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  #39 (permalink)  
Old 04-24-2011, 09:58 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Somebody went crazy buying bitcoins over the weekend...



65k bitcoins bought (more than 1% of the outstanding total) on Saturday at an average price of $1.70-ish (peaking at about $2).
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  #40 (permalink)  
Old 04-28-2011, 07:57 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Broke $2 per bitcoin on heavy volume.

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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 04-28-2011, 08:03 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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The CIA is getting interested in Bitcoin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin Andresen (the main developer of the software that runs Bitcoin)
I want to get this out in the open because it is the kind of thing that will generate conspiracy theories: I'm going to give a presentation about Bitcoin at CIA headquarters in June at an emerging technologies conference for the US intelligence community.

I accepted the invitation to speak because the fact that I was invited means Bitcoin is already on their radar, and I think it might be a good chance to talk about why I think Bitcoin will make the world a better place. I think the goals of this project are to create a better currency, create a more competitive and efficient international payment system, and give people more direct control over their finances. And I don't think any of those goals are incompatible with the goals of government.

I'm only very slightly worried that talking about bitcoin at the CIA will increase the chances they'll try to do something we don't want them to do. I think accepting their invitation and being open about exactly what bitcoin is will make it less likely they'll see it as a threat.

PS: Full disclosure: I'll be paid a one-time fee of $3,000 to cover expenses and pay me for my time. I don't want any "Gavin is on the CIA's payroll" rumors to get started, either...

As always, comments and questions and discussion welcome. I'd really rather not hear any conspiracy theories about how they'll secretly implant a mind-control chip in my head while I'm there, though....
The thought has crossed my mind a few times that the CIA would certainly find ways to use Bitcoin.
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 04-28-2011, 10:39 PM
j j is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfleqbc View Post
The CIA is getting interested in Bitcoin

The thought has crossed my mind a few times that the CIA would certainly find ways to use Bitcoin.
I'd be more worried that the CIA would write a memo claiming it was a way for terrorists to anonymously fund operations--and start the ball rolling to put an end to it on that pretext.

Can't imagine what caused that run-up...I wonder what kind of volume it took to do that.
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 04-28-2011, 11:49 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j View Post
I'd be more worried that the CIA would write a memo claiming it was a way for terrorists to anonymously fund operations--and start the ball rolling to put an end to it on that pretext.
A way to anonymously/pseudonymously send money across borders, with a high level of deniability, is something the CIA would love to have, especially for paying people who aren't high-value enough to be setting up accounts on a tropic isle or Switzerland/IoM/etc.

* CIA pays informant in China or Iran in bitcoins
* Informant uses bitcoins to buy drugs
* Informant sells drugs, pockets cash

(or alternatively, the informant sells his bitcoins to people all over the world who WU him money or whatever)

The Fed, IRS, and the FBI won't be/aren't too happy about bitcoin, but for the CIA, this sort of thing is what they want.

At MtGox, the volume over the past 3 days of run-up has been 170k BTC (or 350k-400k USD flowing in).

Technical analysis
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 04-28-2011, 11:56 PM
j j is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfleqbc View Post
A way to anonymously/pseudonymously send money across borders, with a high level of deniability, is something the CIA would love to have, especially for paying people who aren't high-value enough to be setting up accounts on a tropic isle or Switzerland/IoM/etc.

* CIA pays informant in China or Iran in bitcoins
* Informant uses bitcoins to buy drugs
* Informant sells drugs, pockets cash

(or alternatively, the informant sells his bitcoins to people all over the world who WU him money or whatever)

The Fed, IRS, and the FBI won't be/aren't too happy about bitcoin, but for the CIA, this sort of thing is what they want.

At MtGox, the volume over the past 3 days of run-up has been 170k BTC (or 350k-400k USD flowing in).

Technical analysis
Thanks for the info...glad you've got your eye on this.
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2011, 11:18 AM
sylf sylf is offline
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good stuff. thanks.
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2011, 12:26 PM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfleqbc View Post
Bitcoin's distributed software is set to slow production over time so that there will never be more than 21 million in circulation. "No banker can control it. No evil dictator tyrant can print zillions and destroy the value," says Bruce Wagner, organizer of New York's Bitcoin developer's meet-up.
okay BC, what am i missing here?

what's to stop Bill Gates or CIA for that matter to buy all 21/million bitcoin and control the "bank"?

like that chart you threw up, and said someone went crazy over the weekend buying 65k bitcoins ...
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2011, 01:14 PM
j j is offline
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Starnet...What do you mean by control the bank? If Gates bought 21 million worth of BC the price would go up...but once he started to unload them the price would go down...maybe a wealthy person could do market head fakes a la Billy Walters...but that's just a feature of all markets.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2011, 01:29 PM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j View Post
Starnet...What do you mean by control the bank? If Gates bought 21 million worth of BC the price would go up...but once he started to unload them the price would go down...maybe a wealthy person could do market head fakes a la Billy Walters...but that's just a feature of all markets.
this is what i mean, J. there's roughly 6/mil bitcoins out now. if Gates were to snatch the other 15/mil shares and lock his memory chip in a safe for his grandchild someday, there would only be 6/mil in circulation and would eventually lose their value because of the limited # of transactions they'd be able to do.

i don't know, maybe this is over my head ...
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2011, 11:31 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy View Post
this is what i mean, J. there's roughly 6/mil bitcoins out now. if Gates were to snatch the other 15/mil shares and lock his memory chip in a safe for his grandchild someday, there would only be 6/mil in circulation and would eventually lose their value because of the limited # of transactions they'd be able to do.

i don't know, maybe this is over my head ...
The other 15 million don't exist yet.

This is where it gets technical, but basically computers participating in the bitcoin network are solving semi-meaningless math problems (in order for a block to be considered valid, it has to have a solution to a particular problem). The first computer to solve the problem gets rewarded with (for now) 50 bitcoins at which point the computers race to solve the next problem. Based on how quickly the past few problems have been solved, the network adjusts the difficulty of the math problems so that a problem gets solved every 10 minutes. So every hour, on average, 300 new bitcoins are "mined", every day sees an average of 7200 new bitcoins become available and every year adds an average of 2.6 million and change.

Two things change that figure. The first is that every four years the reward gets cut in half. After 4 years (or in about 20 or so months) there will be about 10.5 million bitcoins available. The next 4 years will add another 5.3 million more (to 15.8 million or so) and then 2.6 million (for 18.4 million) and so forth. So if Gates wanted to mine all the bitcoins, he'd have to devote a ton of computer power (which means spending a lot on electricity) and even then he'd have to wait decades for the mining to complete.

The other thing that changes those figures is that there's a bit of lag in adjusting the difficulty. In oil exploration or gold mining there are reserves that are known about but aren't exploited because there's no money in it at the current prices, but if the price rises suddenly that production comes on-line. A similar thing is happening in bitcoin right now. There is some dollar/euro/yen/whatever expended in mining bitcoins: you have to acquire computer power and also buy electricity to keep the computer running. Different computers have different levels of number-crunching power relative to their electricity consumption. When bitcoins were worth 50 cents, a lot of people decided it wasn't worth the electricity to take a chance on winning the race to get 50 bitcoins. With bitcoins nearing $3 right now it's a bit more of a useful proposition. This spike in computing power attacking the math problems now means that each problem is getting solved (on average) in about 7-8 minutes instead of 10 so that right now more than 400 bitcoins per hour are getting mined.
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 11:22 AM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfleqbc View Post
The other 15 million don't exist yet.
thanks for that explanation, BC

i think i'll stick with silver & gold, something i can sink my teeth into
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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 04:35 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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This guy is sitting on a million bucks worth of bitcoins

Quote:
https://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.ph...4.0;attach=167

https://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.php?topic=564.0

Last Active: December 31, 2010, 12:21:02 pm

That was a whole bunch of bitcoins. MIA 4 months. Last posts were all the way from August. Wonder if he knows he has a million dollars.

371,067.36 BTC @ 2.95 = $1,094,648.71
Quote:
Oh, I'm still alive and kicking.

Yeah, still have them, though like was said, it would not be possible to sell them all at once and become an instant millionaire. No one is going to buy that many at once. I have kept my client running 24/7 since then though, managed to generate a bit more before the collective mining groups took over

Without the massive server farm I had going before, I'm just down to my personal desktop, so it's never gotten over the 371k since.

I do keep many, many backups though just in case
He could easily sell a few hundred to a thousand a week and not have to work for a few years.
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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 04:39 PM
luke m. luke m. is offline
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NFL Quebec how much bitcoin do you have?
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 04:44 PM
talcen talcen is offline
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I like the Warren Buffet approach, "if I don't understand it, I'm not buying it."
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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 04:58 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luke m. View Post
NFL Quebec how much bitcoin do you have?
I'm kicking myself for not buying any at a dollar... was thinking about it and decided that I didn't have the liquidity to buy some.

At the moment, I don't have any (though I've got a couple of computers "mining" it). If the value is holding up reasonably well in a couple of months I'll probably buy in.
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  #55 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2011, 05:01 PM
Caitlyn Cwissy Caitlyn Cwissy is offline
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 05-10-2011, 07:17 PM
nfleqbc nfleqbc is offline
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Bitcoin just zoomed past the $4 and $5 barriers on heavy volume.

One bitcoin now buys at least 1 unit of every fiat currency on earth.

Next target: parity between bitcoin and one ounce of silver.
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  #57 (permalink)  
Old 05-10-2011, 07:52 PM
Caitlyn Cwissy Caitlyn Cwissy is offline
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Cwissy bet 40 bitcoins on Hockeytown -140.
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