Zenyatta not a sure bet in Breeders' Cup Classic

[clevfan]

MODESTI: Zenyatta not a sure bet in Breeders' Cup Classic

By Kevin Modesti, Columnist
Updated: 11/05/2009 10:56:11 PM PST
LA Daily News

Will Zenyatta really be favored in the Breeders' Cup Classic?

It's an academic question - there's no official glory in being the favorite - but the fact it's asked says a lot about how horse racing has changed. The window to this sport's soul is a betting window.

As racetrack veterans understand, but many neophytes don't realize, horses' odds aren't established by the house. Yes, a track employee sets the so-called morning line, but it's only his forecast of the final odds and it's merely a guide for fans. The actual odds that flash on the infield tote board and determine the eventual payoffs are set by the public - the more money bet on a horse, the lower his odds.

After the 13-horse field was determined earlier this week for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, the $5million main event of the two-day Breeders' Cup, Santa Anita morning-line maker Jon White handed down odds with Zenyatta, the unbeaten mare, the favorite at 5-2, ahead of Rip Van Winkle (7-2), a European star, and Summer Bird (9-2), the Belmont Stakes winner.

This was no surprise - White had told reporters he planned to favor Zenyatta - but it prompted a debate among handicappers.

Will the only mare in America's richest race be favored after the millions of dollars in win bets have been counted?

In explaining his decision, White ticked off Zenyatta's considerable credentials, including her 13 for 13 in races, her affinity for Santa Anita's synthetic main track, the likelihood her late-running style will be a good fit as she stretches out to the Classic's 1 1/4-mile distance.

He noted possible reservations about Rip Van Winkle, including the fact the 3-year-old is totally unproven on synthetic surfaces, having run all of his races on grass in the British Isles.

White also alluded to an intangible reason he expects Zenyatta to pull in a lot of money.

"I also think she will get a lot of play because of her big-time reputation," he said.

I think Zenyatta's reputation, in terms of its effect on the betting, might mean less now than it might have meant in years past.

Just as I think Zenyatta's folk-hero appeal, her crowd-pleasing come-from-behind racing style, as well as her potential history-making distinction as the would-be First Female to Win the Classic, might mean less now than they did a decade or two ago.

The 5-year-old mare - owned by A&M Records co-founder Jerry Moss, and named for a Police album, just to add celebrity glamour to her aura - is what used to be known as a "public horse." People wave signs at her towering form in the winner's circles of Southern California tracks. She receives fan mail at trainer John Shirreffs' barn at Hollywood Park.

Once upon a time, a public horse could tilt the odds board. The racetrack gambling public included the proverbial little old ladies (nevermind if they were little, old, or ladies) who bet on such trivialities as colors, names, numbers, jockeys and reputations. And most of the money gambled on the races came from the grandstand of that track.

Two things changed: The proverbial little old ladies virtually disappeared from horse racing, siphoned off by the simpler games of chance found in lotteries and casinos, taking their ill-informed public money with them.

And technology expanded wagering pools at, say, Santa Anita, to include money wagered all over the country and the world, wiping out the effects of hometown biases.

Of course, the loss of casual gamblers is a huge reason for horse racing's economic struggles, since it's casual fans who filled out the grandstands and casual fans who had a chance to turn into diehards. And it's discouraging for expert bettors, who used to enjoy putting their "smart" money up against the crowd's "silly" money but now find themselves knocking heads with each other.

For our purposes, wondering who's going to be favored in Saturday's Classic, the change in racing's demographics is important to remember.

I've met a lot of people who are picking Zenyatta to win, most of them Southern Californians who have been watching her for three years, many of them sharp handicappers whose judgments can't be dismissed.

But I've met far more bettors who look forward to betting against Zenyatta, believing the male heavyweights in the Classic will be too tough for her.

A USA Today reporter who has been polling racing writers from around the nation said Zenyatta has received "not much support at all." A British bookmaker sent out updated odds Thursday listing Rip Van Winkle as a 7-4 favorite and Zenyatta a 3-1 second choice. We'll see on Saturday how much weight those opinions carry, perhaps a lot.

Zenyatta probably will be favored.

If she isn't, or if it's close, it's the latest sign that for horse racing, it's a smaller, smaller world.