Reno Gazette Journal: Week 9's only winner, Manos takes Stanford over Oregon

[clevfan]

November 5, 2009


Sports betting: Week 9's only winner, Manos takes Stanford over Oregon


Tulane didn't have enough to put even a field goal on the board against in-state opponent LSU. So despite being given 36 points, the Green Wave was unable to cover and Lee Sterling took his first loss of the season. He'll look to rebound quickly, with a pick today on the Miami(Ohio)-Temple game.

Gonzalez, who got no favors from Idaho last week after the Vandals eked out a win but failed to cover at La. Tech, also picked one of the three games on tap today. He likes Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan.

Manos was Week 9's only winner, rightly sniffing out a UConn let down that led to an outright Rutgers victory. This week, he takes Stanford over an Oregon team coming off a huge high after one of its biggest wins ever, over Southern Cal.

WEEK 10

When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday

The pick: Stanford +7

As situational setups go, you'd be hard pressed to find a better spot than this one for the Cardinal. I've previously discussed various aspects of how to handicap games (raw data, offensive efficiency ratings, technical analysis, personnel matchups, etc.) and this contest represents a prime example of a situational play.

Oregon enters this contest coming off one of the biggest wins in school history. The Ducks destroyed Southern Cal last week and may have finally broken the Trojans' stranglehold on the Pac-10 title. Oregon racked up 600-plus yards and looking faster and more athletic than their heralded visitors. Now, off that uplifting, ego-boosting win, the Ducks must travel to face a conference opponent who is coming off a bye.

This is no normal setup and the Ducks will be in for a difficult task. Stanford is well-coached and has had two weeks to prepare for Oregon's spread offense. The Cardinal are well balanced on offense (206 rushing ypg, 230 passing ypg) and own the type of power running back in Toby Gerhart that can keep the potent Oregon offense on the sidelines for extended stretches. Stanford has covered 10 straight home games, is 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 as a home dog, and couldn't find itself in a more positive situation. The outright upset would not surprise at all and we'll grab the generous points.

This line is moving up and +7.5 will most likely pop up later in the week as the general betting public will remember last week's crushing win over USC and label the Ducks "a sure thing." I'd wait to wager and then grab the extra line value.

James Manos


When: 4:30 p.m. today

The pick: No. Illinois -20.5

Northern Illinois won this match up with Eastern Michigan last season 37-0. The Huskies have won seven of the last eight meetings between the two respected universities. This game will be a huge mismatch from the first whistle, when the Huskies have the ball.

Northern Illinois has the best rushing team in the conference. The Huskies are averaging 225 yards rushing at home and will be taking on the worst run defense in the country. Over the last three games the Eagles are surrendering a disastrous 302 rushing yards per game. The Eagles have issues at the quarterback position after an injury to starter Andy Schmidt. Kyle McMahon has played well in place of Schmidt but is still very inconsistent and alternates with Alex Gillett.

The Eagles have been decent over the last three games running the ball for 141 yards per contest. The Huskies defense has been great over the last three games by allowing a miniscule 59 yards rushing per game. Northern Illinois will get out to an early lead and really wear on the Eagles soft defense in the second half. Take the Huskies.

Jorge Gonzalez




Additional Facts
Week 9 standings
Lee Sterling 8-1
Jorge Gonzalez 6-2-1
James Manos 6-3