MATT YOUMANS: Kansas, Kentucky pace hoops picks

[clevfan]

Nov. 06, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

MATT YOUMANS: Kansas, Kentucky pace hoops picks

It was a long summer for Rick Pitino, who revealed an extramarital sexual encounter and an extortion attempt against him. The Louisville basketball coach was publicly embarrassed, to say the least.

So as Pitino tries to bury the story and ignore questions about distractions, his problems are about to get compounded. John Calipari has arrived at Kentucky with a carnival of NBA-caliber talent.

An eventful offseason in college basketball ends Monday, when defending national champion North Carolina hosts Florida International and first-year coach Isiah Thomas.

Kansas is a 4-1 favorite to win the NCAA championship. Jayhawks coach Bill Self's team, featuring 6-foot-11-inch Cole Aldrich and senior point guard Sherron Collins, is the clear-cut No. 1.

"I'd say Kansas is rated three to four points higher than anybody right now, but that can change," Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Ken White said. "I definitely think there are four or five other teams right there."

Calipari has one of those teams. White ranks the Wildcats second. Junior forward Patrick Patterson returns to join two of Calipari's prized recruits, 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and point guard John Wall.

"Patterson is one of the best players in the country. He could be playing in the NBA now. Cousins is going to be an unbelievable player," White said. "But it's going to take some time for them to jell and learn Calipari's dribble-drive motion offense."

The Tar Heels lost four starters, including Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. Don't cry for coach Roy Williams, though.

"Even though Carolina lost so many players from that championship team, they just reloaded," White said. "They are deep, athletic and talented, and they're in a battle with Kansas and Kentucky."

There might be no better sport to bet than college basketball. With more than 300 Division I teams, oddsmakers are challenged to open sharp lines. And it's inevitable some soft lines will show up, especially in November and December.

White said he has spent "about 120 hours so far" analyzing statistics, studying recruiting and projecting ratings for players and teams.

"I've still got a lot left to do," he said. "I've been working at least eight to 10 hours a day. But I love it. It's a puzzle being put together. I would have to say I make bigger adjustments earlier in the year than any other time."

There's no sense in betting Kansas to win the title now, and Kentucky is no early steal at 6-1 odds. North Carolina (10-1), Texas (12-1) and Michigan State (15-1) also are legitimate contenders. Instead, look for futures wagers on teams offering more long-shot value.

California, the best team in the Pacific-10 Conference, is at 80-1 at Lucky's sports books. Golden Bears coach Mike Montgomery returns four starters on a team with Final Four potential.

Betting action at Lucky's forced odds to be lowered on West Virginia (18-1), Purdue (20-1) and Villanova (20-1).

When the games start, keep an eye on Washington and star sophomore point guard Isaiah Thomas -- not to be confused with the Florida International coach.

Oklahoma State is another team flying under the radar. The Cowboys' James Anderson is a big-time player, and coach Travis Ford dictates a fast-paced style that helps to cover point spreads.

If you want sleeper teams, look for Akron, Butler, Dayton, Illinois, Michigan, Niagara, Siena, Tulsa, Utah State and even UNLV, which I project to win 24 games.

The Blue Ribbon Yearbook excluded Louisville from the preseason top 25. But White said he is higher than most on the Cardinals, so maybe Pitino has a prayer of competing with Calipari.

Winning would help Pitino put his troubled summer in the past.

• CLOSING NUMBERS -- The college football schedule this weekend is as dull as it gets. After going 3-3 two weeks ago, I took a needed bye last week. Here are my six picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Louisiana State (+8) over ALABAMA; KANSAS STATE (+3) over Kansas; STANFORD (+7) over Oregon; Southern California (-10) over ARIZONA STATE; MICHIGAN (-6) over Purdue; UNLV (-1) over Colorado State.