FBO: The Ravens can soar again

[stevo]

FBO: The Ravens can soar again
With improved third-down performance and emerging Ray Rice, don't count them out

By Vince Verhei
Football Outsiders


In Any Given Sunday, Football Outsiders examines the most surprising result of each NFL weekend and where the two teams involved can go from here. The week edition focuses on the 3-0, then 3-3 Baltimore Ravens dismantling the 6-0 Denver Broncos -- and what that means for the AFC playoff picture in the second half of the season.



The Football Outsiders game projection system thought Denver would beat Baltimore last Sunday. The Vegas casinos disagreed, making Baltimore two-point favorites. But nobody -- not us, not the oddsmakers, not even the hardcore Baltimore fans -- saw the undefeated Broncos suffering a 30-7 beatdown. The game served to remind everyone that the Ravens, despite their recent three-game losing streak, are still a top Super Bowl contender.



And on the other side, we may now know a key weakness for the previously-undefeated Broncos.




The differences between the teams can be seen in DVOA, Football Outsiders' exclusive statistic that evaluates every play of the season and adjusts for quality of opposition, field position, down-and-distance, and other factors. (Click here for further explanation.) Going into the game, the Broncos had a DVOA of 34.7%, higher than Baltimore's 27.9%. While Baltimore had the stronger offense (25.2% to Denver's 17.1%), Denver had the much more powerful defense (-20.4% to -5.9%).



With 30 points scored, it seems like the Ravens' offense overwhelmed that elite defense. However, through three quarters the Ravens had only three field goals and a kickoff return for a touchdown. The Ravens' offense didn't score a touchdown until they added two in the fourth quarter. While Baltimore didn't have any highlight reel plays -- their longest gain from scrimmage was just 21 yards -- they were exceptional on third downs, converting 11 of 18 opportunities, including six of their last seven tries. For the game, Baltimore's offensive DVOA was 161.1% on third down. Before the game, their DVOA on third down ranked just 13th in the NFL. After the game, they were eighth. Unless the third-down output matches what we saw Sunday instead of what we saw in the first seven weeks, Baltimore will need to get more big plays to produce points in the future.



That being said, this is certainly one of the AFC's top teams. It may be a surprising statement about a team that just came off a three-game slide, but those losses came by narrow margins to three teams with a combined record of 17-5; Baltimore is 11 points away from being undefeated. The Ravens' lowest DVOA for any game this year was 0.9% -- in the 33-31 loss to the Vikings. When they play well, they play VERY well, with DVOA above 40 percent in three of their wins, peaking with an 81.1% against Denver.



For the season, DVOA ranks Baltimore third in the AFC, behind only New England and Indianapolis. Pittsburgh figures to improve now that Troy Polamalu has returned, but Baltimore still has a strong shot at a division title and a first-round bye. Isn't it about time Ray Rice started to get MVP consideration? His conventional statistics are impressive enough -- he's second in the league in yards from scrimmage per game -- but he looks even better in FO's advanced statistics, which more accurately measure his impact on wins and losses.



He leads all running backs in rushing DVOA and is fourth among running backs in receiving DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DVOA's cousin that measures the total value of all plays instead of the average value per play). He leads the team in both rushing and receptions.



Turning to the previously-undefeated Broncos now: going into the game, Denver's passing offense ranked fifth in DVOA and seemed ready to exploit Baltimore's 14th-ranked passing defense. Instead, the Ravens held Denver to only 152 yards on 37 pass attempts, with a couple of sacks thrown in for good measure. They did this by surrendering short completions, but taking away anything downfield; Denver averaged just 6.6 yards per completion on Sunday. It's not unusual for the Broncos to throw so many short passes, but their receivers are usually able to make plays with the ball in their hands. The Broncos rank fourth in the league with 6.0 yards after catch per reception -- and 55 percent of their receiving yards this year have come after the catch. Against the Ravens, though, they averaged only 4.2 YAC per reception.



Unable to break tackles, the Broncos ended up with a lot of useless catches. At Football Outsiders, we consider plays to be successful if they gain 40 percent of yards needed on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. By that measure, nine of Denver's 23 catches (nearly 40 percent) were failures. That's a particularly high figure, but Denver normally sees a lot of failed completions; they've thrown 41 on the year, ninth-most in the league.



The most surprising part of this performance is that it came against a defense that usually gives up bundles of YAC. The Baltimore defense allows 5.8 YAC per reception, 27th in the league.



Denver's rushing attack is just 18th in DVOA. The Broncos' offense relies on their passing game, and their passing game relies on plenty of yards after catch. If your secondary and linebackers can make tackles, then your team can beat the Broncos.



Vince Verhei is an author of Football Outsiders.

NFL - Football Outsiders - If the Baltimore Ravens can produce on third down, consider them a Super Bowl contender - ESPN

[Don King's Barber]

IMO they're too pass-happy with their play-calling...They have a solid oline and 3 solid backs, 2 of whom are very powerful and can wear down a defense...And running more keeps their shaky CBs off the field...