Trojans expected to rebound

[clevfan]

Nov. 07, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Trojans expected to rebound

Carroll's teams have responded well after losses

By PAUL STONE
SPECIAL TO THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

With most of last year's defense now in the NFL and true freshman Matt Barkley at the helm of the offense, Southern California is not the same team.

The Trojans have had their moments this season -- their 27-point victory at California on Oct. 3 being the best example.

But last weekend at Autzen Stadium, USC saw its faint hopes of a national title go up in smoke, as Oregon abused the Trojans' defense en route to a 47-20 victory.

The Ducks rushed for 391 yards and gained 613 yards against the Trojans, who experienced their most lopsided defeat since 1997.

And while USC no longer is in the national title conversation, coach Pete Carroll's teams have performed well after a straight-up loss, going 10-5 against the spread (ATS) in that role.

Arizona State (4-4) has not defeated a team with a winning record all season, and that streak will continue today. The Sun Devils are off a 23-21 home loss to Cal.

Lay the 10 points and take the Trojans to rebound from last week's embarrassing defeat.

Six more plays for today (home team in CAPS):

• Northwestern (+16) over IOWA -- The Hawkeyes pulled off one of the miracle point-spread covers of the season last week against Indiana. But they are in a classic look-ahead spot now with a huge trip to Ohio State on deck.

Also, Iowa is 5-13 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of the 2006 season.

• Duke (+10) over NORTH CAROLINA -- The past four meetings between these Tobacco Road rivals have been decided by eight points or less.

North Carolina is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit Atlantic Coast Conference favorite since 2002. Duke is 29-13 ATS as an away underdog over the same span.

• South Carolina (+7) over ARKANSAS -- The Razorbacks have made great strides in coach Bobby Petrino's second season, but they are not ready to lay a touchdown to a Southeastern Conference foe of this caliber.

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett lacks mobility, and the Gamecocks' pass rush, even without Cliff Matthews, should pose problems.

• KANSAS STATE (+3) over Kansas -- Since a 52-point loss at Texas Tech, the Wildcats have played well in winning two of their past three games. Kansas has lost three straight, as these Big 12 North rivals appear to be headed in different directions.

• PENN STATE (-4) over Ohio State -- The Nittany Lions have improved as the season has progressed and have the edge at quarterback with Daryll Clark over Terrelle Pryor.

Happy Valley has not been kind to the Buckeyes, as they have covered only one game in their past five trips there.

• Oregon-STANFORD (Over 581/2) -- The Ducks and junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli have been virtually unstoppable since a season-opening debacle on the blue turf at Boise State. Oregon is averaging 39.6 points during its seven-game winning streak.

Stanford, led by hard-charging tailback Toby Gerhart, has scored at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game this season.

Last week: 4-3 against the spread

Season: 19-29-1

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegassportsauthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal this season.