Week 7 NFL point spread moves / Millman.

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Week 7 NFL point spread moves

Chad Millman

Friday, October 23, 2009 | Print Entry


To help me break down the NFL's biggest line moves this week, I called Dave Tuley. It's not because he's from the Chicago 'burbs -- like me. Or because, like me, his passion for the Bears, Bulls and Cubs when he was growing up bordered on illness (he named his kids Jordyn, Peyton and Maddux).



It's because he covers the Vegas world for the Daily Racing Form and runs the gambling info site ViewFromVegas.com. The guy has actually won an award for a story about how the books reacted to Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle accident a few years ago. An award for writing about gambling? That doesn't happen often. No one's ever given me anything.



Dave also happens to play a bit himself, finishing second in the Leroy's contest last year and 14th in the Hilton handicapping game.



So let's see what wisdom he has to share about this week's biggest NFL point spread moves.




Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line moves: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point fave, currently a 5.5-point fave
What that means: It can't mean the wise guys are channeling the squares and playing the public team. They must have something up their sleeves.



Tuley says: "I always go down to the Hilton Sunday and they had this opening at four. And when I saw a number of other books open at 4.5, I posted this as a play of the week on the Vikes plus-4.5. It's odd, because this is wise guy money pushing it up right now. Maybe they are doing that because they want to get it to six so they can then start playing the other side really big. Oddsmakers know the public is going to come in on the Steelers no matter what. And wise guys know the Steelers are only 1-5 against the spread."




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Matchup: Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Line moves: Bengals opened as three-point faves, currently 1.5-point faves
What that means: Wise guys are playing the three, which is the strongest key number in the NFL.



Tuley says: "The Bears have a lot of respect out there and the Bengals are seen as being inconsistent. That was clear by opening at three and coming down right away. There is no way this number is going to go higher than three, so the wise guys can play the three and if it goes back up, buy it back. But the public has not been on the Bengals at all this season. The money came in on the Ravens a few weeks ago and last week all the money came in on the Texans."




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Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Line moves: Dallas opened as a three-point fave, currently favored by four
What that means: Wise guys could be looking to buy back, like with the Vikes-Steelers.



Tuley says: "I think the Falcons are the right side on this. The Cowboys haven't shown much and are just 2-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Falcons have shown that last year wasn't a fluke. They are 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Still, most of the bookmakers I spoke to said this game is going to get equal action because Dallas is such a public team, so it's not going to steam too much one way or the other. I bet this game will settle at 3.5."




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Matchup: New York Jets at Oakland Raiders
Line moves: The Jets opened as 7.5-point faves, currently six-point faves
What that means: The wise guys don't bet based on one week's performance. They see something in these teams that favors the Raiders.



Tuley says: "Jets are 3-3 against the spread this season. They covered the first three and dropped the last three. Either the league has figured them out or they have come crashing down to earth. The loss to the Bills really proved that. The Jets were 10-point favorites. So this move is not based on last week but the past three weeks. It is just a bet against the Jets with a little more confidence in the Raiders, plus them being at home. Personally, I always love making the case for a home 'dog, but I still can't make the case for the Raiders."




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Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns
Line moves: Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point fave, currently a nine-point fave
What that means: Don't be fooled by the bounce, it's not as bad for the Browns as you think.



Tuley says: "That game moved on air. Meaning there wasn't a lot of volume on the Packers that made bookmakers change that number. The Browns announced a lot of their players have the flu and so the number shot up. Once you go past seven as a bookmaker, it doesn't take much to get to eight or nine. They are just protecting themselves because of the Browns' illnesses. They want to balance it somewhat because they will be getting a lot of money on the Packers come Sunday."

Week 7 NFL point spread moves - ESPN

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Bump for gameday

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Originally Posted by stevo

Tuley says: "I think the Falcons are the right side on this. The Cowboys haven't shown much and are just 2-3 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Falcons have shown that last year wasn't a fluke. They are 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Still, most of the bookmakers I spoke to said this game is going to get equal action because Dallas is such a public team, so it's not going to steam too much one way or the other. I bet this game will settle at 3.5."



Not much difference but didnt go way I thought.

5's