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Old 12-26-2011, 11:51 AM
bazanster2 bazanster2 is offline
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Default Independence Bowl Missouri vs North Carolina

Missouri vs. North Carolina

============================================
National NCAA Rankings:
============================================
Advocare 100 Indepenence Bowl

.............................Missouri....NC
Rush Off....................11.........70
Pass Off.....................58.........42
Total Off....................12.........50
Scoring Off.................32.........57
Rush Def....................43.........14
Pass Efficiency Def.......52.........61
Total Def....................60.........40
Scoring Def................44.........44
Net Punting................52.........84
Punt Returns..............53........109
KO Return..................68.........14
TO Margin..................42.........68
Pass Def.....................91.........90
Pass Efficiency Off.......30.........10
Sacks........................42.........43
Tackle Of Loss............20.........34
Sacks Allowed.............40.........75

Sacks Allowed..............18.........26
Def Sacks...................25.........25

TO Gained...................20........23
TO Lost......................18........24
=========================
Yards Per Point:
.....................Off YPP/Def YPP..Diff
Missouri .............14.1/16.3....(+2.2)
NC ....................14.0/15.0....(+1.0)

Penalties:
Missouri......64 for 544 yards
NC.............68 for 603 yards

3rd Down Conversion:
Missouri.....37% Off/40% Def
NC............38% Off/42% Def



Red Zone Rank:
---------------
Missouri....22nd Off/23rd Def(tie)
NC...........71st Off/23rd Def(tie)


USA Today Strength of Schedule:
Missouri.....78.82..(8)
NC.............70.36..(53)


=============================
(16) Missiouri(1)
=============================
(90)..Kansas...........24-10
(52)..TexTech..........31-27
(17)..Texas.............17-5
(12)..Baylor............39-42
(11)..Texas A&M......38-31
(3)...Oklahoma St....24-45
(33)..Iowa St...........52-17
(14)..Kansas St........17-24
(4)...Oklahoma.........28-38
(185).W.Illinios..........69-0
(39)..Arizona St.........30-37
(96)..Miami(OH).........17-6

=========================
(51)North Carolina(6)
==========================

(109)..Duke....................37-21
(26)...V.Tech..................21-24
(66)...NC St......................0-13
(73)...WakeForest............49-24
(24)...Clemson................38-59
(43)...Miami....................24-30
(59)...Louisville.................14-7
(95)...E.Carolina..............35-20
(50)...G.Tech..................28-35
(67)...Virginia..................28-17
(46)...Rutgers..................24-22
(124)..James Madison.......42-10

Note: rankings from Saragin in USA Today.
============================
Sports Betting Odds, Picks and Statistics €“ Covers.com

TRENDS:

- Missouri is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on grass.
- Missouri is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games.
- North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.
- North Carolina is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-3 in Missouri's last 12 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-4 in UNC's last 13 games vs. winning teams.

PREDICTION: Missouri 27, North Carolina 23

===================================
Statfox:
NCAA Football*-*Missouri takes on UNC Monday in Shreveport*-*StatFox News

Gary Pinkel is 35-22 ATS (61.4%, +10.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
as the coach of MISSOURI. The average score was MISSOURI 32.9, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 1*).

The Tigers have played three straight games Under the Total and this four-star
FoxSheets trend expects the UNDER to occur again:

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MISSOURI) -
outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season. (29-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
(85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*).

Tigers are playing better football than the Heels right now, these two teams have remarkably similar numbers.
They are both 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, and have both given up 23.5 PPG. UNC has allowed 30.2 PPG in non-home games,
and Missouri has allowed 30.3 PPG in non-home games. The difference comes on the offensive end,
as the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in yardage (472 YPG) and Carolina is 50th (397 YPG).
In terms of rushing the football, Mizzou ranks 11th in FBS (236 YPG) and the Heels place 70th (147 YPG).
The Tigers have also played a tougher schedule in the Big 12
and have a more dynamic quarterback in James Franklin.
The pick here is MISSOURI to win and cover.

==================================
Phil Steele:
In his confidence index, it's leans towards Missouri,
however, it's the 3rd lowest one.

He should have his prediction a few hours prior to kick-off:
Phil Steele
=================================
MajorWager Bowl votes split with one more vote on NC.
=================================

Baz Take:
Mizzouri has victories over #11 Tx A&M, #17 Texas and #33 Iowa St.
They had close losses(7 pts or less) to #12 Bayor, #14 K.State and #39 Ariz St.
They also lost to #4 Oklahoma by 10 pts.

They faced 7 teams ranked in top 20 in Passing Yards.
Defeating(Rankings are for Pass Yardage) #14 Miami(OH) and #18 TX
with close losses to #5 Baylor, #6 TxTech and #10 Ariz St.
Okla #4 in Passing yards defeated the Tigers by 10 pts.

In contrast, teams that NC has defeated is #46 Rutgers, #59 Louisville and #67 Virginia.with losses to:
(24) Clemson 38-59, (26) V.Tech 21-24, (43) Miami 24-30, (46) Rutgers 24-22, (50) G.Tech 28-35 and (66) NC St 0-13

Since the stats for these teams are reasonably close.
Mizzouri has more difficulty with teams that can throw the ball, so would expect NC to lean towards the air in this one.
Going with the team, Mizzouri, from the better Conference and has faced better competition.

gl,

baz

Last edited by bazanster2 : 12-26-2011 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 12-26-2011, 02:37 PM
analyzer analyzer is offline
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I just lost 20 minutes of work on this game. I hit a button and it was gone. It's probably just as well, as it was largely a bunch of jibberish that would've been a waste of your time to read.

Thank you for your write up Baz. Great work as usual. I'm having a hard time finding an edge in this game. Mizz lost their starting rb, henry Josey, vs texas a couple weeks ago, but IMO, unless you're talking about Barry Sanders, RB is the most replaceable component on any team.

UNC is good against the run, so they should be able to contain Mizzou a little in that regard. God may contain the passing games, as there is a 40% chance of rain. Up to a 1/4" so not some sort of deluge, but enough to make the ball wet.

UNC has had an interim coaching staff all season, and apparently they have a nice connection with the players, who want to send them out with a win.

Missouri was overlooked by all the bowls with big 12 connections. There were 7 such bowls, and 8 bowl-eligible big 12 teams, and Missouri, despite beating A/M, Tex, and ISU, and having the same or better record, was the odd man out. That might leave the Tigers with a little sour taste in their mouth, and they may not be super happy to be in Shreveport again. I suspect it had everything to do with Mizz leaving for the SEC. They better hope this isn't big 12 officials (some info on that would be nice, i don't know where to look).

Coaches have a history of either performing well in bowl games (Ferentz for example) or poorly in bowl games (Bo Schembechler 5-12, 2-10 rose bowls comes to mind). I think they either figure out how to motivate a team for a meaningless bowl game, weeks after the season has ended, or they can't. Pinkel is 3-4 in bowls, and have lost the last 2, with far more talented Tiger teams. Tom Osborne struggled for years in the bowl games. His teams often lost a late one to the Sooners, and couldn't get fired up for the bowl games.

I'm not sure Pinkel fits in that category, his team is coming off winning 4 of their last 5, and certainly more difficult opponents (not counting KU), than the stiffs UNC lost to in 4 of their last 6.

I passed on many of the early bowl games this year, and considering so many have gone right down to the wire ATS, it was with good reason. Ohio won with 13 seconds left. Smiss covers if it's a 61 minute game, and probably the same for TCU. Marshall/FIU was determined by a blocked punt with 5 minutes left, or they might still be punting the ball to each other as I write. This game may be no different.

Both kickers are suspect. Missouri lost their starting kicker to injury, after he missed 8 of 17 attempts. His backup, is just 5 of 7. UNC's kicker isn't much better I hear. I'm not sure I want to lay points on a team that can't kick, may not be able to run, and has a porous pass defense. I'm going to go with UNC here, and hope they score enough to hang around, and maybe Mizz misses a couple fgs' to help out.

I don't like the O/U. I sure as hell don't want to play the over when it might rain, and both teams seemed scoring challenged at times this year, and I don't like the under, when both teams can give it up in the passing game. This is like one of those 3-stooges games: yuk yuk yuk.

I'm going to cheat. I hear it might rain early, and clear late. Both teams will probably beat their brains against a wall trying to establish a run for a quarter and a half, before figuring out, passing is easy. I'm going with the first half under, and UNC for the game:

1h U27
UNC +5

Incidentally, there's not a ton of bowl contest stars at risk in this one. Mr. negative was the only one willing to wager a 3 star on the outcome (mizz), which should tell you something. Charlie Brown is trying to go 3 for 3 on his 2 stars with Mizzou, and Spraguer counters with a 2 star on UNC. A couple of 1 stars round out the action with Frank and ZZtop taking UNC as well. It's ZZtops first action of the bowl season, leaving Material Florida as the only contestant left with a blank slate.

On the FREE side of things, Backdoorcover tries to hit his 2nd 3star on UNC, while RM goes for a 2star mizz dip.

The action is slow and split. Only the degenerates, and fans of both teams will be interested in this one. Yuk.
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Old 12-26-2011, 02:48 PM
analyzer analyzer is offline
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From a selfish standpoint, I'd love to see another one land right on the number. 5 points is tough though. 42-37, 35-30, 28-23, 24-19, 21-16, 14-9 are about the only decent ways to get there. Considering all of those need multiple fgs, by one side or the other, I'm not counting on it. But they kick so bad, that missing an extra point is a possibility, which means numbers like 37, 30, 23, 16, and 9, are all just one fg, and one missed pat. That could work. Aren't you glad you took the time to read this drivel. Sorry.
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Old 12-26-2011, 03:20 PM
analyzer analyzer is offline
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I forgot to put in a final score. I'll say 24-21 Missouri.
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Old 12-26-2011, 04:28 PM
Total Square Total Square is offline
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was thinking unc, but the coach has been splitting his time between game prep and recruiting for ohio st. have to think he has already checked out and the players know it
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Old 12-26-2011, 04:46 PM
bazanster2 bazanster2 is offline
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Analyzer

Thanks for the write up.
That is a valid point, the lost of Josey is a factor.
Henry Josey, RB averaged 8.1 yards per carry (2nd among the top 100 RB), with 9TDs.
Sanders kind of numbers. He was ranked 11th in Yards per game.
Since Josey injury, Kendial Lawrence has gotten the call.
He averaged 3.7 vs Kansas and 6.2 yards a carry vs. TexasTech.
His overall Season Averge is 4.4 per carry.

In terms of Pass Defense, the way I look at it,
Missouri has faced a lot of top passing teams compared to NC.
On the Season, NC Allowed 246 yards passing and Missouri allowed 247 passing yards.
So would be inclined to think that Missouri Pass Defense is a bit under rated.
NC does have a sight edge in Run Defense, 3.1 yards allowed to 3.6

Other than the Temple and Boise St games, these Bowl games have been close.
These aren't the usual mismatches, these are competitive teams where you can flip a coin.
-5 or -5.5 isn't a particularly good number.
Because it appeared that Missouri had wins over higher ranked teams, is from a tougher conference
and the fact that teams that win, tend to cover, took Missouri.
Again, the lost of Posey will hurt.
Actually, I split that action.
I tood Missouri with Lousillve for a small wager, will hedge off.
Made a small wager -6.5 teaser with Louisville.

Then a small +6.5 teaser wager on the Under (due to the Foxstat trends) with Louisville also.
The main reason I took Louisville is because the lopsided vote in the NCAA Football Contest.
A win by NC would not be that big a surprise.

gl,

baz
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Old 12-26-2011, 08:07 PM
bazanster2 bazanster2 is offline
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PHIL’S FORECAST: Missouri 27 North Carolina 26
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Old 12-26-2011, 09:39 PM
analyzer analyzer is offline
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I missed this one entirely. Should have stuck with the early gut, that Mizz is just a better team, and UNC is not very good. Sorry.

@7-9 I continue to struggle through the early bowls. Good thing I didn't put any bowl picks on this crap.
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