Tuesday's MW Mess Hall Plays ( MLB / WNBA, etc..)

[luke m.]

9/22/2009 MLB San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 PM ET San Francisco Giants -109 Detail 4*
9/22/2009 MLB New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels 10:05 PM ET Los Angeles Angels -116 Detail 4*
9/26/2009 NCAAF Arkansas at Alabama 3:30 PM ET Alabama -15.5 Detail 6*
9/26/2009 NCAAF Arizona at Oregon St. 7:35 PM ET Oregon St. 1 Detail 4*
9/26/2009 NCAAF Notre Dame at Purdue 8:00 PM ET Purdue 7.5 Detail 4*


On Monday we were set to make a 4* play with these Giants over Doug Davis until the Diamondbacks tweaked their rotation to go with Billy Buckner instead. Now we do get the Arizona lefty back on the mound, and we can start this by reloading from yesterday’s preview -

So why do we get the better team, better starter and better bullpen in this range? Largely because of the 3.91 that Doug Davis shows for the full season, but take that with a grain of salt. First note that there are 100 pitchers that have worked at least 120 innings so far, and Davis rates dead last in Quality of Batters Faced (as always, we use “On Base + Slugging” as our barometer). If we simply factor him against a league average schedule he becomes a below average pitcher. At 184 innings he also does not have a whole lot left in the tank, with an 0-3/5.88 over his last six starts. But perhaps best of all here is that the Giants are loaded with hitters that read him well.

If we use yesterday’s starting lineup as the guide, those San Francisco hitters are a combined 63-183 lifetime against Davis, a .344 clip that includes seven home runs. Things like the 17-37 from Freddy Sanchez, with five doubles and a home run, are not going to show in the Davis past history vs. the Giant uniforms. And we might even see an upgrade of those numbers if they put Edgar Renteria back on the field tonight, with his 8-18 with two homers against Davis likely getting him a nod. That helps to make the overall ERA of Davis a misleading tag, and helps us to the value that we get for this setting.

Now the San Francisco confidence has had a boost from last night’s win, which has the Giants back to within four games of Colorado in the Wild Card race, and in Matt Cain they bring a starter that has had a great deal of success against this offense. Cain has held the D’Backs to a 2.63 over 27.1 innings the past two seasons, and tonight’s projected starting lineup is just 17-86 lifetime against him, with more strikeouts than hits. With no fatigue ratings for any of the key bullpen arms, the latter stages are in good hands as well.

They are pricing the red-shot Angels and Ervin Santana at less than the home field advantage vs. the suddenly slumping Yankees and Chad Gaudin. When we do the particulars of both this pitching matchup and what the home field is worth it tells us that they have clearly set the wrong line.

The Angels have dominated the Yankees to a 9-1 tune in Anaheim the past two seasons, out-scoring them in those games by a collective 30 runs, and it is nothing new – the Pin Stripes have not won a series on this field since 2004. It does not get any easier for them against Santana, who has not only rounded into solid form after those early-season health issues, but posts as good of head-to-head numbers against the Yankee hitters as anyone. We count Derek Jeter as the only one with positive numbers, and off the players with more than 10 at-bats against him it is most enlightening – Nick Swisher 4-25 with 12 strikeouts, Johnny Damond 4-20, Mark Teixeira 4-20, Aled Rodriguez 4-19, Robinson Cano 3-17 and Hideki Matsui 1-11. Meanwhile getting Joe Saunders to work into the 9th last night also sets the bullpen up well.

Chad Gaudin is simply who he is, a journeyman wearing his 6th uniform in seven Major League seasons, and an arm to eat innings until the Yankees get to the playoffs. In eight career starts against the Angels he has been rocked to a 5.53, and he has allowed more home runs against them than vs. any other team. In working for only the second time in 14 days his rhythm is an open question, and against a tough lineup that is still not out of the home field chase in the A.L. he is overmatched.

Bobby Petrino has a creative playbook and some outstanding skill people to cut much of it loose. That pretty much sums up the strengths of the Arkansas team right now. But those strengths make them appear to be “prettier” than they really are, and in a matchup in which their weaknesses get fully exposed this price is in a most fair range to step things up. The Razorbacks are a soft team at the line of scrimmage, and there is not a worse place to spend an autumn Saturday with that particular flaw this season than this field.

Petrino actually caught a break last fall in his Arkansas debut, getting to play both Alabama and Florida at home, instead of having to travel to face those powers. But even with that home advantage the Razorbacks were routed by a combined 87-21, and it was a complete mismatch in the trenches, were they were pushed around to he tune of 606 rushing yards at an abysmal 8.3 per carry. That is correct, 8.3. Alabama won 49-14 at Fayetteville and that was with Nick Saban not going out of his way at all, leading 35-7 at halftime, and only having his offense attempt 15 passes. And the Arkansas schedule only called for one road outing against a national power, a 52-10 drubbing at Texas. Note that they were 27-point underdogs in that trip to Austin, which creates a meaningful comparison to this week’s market price.

So fast forward to 2009 and what do we have in Petrino’s second season? Better QB play now that Ryan Mallett is on board, but that defense allowed 52 points and 530 yards at home vs. Georgia on Saturday, at 8.5 yards per play. That same Bulldog offense had only 565 yards combined vs. Oklahoma State and South Carolina in the first two games. This group has neither the experience nor the talent to withstand what they have to face here, an Alabama offense that brings superb balance, with at least 230 yards both running and passing in every game. And note that has come despite only getting limited contributions from Julio Jones, who will be back to full speed this week. We can pencil the Crimson Tide attack in for big numbers throughout, and because they are so careful with the ball (three turnovers in 218 snaps) they are not going to waste opportunities. The physical mismatch will also mean red zone success, after Georgia turned in a ratio of seven TD’s vs. only one FG on Saturday night.

What really pushes this over the top is that even the Arkansas strength can be negated. While Mallett is a fine talent with a great arm, this will be his first road outing as a Razorback, and as tough as road debuts usually are this defense can turn it into a house of horrors. At 6-7/248 he becomes an easy target for a tenacious Alabama pass rush, and his ability to be accurate deep down the field becomes a lesser trait here since he will not be afforded the time for those plays to develop. And the pounding never does let up – we genuinely believe that the Crimson Tide second-team defense would be one of the best 40 units in the country.

Nick Saban’s team has just been biding their time the last two weeks vs. lesser opponents, and he had most of those starters out particularly early vs. North Texas. That turns this into a 60-minute showcase, which means a scoreboard result similar to the 2008 meeting.

Since Mike Stoops took over at Arizona, the Wildcats are 27-36 with one bowl win. In that same period of time Mike Riley and his Beavers are 42-24 with four bowl wins. In four head-to-head games between these coaches Riley is 4-1, winning the five by a combined 36 points, or 7.2 per game. That includes a win at Tucson LY, when Arizona was held to 17 points and 297 yards, and a 31-16 win here two years ago, when Arizona managed 231 yards. So is there any wonder that we arrive on this one with the road team being priced this way?

There have not been any shifts in the programs anywhere to call for this line change; if anything this is by far the weakest Wildcat offense in recent years, and that is what sets this up so well. The past two campaigns they had veteran QB Willie Tuitama and some talented receivers running those Sonny Dykes schemes, yet they were shut down cold by an Oregon State defense that tactically handles those designs so well. Now Tuiatama is gone and has not been replaced, with neither Matt Scott nor Nick Foles able to take command at QB, and after Scott failed so miserably at Iowa last week it will be Foles getting the first snaps here. Autzen Stadium is not an easy place to make a debut, particularly against the variety of coverages that the Beavers will throw at him. But it does not all fall on the QB’s – having to replace Mike Thomas (74 catches LY) and Rob Gronkowski (as good as any TE in the land) in the same season is a load, especially since they counted on having the latter as late as last week. Gronkowski being ruled out for the season not only takes away the best offensive weapon, but is also a psychological blow for a team with a fragile psyche, a product of only having one winning season in five years under Stoops. And while those tallies of one offensive TD, eight first downs and 253 yards at Iowa were truly ugly, note that it was even worse than that – the lone score came on a 14-play 74-yard drive in the fourth quarter when the Hawkeyes were more than content to allow Arizona to grind the clock away.

Oregon State has the playmakers that Arizona lacks, and in this price range it is the ability to make a play or two that turns games. Jacquizz Rodgers will be back to full health, after gutting out the Cincinnati game in a lower gear, and he and brother James are forming one of the best sibling combinations that has ever been produced on the college gridirons. Jacquizz has rushed for 342 at 5.5 per carry so far, while catching 19 passes for 116 more, while James is at 106 rushing on 6.6 per attempt, and 19 catches for 233 yards. They were able to win in Tucson LY despite the fact that Jacquizz injured his shoulder on the second possession, and left after only four carries. Now that Arizona defense has to deal with both together for the first time, and we should also see the first appearance of Beaver QB Lyle Moevao this week, who also did not play in LY’s road win.

Oregon State has only been a Pac 10 home underdog four times in the last 4+ seasons, two of those games coming vs. Southern Cal, which were both SU Beaver upset wins. Arizona does not bring the overall quality to be in this role, and the once early-season State weakness, a young secondary that is talented but lacks experience, is negated here by an opponent that can not attack that area. That makes this an outstanding value for the home team.

We have had back-to-back sins of omission in not taking our customary stand against Charlie Weis the last two weeks, and the reasons we stayed out, and subsequent results, tell us much about what to expect here.

Two weeks ago we were not ready to back Michigan FR QB Tate Forcier in only his second career game, and first under real pressure. Yet the Wolverines rolled to 38 points and 430 yards. Last week we could not quite pull the trigger on Michigan State SO QB Kirk Cousins, who was playing on the road for the first time. Yet the Spartans rolled for 30 points and 459 yards. That speaks volumes about where the Fighting Irish still are as a program – Jimmy Clausen and the passing game are outstanding, but there are holes galore elsewhere. And on a night in which even that passing game now faces issues, Notre Dame is being priced in the wrong range.

The Irish will be without Michael Floyd this week, arguably as good as any WR in the nation, and if he regains full health a 1st round NFL draft choice in a few years. We do not see nearly the adjustment that should have been made for his absence, and we do not have to look any further than what happened without Floyd LY. He went down early vs. Navy on November 15th, and Clausen did not complete a pass longer than 14 yards the entire game, with two interceptions and no TD’s. The Irish survived 27-21. The following week was that embarrassing outright loss to Syracuse in South Bend, when Clausen could only manage 291 yards despite throwing 39 times, only two of them going for more than 14 yards. Then there was that awful drubbing vs. Southern Cal in the Coliseum, when Notre Dame did not manage a first down until the third quarter, and Clausen’s 22 passes produced only 41 yards, with two interceptions and no TD’s.

So take a look at those three games – 82 pass attempts, 343 yards, and twice as many INT’s as TD’s. That is an example of the kind of impact that Floyd’s absence can have going forward. That challenge is also made more difficult by the return of key SR CB Brandon King for Purdue this week, giving them a deep and savvy secondary that boasts all SR starters. And it is not as though a plodding Notre Dame ground game can pick up the slack.

Meanwhile the Purdue outright home loss to Northern Illinois helps to create major value here, but there is no cause for alarm. It was an awful set for the Boilermakers, who had out-played Oregon on the road into the late hours of the previous Saturday night, and they were both physically and emotionally flat. New head man Danny Hope was smart enough to see the potential look-ahead to this game and made a tactical decision to go through a tough week of practice, which back-fired. The coach himself acknowledged that, and his take on what should have been a fun and relaxing evening for this team cheering on they volleyball team on Friday night at the end of that grind speaks volumes - "We stopped in there for a little bit and I thought they would go in there whoopin and hollerin and show some school spirit. They just sat and watched for a little bit, kind of like they were mentally drained. I was concerned when I came out of there. Why didn't the guys get excited?"

There will not be any problem finding that emotion here, and that means a chance to spread this slow defense and make plays, keyed by Ralph Bolden, who has already rushed for 421 yards at 6.8 per pop while catching eight passes for 127 more, and with WR’s Keith Smith and Aaron Valentin already combining for 33 catches, and TE Kyle Adams contributing 10 more, the Fighting Irish will once again be on their heels throughout.

7:07 PM Baltimore +126 107 29.40% Toronto -134 257 70.60% View View
8:40 PM San Diego +212 248 30.88% Colorado -230 555 69.12% View View
7:08 PM Seattle +137 256 31.30% Tampa Bay -145 562 68.70% View View
8:11 PM Minnesota +146 395 48.83% Chi. White Sox -154 414 51.17% View View
8:05 PM Chi. Cubs +100 377 49.02% Milwaukee -108 392 50.98% View View
10:05 PM NY Yankees +109 416 49.94% LA Angels -117 417 50.06% View View
7:05 PM Cincinnati +103 407 51.00% Pittsburgh -111 391 49.00% View View
4:10 PM Philadelphia +141 468 52.64% Florida -149 421 47.36% View View
10:05 PM Texas +122 444 54.41% Oakland -130 372 45.59% View View
8:10 PM Boston +147 509 61.10% Kansas City -155 324 38.90% View View
7:10 PM Philadelphia +112 513 62.71% Florida -120 305 37.29% View View
7:10 PM Atlanta -165 556 66.67% NY Mets +157 278 33.33% View View
7:05 PM LA Dodgers -178 588 69.26% Washington +170 261 30.74% View View
7:05 PM Detroit -122 602 69.43% Cleveland +114 265 30.57% View View
8:05 PM St. Louis -149 582 71.06% Houston +141 237 28.94% View View
9:40 PM San Francisco -112 274 72.49% Arizona +104 104 27.51% View View
Totals (Over/Under)Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds
9:40 PM San Francisco 8.5 Arizona 166 30.68% 375 69.32% View View
8:11 PM Minnesota 9 Chi. White Sox 207 40.91% 299 59.09% View View
7:08 PM Seattle 8 Tampa Bay 218 41.84% 303 58.16% View View
8:40 PM San Diego 9 Colorado 212 42.15% 291 57.85% View View
8:05 PM St. Louis 9 Houston 215 43.09% 284 56.91% View View
7:05 PM Cincinnati 8 Pittsburgh 228 44.10% 289 55.90% View View
8:05 PM Chi. Cubs 9 Milwaukee 232 46.31% 269 53.69% View View
8:10 PM Boston 8 Kansas City 245 47.30% 273 52.70% View View
7:10 PM Philadelphia 9.5 Florida 247 47.59% 272 52.41% View View
7:05 PM LA Dodgers 9.5 Washington 243 48.02% 263 51.98% View View
4:10 PM Philadelphia 8 Florida 291 49.49% 297 50.51% View View
7:07 PM Baltimore 10 Toronto 107 51.69% 100 48.31% View View
10:05 PM NY Yankees 10.5 LA Angels 282 52.71% 253 47.29% View View
7:05 PM Detroit 8.5 Cleveland 282 53.31% 247 46.69% View View
7:10 PM Atlanta 8 NY Mets 278 55.49% 223 44.51% View View
10:05 PM Texas 8.5 Oakland 329 62.67% 196 37.33% View View

[KoolPappy]

BRAVES RL

[RaisinCapital]

under NYY/LAA ... easy one

Very very windy

[truckman]

Rockies -1.5 -105

[voiceofjanis]

what do you guys like for the afternoon baseball game?

[th3ory]

taking a shot with phils +135

[th3ory]

adding u9.5 nationals game -115

[luke m.]

where the fuck is the eastside austinite(fuzzy)?

[analyzer]

If at first you don't succeed:

Detroit/Clev OVER 8 1/2
Balt/Toronto OVER 10
Oakland - 1 1/2 +155

and just for fun:

#1: MLB Baseball (Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays)
Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays 9/22/2009 7:05 PM
Total Points OVER 11 +140 for Game
Hendrikson - L must Start B Tallet - L must Start

#2: MLB Baseball (Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians)
Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians 9/22/2009 7:05 PM
Total Points OVER 9½ +145 for Game
E Jackson - R must Start A Laffey - L must Start

#3: MLB Baseball (New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels)
New York Yankees 9/22/2009 10:05 PM
Spread -2½ +225 for Game
C Gaudin - R must Start E Santana - R must Start

#4: MLB Baseball (Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics)
Oakland Athletics 9/22/2009 10:05 PM
Spread -2½ +240 for Game
B McCarthy - L must Start T Cahill - R must Start

Risking 10.00 To Win 639.74 USD

[luke m.]

Dell Dude's Detroit Tigers should be money tonight! Right? Or I at least think so!

[RaisinCapital]

Jackson hit the wall, Luke ... over in Anaheim is the play. Number moving away from the action

[luke m.]

thanks raisin, but i will leave it to ex oakland Gaudin to get the win at the Angels tonight!

[th3ory]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

Jackson hit the wall, Luke ... over in Anaheim is the play. Number moving away from the action

i made a play on the under earlier, gunna stick with it

[RaisinCapital]

typo, thats my bad ... u10.5 in ANA ... Santa Anas are blowing big time. Should calm down by game time, but should be an easy under.

[RaisinCapital]

Gaudin does throw well against ANA, but Santana's breakin stuff is really on right now .. he's looked sharp.

[RaisinCapital]

Tomorrow is an early game in ANA. Winds blowing from NE, and thats dead center as it should be according to MLB rules. Should be blowing 20mph+ with very warm temperatures. That 9.5 should be 9

[luke m.]

raisin, how do you know the weather in anaheim when you live in oakland?

[RaisinCapital]

You must have heavy action tonight luke because your meds are making you forgetful.

Im not from Oakland ... I used to live in Bay area 8 years ago. I chose to switch from being a Dodgers fan to an A's fan during the worst possible year (1988).

I got tickets to LAA/BOS playoff over the weekend! Fukkin stoked.

[analyzer]

Well guys, I'm running cold the last couple days. I just added money on Oakland tonight. FADE AWAY>