FBO: Offensive hopes for LSU, Bama

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Offensive hopes for LSU, Bama

Even against two of the best defenses in the country, offensive opportunities still exist

By Bill Connelly
Football Outsiders

Ask somebody to list the 10 biggest names in Saturday's LSU-Alabama game, and odds are good that at least seven of them will be defensive players. Alabama has Rolando McClain, Javier Arenas, kick-blocking Terrence Cody and Mark Barron. LSU has Chad Jones, Kelvin Sheppard, and ball-hawking cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Chris Hawkins.

The athleticism on these two defenses is almost unmatched in college football, and the numbers show it. Alabama ranks fourth in the nation in total defense and fifth in scoring defense, while LSU ranks 15th in total defense and seventh in scoring defense. In terms of Football Outsiders' S&P+ statistics, Alabama ranks first in overall defense, first against the run and second against the pass; LSU is 20th overall, 13th against the run and 27th against the pass.

With LSU's offense in a season-long funk and Alabama's offense fading, one question lingers over all others for Saturday: Will either team score?

Believe it or not, there are some advantages to be found for both offenses in this game. One just needs to know where to look.



When LSU Has the Ball


With Football Outsiders' S&P+ college football ratings system, every relevant play is broken down and analyzed according to various situational statistics -- run versus pass, standard downs versus passing downs, first quarter versus fourth quarter, etc. -- and compared with what the expected output would be given the opponent at hand. In the "+" ratings, anything over 100 is above average, and anything below 100 is less than stellar. Using "+" ratings gives you a schedule-adjusted look at a team's strengths and weaknesses.

Taking "+" numbers into account, LSU might have a few opportunities against the Crimson Tide defense.

Keep running in the second half:

LSU was supposed to be a stout rushing team this year, and while it hasn't necessarily worked out that way with Charles Scott rushing for just 459 yards (4.5 per carry) in 2009, poor blocking has not necessarily been the culprit. LSU's offense ranks just 54th in rushing S&P+, but ranks 40th in line yards+ (also known as adjusted line yards, a measure of the ability of the offensive line). After the first quarter, in which their offensive line yards+ ranks just 79th, the Tigers improve, ranking 16th in the second quarter and 21st in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Alabama's defensive line yards+ regresses as the game advances, from second and ninth in the first and second quarters, to 42nd and 41st in the third and fourth quarters. If LSU can keep things close enough to avoid must-pass situations in the second half, the Tigers could see their rushing output improve rather significantly.

Be patient with the play calling:

Offenses succeed in one of two ways: through either efficiency or explosiveness (sometimes both). Football Outsiders has measures for both categories. Efficiency can be measured by success rate+ (SR+), while explosiveness is gauged by EqPts per play+ (PPP+). Alabama's is the best defense in the country in terms of PPP+, meaning nobody prevents big plays better. However, LSU has some potential when it comes to moving the ball efficiently. The Tigers' offensive SR+ has improved from 102.2 over the first month of the season, to 112.3 in the past month. On the flip side, two of Alabama's three worst games in terms of defensive SR+ came in the past two weeks, against South Carolina and Tennessee. Alabama is allowing teams to be a little more efficient with the ball, and LSU could take advantage of that.

Of course, the Tigers will have to be patient. Alabama's defensive speed and stellar defensive PPP+ mean the Tide do not give up big plays or quick scoring drives; to move the ball on Alabama takes good play calling, efficient execution and the ability to take 13-14 plays to move the ball downfield without making a drive-killing mistake. Take the 5-yard gains as they are given, and LSU may be able to move the ball effectively.

When Alabama Has the Ball


At first glance, Alabama matches up quite well with the LSU defense. The Tide do, after all, rank ninth in the country in offensive S&P+. However, trends tell a different story. Alabama's offensive S&P+ over its first four games was an outstanding 136.2, but it has fallen dramatically, to a pedestrian 106.1 in the last four games. The Tide's 425-yard performance against Arkansas in September was the last time they played at a level far above the expected output. Their passing game in particular has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Their passing S&P+ and PPP+ for the first four games were a dynamic 155.9 and 169.3, but in the last four games they have managed just an 82.2 and 79.2, respectively. Their running game has actually improved slightly in this time, but the lack of a passing game leaves them vulnerable to a Tigers defense that is iffy against the pass but tough against the run.

Look for the big play downfield:

If the Tide still hold an advantage over LSU in the passing game, however, it is because of pass protection. They are good at it, and LSU is weak against it. LSU ranks an astounding 112th in defensive sack rate+ (also known as adjusted sack rate), which puts unfair pressure on a solid secondary. Alabama's offensive line ranks 22nd in offensive sack rate+, a relative strength. With LSU struggling to make big plays on offense, Alabama could find victory simply by allowing a struggling Greg McElroy enough time to find one of his big-play threats downfield, be it Julio Jones or an explosive receiver like Marquis Maze.

Take advantage of weak pass rush:

Not surprisingly, thanks to the lack of a strong pass rush, LSU has seen multiple breakdowns this year in defensive passing downs (defined here). While the Tigers rank 10th overall in standard downs defensive S&P+, they are 43rd on passing downs. Alabama has struggled significantly on offensive passing downs in the past month (its passing downs S&P+ has fallen from 141.8 in the first four games to 85.5 in the last four), but if LSU fails to take full advantage of that weakness and lets Alabama off the hook a few times, an increased focus on the pass rush will open the door for UA's strong corps of running backs, led by Heisman candidate Mark Ingram to get more carries and take over the game.



Bill Connelly is a writer for Football Outsiders

Despite playing against two of the best defenses in the country, offensive opportunites exist for Alabama and LSU -- Bill Connelly, Football Outsiders - ESPN