Betting underdogs bite back in NFL

[clevfan]

Mon, Nov. 2, 2009


Betting underdogs bite back in NFL


By Bill Ordine
Philly Inquirer Staff Writer

Balance was restored to the NFL betting world as the underdogs made a comeback yesterday. The previous Sunday was a cover-fest for the favorites, which usually means that the betting public is having a field day and the bookmakers are getting killed.

Sure enough, one major Las Vegas book confirmed it got bloodied Oct. 25. That same day, closer to home at Dover Downs Hotel & Casino in Delaware, one bettor cashed in two 10-team parlay tickets, one for $100 and another for $20, that paid $96,000. That can only happen when the favorites are pounding the 'dogs.

But yesterday was a different story.

The Eagles were just one of the underdogs who not only beat the spread but also won outright (Philly was a 3-point underdog to the visiting Giants and prevailed, 40-17).

In the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games, seven underdogs beat the spread and five were outright winners.

Along with the Eagles, the other underdogs that won outright were the Dolphins (over the Jets), Panthers (over the Cardinals), Vikings (over the Packers), and Rams (over the Lions).

However, in the intermediate term, those type of surprising results can work out to the bookmakers' advantage because those outcomes create doubt in the bettors' minds about the reliability of evaluating teams' past performances.

Money moved right. In the context of past performance and the standings, the oddsmakers and public betting pressure created two lines for yesterday's games that may have raised eyebrows - but turned out to be prescient.

In the first one, the Ravens (3-3 before yesterday) initially were set as 31/2-point favorites over the visiting but undefeated Broncos. By yesterday, the Ravens had been bet upward to 41/2, 5-point favorites. Sure enough, Baltimore handed Denver its first loss and covered, 30-7.

The other interesting line had the Titans-Jaguars as a opening pick-'em (neither team was getting points) and the betting moved the Titans to 3-point favorites by kickoff. While Jacksonville had been erratic in putting together a 3-3 record going into yesterday, Tennessee was 0-6. However, after a bye, the Titans rallied for their first win and covered, 30-13.

[stevo]

Along with the Eagles, the other underdogs that won outright were the Dolphins (over the Jets), Panthers (over the Cardinals), Vikings (over the Packers), and Rams (over the Lions).


Freakin Panthers ran all over my Cards. I was expecting covers etc with the lines but I thought Cards could at least beat em straight up

[Rogthedodger]

Told ya on Friday we should bet the sheet dogs, stevo!

[stevo]

Yup Rog.

I brought the Raiders up 3 times to bet and just couldnt pull that one.

Easy cover........LOL