Week 10 BALLS Index: Texas pulling away / Chad Millman

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Week 10 BALLS Index: Texas pulling away
Chad Millman

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 | Print Entry


Finally, Florida had a big game and played the way it was supposed to have played all season. The spread against Georgia on Saturday was 16, and the BCS No. 1 Gators were rewarded for their impressive performance and 41-17 win by having their BALLS Index numbers, which Sal from MadduxSports.com sent me Monday night, go up a smidge.



But here's the thing (and this is an argument a lot of football fans, whether they bet or not, are making right now): By winning big, 41-14, over Oklahoma State, in a way that was more impressive than Florida's W over Georgia, Texas should be atop the BCS standings. It's definitely why the Horns continue their surprising run atop the BALLS Index.



While Texas QB Colt McCoy hasn't been nearly the sharpshooter he was last season, he's been on a streak lately that should silence any Tim-Tebow-for-Heisman talk. In his past three games, against the toughest part of the Horns' schedule, McCoy completed nearly 70 percent of his passes while throwing five touchdowns and just two picks. Meanwhile, his team put away Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State with relative ease, winning by an average of more than 21 points per game. Maybe the Big 12 is down this season, but Texas can't help that; it can only play the games on the sked. And in those games, the Horns have not only won; they haven't even had to sweat.



With four weeks left in the season, and games against UCF, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M, the Horns have a good shot at not only winning the BCS championship, which is a swell prize, but also swiping the BALLS Index title from the one team everyone thought had it locked up in September, the Gators.



I know fans are cheering on 6th Street at the notion of that.



As a reminder, the BALLS Index is our running tab for the best average line for the length of the season. What's that mean? Over the course of the season, Florida has been favored by 37.5 points over Troy, 27.5 over Tennessee, 21.5 over Kentucky, 8.5 over LSU, 23.5 over Arkansas, 23.5 over Mississippi State, 16 over Georgia and, this week, 33 over Vandy. Add those numbers together and divide by eight, and you get 24, the Gators' average line for the length of the season. It's elementary, my dear bettors. And with Sal's help, we are tracking this number for every Football Bowl Subdivision team.



We run the BALLS Index rankings on Tuesdays and measure them in two ways. The first looks at the top 10 teams in the index for this current season. The second compares how Florida stacks up against the best BALLS for AP preseason No. 1 teams from the past 28 years (because that's how far back Sal's point-spread database goes). Sorry, Gators, your chance at our mythical title is slipping away.



Top 10
Rank Team Avg. line Last week This week's opponent
1 Texas 25.11 1 Central Florida (35.5)
2 Florida 23.88 2 Vanderbilt (33)
3 Boise St. 19.63 3 Louisiana Tech (21)
4 USC 17.39 4 Arizona St. (11)
5 Alabama 17.11 5 LSU (9.5)
6 TCU. 16.75 8 San Diego St. (25)
7 Penn St. 16.33 6 Ohio St. (3.5)
8 Ohio St. 15.45 7 Penn St. (+3.5)
9 Oklahoma 14.31 9 Nebraska (5.5)
10 Utah 13.33 NR New Mexico (28.5)


Florida against previous AP preseason No. 1 teams
Team Avg. line Finish
2009 Florida 23.88 Currently No. 1
1996 Nebraska 29.19 6th
1983 Nebraska 28.17 2nd
1986 Oklahoma 26.38 3rd
2000 Nebraska 24.75 8th
1993 Florida State 24.73 Won national title
2005 USC 24.65 2nd
1998 Ohio State 24.38 2nd
2001 Florida 24.21 3rd