Inside Edge: Martinez vs. Pettitte

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Focusing on Martinez-Pettitte matchup

Special to ESPN.com

THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY

1. Pedro vs. Pettitte
With the World Series on the line, two veterans take the mound in what could be the final starts of their careers. Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez had different fates in their first appearances in the Series despite similar outings. Pettitte allowed four runs through six innings, good enough for the win in Game 3; Martinez allowed three runs over six innings but picked up the Game 2 loss.

Here's an inside look at how they have been throwing lately:

World Series Game 6 pitcher comparison (past 6 starts)
MARTINEZ PETTITTE
Avg. fastball velocity 88.3 87.8
Martinez: Best off-speed pitch Changeup -- just 36 percent located in the zone, but batters chased 51 percent of the time

Pedro (44 percent miss rate) Slider -- opponents are 1-fo7 with 8 strikeouts against it

Pedro Potential weakness Big curveball -- opponents slugging .462 against it, including a Hideki Matsui home run

Pettitte Fatigue -- with his pitch count above 80, opponents are slugging .619 (.375 SLG through 80 pitches)

Pedro: Best hitter matchup Jorge Posada is a career 15-for-72 (.183) against Martinez with 34 strikeouts; didn't face him in Game 2

Pettitte Ryan Howard is a career 1-fo2 (.083) vs. Pettitte (regular season/postseason combined) and struck out twice in Game 3


In his last previous start, Pettitte struggled with his off-speed command (17 percent in-zone percentage). That forced him to throw fastballs 78 percent of the time; the Phillies hit two home runs and a double off Pettitte's heaters.


2. Is Utley's stellar series hurting Howard?
Chase Utley has a record-tying five home runs in the 2009 World Series, but the batter hitting behind him in the Phillies' lineup is struggling. Ryan Howard had two homers and a .355 batting average in the National League playoff rounds, but he's hitting just .158 with 12 strikeouts in 19 World Series at-bats.

In the first two postseason series, Howard came to the plate with runners on base 54 percent of the time. However, with Utley treating the World Series like a home run derby and clearing the table in front of him, runners have been on for only eight of Howard's 21 plate appearances (38 percent) against New York. Opponents have pitched him differently when the bases are empty, and the Phillies slugger has not handled it well:

Howard (2009 postseason)
Bases empty Runners on
OPS .630 1.282
In-zone pct. 40.6 47.7
Chase pct. 35.4 16.1


Howard might have an opportunity to turn things around Wednesday against Yankees starter Andy Pettitte and the Yankees' bullpen. Unlike CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, Pettitte has served Howard a heavy dose of fastballs so far:

Yankees pitchers vs. Howard (World Series)
Pitcher Fastball pct. Curveball pct. Slider pct.
Andy Pettitte 90.9 0.0 9.1
CC Sabathia 38.5 11.5 50.0
A.J. Burnett 33.3 37.0 29.6
Relievers 71.4 10.7 17.9



3. Pitchers neutralizing Teixeira on his favorite counts
Mark Teixeira, the No. 3 hitter in the Yankees' lineup, is batting only .172 (10-for-58) this postseason. Although he has hit two doubles and two home runs, Teixeira's batting average is way off his .292 mark for the regular season. Playoff opponents have denied him opportunities to hit in his favorite situation: a one-strike count.

The first baseman ranks among the league's best hitters on one-strike counts. Teixeira batted .402 with one strike against him in the regular season (.331 league average). Ryan Howard is the only player in the World Series who had a higher average (.406) in that situation. Outside of one-strike counts, Teixeira turns into just another guy at the plate. He hit .241 on all other counts, slightly better than the .236 league average.

Teixeira's one-strike prowess has not diminished. He's hitting .462 (6-fo3) with one strike in the postseason, but pitchers are giving him a lot fewer pitches to hit. Opponents are starting him off with balls, then trying to get him to chase something outside the zone after his first strike:

In-zone percentage to Teixeira
Regular season Postseason
First pitch 49.5 41.8
With one strike 48.3 39.1


In Game 2 of the World Series, Pedro Martinez located just two of his 12 pitches to Teixeira in the zone. In Teixeira's first at-bat, Pedro got a fastball across for strike one and went to work above and below the zone to get him to pop out on a chased high heater. The next time Teixeira was up, Martinez made the mistake of catching the outer edge of the plate with a 1-0 fastball that Teixeira belted over the right-field fence. In the final at-bat, Martinez started him 2-0 and got Teixeira to chase the next three pitches for a swinging strikeout.

ESPN.com - Focusing on Martinez-Pettitte matchup

[GGZOLA]

nice stats and the winner is??? lean yanks

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Gonna be a good one I think GGZOLA

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Six key matchups for Game 6
Buster Olney
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

Six key matchups to watch in Game 6:


1.Chase Utley versus the Yankees' adjustments: The Phillies' second baseman is not missing any fastballs; he is hammering everything thrown in the inner half of the strike zone. And with the benefit of a day off, the Yankees presumably will adjust significantly how they pitch to him. First and foremost, they probably will look for ways to make him uncomfortable in the box, perhaps busting fastballs down and in (although Utley famously would rather get hit by pitches than give ground in the batter's box). Secondly, Utley probably will see a steady diet of breaking balls, and if Andy Pettitte or any other Yankees pitcher winds up walking him -- and instead winds up having to face the slumping Ryan Howard -- that's an alternative he'll likely be comfortable with.


2.Shane Victorino versus his finger pain: Victorino is a tough guy who will try to play with a swollen index finger; he'll want to play. But Fernando Vina, my colleague on "Baseball Tonight," pointed out how important that particular finger is to a hitter -- it'll be the top finger on his top hand as he bats right-handed against Pettitte. You can bet that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, who knows hitting, will assess whether Victorino's hand is functional enough. The guess here is Victorino will play, and if he doesn't, Ben Francisco will be in center and Raul Ibanez will be in left, and the Phillies' late-inning defense will be diminished. Victorino may have to sit out, Marc Topkin writes.



3.Pettitte versus his command: Pettitte was fully rested yet struggled early in Game 3 to throw the ball where he wanted to throw it. Pettitte later figured it out and managed to grind through six innings. But Wednesday night, because Pettitte is pitching on short rest, Yankees manager Joe Girardi may not feel he has the luxury of waiting to see whether the lefty can figure it out; if Pettitte struggles early in the game, Girardi will at least have to consider that fatigue is a factor. Pettitte's command early in the game will dictate how long he can go.


4.Pedro Martinez versus the chill: Older pitchers will tell you that pitching in warmer weather definitely helps them stay loose and throw with more velocity, and Wednesday night, Martinez -- he of that surgically repaired shoulder -- will be working in the coldest temperatures he has seen in years. It won't be anything unbearable -- the forecast is for temperatures in the mid-40s -- but as Mets fans know from his tenure with that team, Martinez might need an inning or two to reach his peak velocity. He might be at his most vulnerable early in the game.


5.Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard versus the soft stuff: The two sluggers will be named in the top five of league MVP ballots later this month, and both are fully capable of generating game-changing power in Game 6. But both are struggling and being pitched to in the same way, with breaking balls and changeups down in the zone. Both might look for fastballs early in ball-strike counts to do damage because they have been particularly vulnerable later in counts.


6.Girardi versus the urge to pick up the red phone: There is only one sure pitcher in this series going forward: Mariano Rivera. If the Yankees have a lead in Game 6, how soon will Girardi go to him? If the Yankees have a one-run lead, would he go to him for the last six outs -- knowing that if they surrender the lead, Rivera might be compromised for Game 7? If they have a three-run lead in the seventh inning, would Girardi go to him for seven outs? We'll see. One note on Rivera: He's thrown only 13 pitches since Thursday night. Girardi is ready to go to Rivera in Game 6, writes Andy McCarron. Girardi is among those who have the most to lose as this World Series moves forward, writes Joel Sherman.


World Series chatter

David Wells thinks the Yankees should knock Chase Utley on his butt. Teixeira took extra batting practice, writes Sean Brennan. A-Rod needs Teixeira's help, writes Ian O'Connor. Robinson Cano feels he's been having some bad luck.

For both teams, it'll be age before beauty, writes Phil Sheridan. Pettitte will be on the spot on short rest, writes Tyler Kepner. Short rest for pitchers was once routine in the World Series, writes Bob Ford.

With the Yankees one win away and so much conversation about the pitching rotation, they'd better win, for Girardi's sake, writes Mike Lupica. Girardi has put the Yankees in a bad position, writes Wallace Matthews. Martinez has kept everybody entertained, writes Arthur Staple. He says he's blessed to be in the World Series again, writes David Murphy.

Cole Hamels and Brett Myers say they didn't have a dustup, writes Andy Martino. Hamels likely will get the ball if there is a Game 7, writes Jim Salisbury. He has replaced Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb on the Philly hot seat, writes John Gonzalez. Sam Donnellon is sick of all the mound meetings.

Derek Jeter slows down only for traffic, writes Mike Vaccaro. Bobby Richardson remembers being named MVP in a series the Yankees lost, Jack Curry writes.