RICHARD ENG: Strong Euro entries spice up Breeders' Cup

[clevfan]

Nov. 06, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

RICHARD ENG: Strong Euro entries spice up Breeders' Cup

The two-day Breeders' Cup bills itself as the World Championships, and this year the two-day event finally might be recognized for living up to its name. Last year, the Euros won five and placed in five of the 14 races. This year they have a good chance to do even better.

In comparing the Santa Anita morning line, done by Jon White, versus the favorite's odds in the final futures from William Hill bookmakers, we'll see the obvious strength of this year's Euro contingent.

To start with, White made Euros the favorite in five races. At William Hill, Euros are favored in eight races. They agreed on Mastery (Marathon), Lillie Langtry (Juvenile Fillies Turf), Conduit (Turf), Goldikova (Mile) and Mastercraftsman (Dirt Mile). Foreign punters differed with White in also favoring Midday (Filly & Mare Turf), Pounced (Juvenile Turf) and Rip Van Winkle (Classic).

This will be intriguing in two ways: who wins the most races, Euro or U.S. horses, and who the betting public settles upon for race favoritism.

White made Mastercraftsman at 6-5 the lowest-odds Breeders' Cup favorite. At William Hill, Ventura (Filly & Mare Sprint) and Conduit at 5-4 odds were the lowest.

Now the value in betting on the Breeders' Cup is in trying to beat these favorites because top horses routinely outrun their high odds. However, after handicapping both days' cards, it seems many of these chalk horses appear nearly unstoppable.

Horses that I will consider singling in horizontal wagers include Mastery, Ventura, Lookin at Lucky (Juvenile), Goldikova and Mastercraftsman. Conduit will not be one of them. Two Euros in the Turf field -- Dar Re Mi and Spanish Moon -- are near equals with him.

Even if many races look fairly chalky, there will be lots of chances to blow up the tote board. Two long shots that I like are Gotta Have Her (15-1, Turf Sprint) and Gio Ponti (12-1, Classic).

The Turf Sprint is the toughest race in the Breeders' Cup sequence. Last year was equally wide open when Desert Code upset and paid $75 to win. Gotta Have Her has won all four of her starts down the tricky hillside turf course. She won last time by two lengths in the Senator Ken Maddy stakes and is peaking at the right time.

Gio Ponti offers much to like at 12-1 odds. He's a natural stayer at the classic 11/4-mile distance. He won four consecutive Grade I races this year, a sure sign of class. And he has an explosive late kick best shown with an honest pace in front of him. Critics will point out his dismal fifth-place finish in the Strub over Santa Anita's Pro Ride surface this spring. But watch the replay: Garrett Gomez had Gio Ponti pocketed almost the entire trip.

• VEGAS NOTES -- Locally, there will be no shortage of Breeders' Cup activity. In the Sam's Town race book at 6 tonight, the "Track Talk" radio crew of Gordon Jones, John Kelly and Patrick McQuiggan will give a free handicapping seminar. ...

Station Casinos and Lucky's will offer special twin quinella wagers. Lucky's will fund a $5,000 pool today and Saturday. Station will offer a $20,000 twin quinella Saturday. ...

On Saturday, the South Point and The Orleans will host free Breeders' Cup ballroom parties. At the Orleans party, Jon Lindo and Ralph Siraco will conduct a last-chance seminar at 9 a.m.