Online Bettors Make Corzine-Christie Race Too Close to Call

[clevfan]

Online Bettors Make Corzine-Christie Race Too Close to Call

By Jonathan D. Salant

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The latest polls show the New Jersey gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican nominee Christopher Christie too close to call. Online bettors agree.

Bets that Christie, a former U.S. attorney, would win traded at 50 yesterday on Dublin-based Intrade, meaning that the online exchange puts his chances of emerging the victor in today’s election at 50 percent. Bets on the chances of Corzine getting a new four-year term traded at 48. Independent Christopher Daggett was given a 1 percent chance of winning.

The trades followed three polls showing a statistical tie between Christie, 47, and Corzine, 62. A Hamden, Connecticut- based Quinnipiac University poll showed Christie ahead 42 percent to 40 percent with 12 percent for Daggett. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Polls by Madison, New Jersey-based Fairleigh Dickinson University and Monmouth University both put Corzine in the lead, 43 percent to 41 percent, over Christie, with Daggett at 8 percent. The Fairleigh Dickinson poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, the figure for the Monmouth survey was 3.7 percentage points.

“Corzine seems to be a very unpopular governor but Christie hasn’t been convincing in his campaign,” said Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s exchange operations manager.

Virginia’s Race

In Virginia’s gubernatorial election today, Intrade bettors gave Republican Bob McDonnell, 54, a 99 percent chance of winning and ending the Democrats’ eight-year hold on the state’s executive office. McDonnell, the former state attorney general, is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell an 11 percentage point lead over Deeds, 55 percent to 44 percent.

In a U.S. House race in upstate New York, Intrade bettors gave Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman a 70 percent chance of winning today’s special election for a successor to Republican John McHugh, who became secretary of the Army. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens.

A Loudonville, New York-based Siena College survey released yesterday gave Hoffman a 5 percentage point lead over Owens, 41 percent to 36 percent. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Outside Spending

Outside groups have outspent the candidates in the race, pumping $3 million into the district.

As an example of those efforts, Federal Election Commission reports released yesterday showed that 1199SEIU, a New York health care affiliate of the Service Employees International Union, spent $33,350 on radio and television ads on behalf of Owens. The anti-abortion Life and Liberty PAC spent $84,107 on mail and phone calls in support of Hoffman, according to the FEC.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 67, had a 95 percent chance of winning a third term in today’s election, according to Intrade. Bloomberg, running as the Republican nominee, led New York City Comptroller William Thompson, 56, the Democratic challenger, by 50 percent to 38 percent in a Quinnipiac poll out yesterday.

Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

Last Updated: November 3, 2009 00:00 EST

[Don King's Barber]

Does Corzine losing effect the lawsuit with NJ suing the fed govt??? Anyone Know? Thanks

[drunkguy]

just wish this election would be over so I can stop getting 10 phone calls and 100 pieces of junk mail per day about these two bozos

[clevfan]

HA HA, drunkguy, ain't that the truth...u should here some of the robocalls i am getting about letting casinos in ohio....did u know that casinos bring prostitution and crime, lol....this idiot groups have got to go