game line at 7 1/2, so if I'm not mistaken SH should be getting 3 or 4 points in the first half. Despite 5 consecutive losses, the Pirates have covered 3 of those 5 in the 1h, so between that, and the strong possibility Uconn is still playing with a bic razor, this is still a decent play. For those of you reluctant to play this fade, you may want to pass, and wait for Uconns upcoming road games against Louisville and Syracuse, where they might not cover the 1h if they try. For now, until I see the real 1h line, we'll call it...

SH 1H +4.

@Ucla 28-34, 41-25
Temple 31-34, 46-31
@UNC 23-39, 40-43
@ISU 34-44, 37-33
OSU 21-21, 37-28
A/M 26-24, 35-27
@MIzz 30-43, 43-41
@Kstate 42-43, 38-41
Kansas 27-39, 39-30
ISU 28-22, 34-33
@baylor 29-38, 42-38
Mizz 22-27, 44-40

19-5 ATS. All you had to do was fade Texas 1h, and bet them 2nd half against major conference opponents. And I'm not 100% certain they didn't cover the 2nd half of kstate, or UNC. So that number might be closer to 22-3. Not to mention they had to overcome a 36-21 deficit to Kstate to cover that 1h by 1 point.

Either way, looking at so many games where they outscored their opponents straight up in the 2nd half, makes me believe this long horn team has the talent to beat anyone. Why they start so slowly is a mystery. Texas Tech is the bitch of the conference going 0-9 so far, but they are getting around 9 1/2 points in the 1h of this one (game is at 18 1/2). I'd keep it cheap, but there's certainly enough trend there, to keep playing the 1h fade, 2nd half bet'em game.

TT 1h +9 1/2 ish... I'll be quick to play Texas at half time, if they don't cover the first half. They should pound em 2nd half. This one might play out like their home game vs ISU though, where they reversed the trend in both haves. So be careful. Again, if you're shy or conservative, you may want to wait until the next one at Texas A/M that should give us a great 1h number to work with, and sets up nicely.

Colorado -6. Oregon is playing better ball than recent past years, but Colorado is my favorite under the radar team in america right now (outside of the Uconn 1h fade... of course). Colorado is a sneaky 9-3 ATS in pac 12 play. They should shoot the Ducks in the high thin air.

Wash/USC is off the board right now, but just an observation... USC went to Oregon, and covered the 6 1/2, even though the Ducks led wire to wire, and then got blown out 2 days later at the beavers, when Oregon ST was a 9 1/2 point fav and won by like 19. Now USC is playing the same game with Wash St and Wash. USC hung around all game, in a nearly identical style game as the Duck game, with the Cougars again favored by a similar 6 1/2. Fortunately the Cougars covered by the hook. Now I expect Washington to be a small double digit fav, and I wouldn't be shy about laying the points. I expect a huskie win by 15ish. It would be nice to get a USC team total around 56 and play the under, but Vegas might not be that generous.

analyzer 02-04-2012 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyzer (Post 1779242)
Wash/USC is off the board right now, but just an observation... USC went to Oregon, and covered the 6 1/2, even though the Ducks led wire to wire, and then got blown out 2 days later at the beavers, when Oregon ST was a 9 1/2 point fav and won by like 19. Now USC is playing the same game with Wash St and Wash. USC hung around all game, in a nearly identical style game as the Duck game, with the Cougars again favored by a similar 6 1/2. Fortunately the Cougars covered by the hook. Now I expect Washington to be a small double digit fav, and I wouldn't be shy about laying the points. I expect a huskie win by 15ish. It would be nice to get a USC team total around 56 and play the under, but Vegas might not be that generous.

Wash is -11, and funny, they set the USC TT at exactly 56.

analyzer 02-04-2012 12:45 PM

With 5 minutes left in the half, SH is just 4 of 22 (.186). pbalz

Caitlyn Cwissy 02-04-2012 12:48 PM

Preposterous.

analyzer 02-04-2012 12:58 PM

Uconn wins the half 30-17 despite shooting 37%, and 1-8 from 3. SH was just 6 of 28 (.214), 1-11 from 3, and 4-8 from the charity stripe. Gawd there's some bad basketball this year. For cwis sake, everyone can't shave at the same time, there aren't enough sinks. 1_.

stevo 02-04-2012 01:42 PM

One day I'm glad I got up late. I seem to be lucking out on the misses. Last time they covered I just missed the tip by a few minutes. Was up late last night and slept in.

SuperBowl tomorrow!

analyzer 02-04-2012 02:00 PM

This one was somewhat predictable. Uconn has to put some wins up, or they risk missing the dance. As does Texas. The next two uconn road games should be good fades for us.

talcen 02-04-2012 03:58 PM

The conductor of the orchestra Jim Calhoun took the game off, guess the assistant wasn't in on the fix.

analyzer 02-04-2012 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by talcen (Post 1779268)
The conductor of the orchestra Jim Calhoun took the game off, guess the assistant wasn't in on the fix.

interesting

There seemed to be some bench contributors, maybe the assistant sat a few. The game was 14-13 with about 7 minutes left in the first half, and Uconn went on a 10-0 run. I should look and see which players contributed to that run, and how they compare to previous weeks numbers. Either way, pretty tough to dump to a team that shoots 20% and scores 17 points.

analyzer 02-05-2012 01:09 AM

Washington -11, and the USC TT U56, was the only saving grace in a pretty ugly day. I had a hunch Texas and Uconn were going to pound their opponents today. I am sorry for steering anyone wrong.

Nino's Tenn Under stopped at 9 in a row. Vegas finally set the total low enough to burn the run on unders. Georgia was hitting 1/2 of their 3's at one point. it was just a little too much.

damn.

Well, uconn should get beat by both Lsville and syracuse. We'll have to see how those go. In years past, their little 1h fade, has been 8-12 games, and we're in that range, so maybe it's over. 7 of 9, isn't too bad I suppose. 9 of 11 would be better.

analyzer 02-06-2012 06:18 PM

For record keeping purposes:

Louisville 1h -2

Texas A/M 1h +1 1/2


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:01 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6