Thursday Plays

[WhereYaMamiAt]

Not much to work with today...but like the atl/phi under 8...happ 3-0 on the road with a 1.67 era while vasquez hasnt allowed more then 2 runs at home in his last 6 starts. Both could go the distance....lets get it!

[stevo]

Sounds good WYMA.

Going to add some morning action with D'backs under 8.5. Last under I played on D'backs they had 4 errors by 4th inning and they scored like 20 runs combined.

So just a small start to day

[luke m.]

7/2/2009 MLB Houston Astros at San Diego Padres 3:35 PM ET under 7.5 Detail 6*
7/2/2009 MLB Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals 8:10 PM ET under 9 Detail 4*
7/2/2009 MLB Baltimore Orioles (HT) at LA Angels (HT) 10:05 PM ET under Detail 4*


The betting markets have not caught up on just how good the recent run by Kevin Correia has been. We believe that the current form of Wandy Rodriguez is misleading. So with Petco Park as the backdrop, some major offensive issues, and all key bullpen arms rested and ready, the runs are difficult to come by here.

To say that Correia has found a groove would be an understatement – a 4-1/2.41 over his last five starts does not fully measure how good he has been. In that span he has allowed only 18 hits and three walks in 33.2 innings, while striking out 29 batters, and you will be hard-pressed to find a WHIP of 0.62 in cycles of five starts or more. In one stretch he retired 56 of the 59 batters that he faced, and we can clearly see his confidence building – in each of his last two outings he has set a career high for strikeouts. Note that back before this streak began he checked the Astros on four hits and three walks at Houston earlier (two runs), and we can confidently call for that momentum to continue here against an Astro offense that did not have an extra base hit last night, and may be giving the afternoon off to Carlos Lee.

Meanwhile Rodriguez has come back to earth after a sizzling start, and there has been a definite reason for it – he has been tagged for 11 home runs in his last five starts. But we do not see a flaw in his stuff; in that span he has recorded nearly as many strikeouts (28) at hits allowed (30) over 29 innings, and that means that we get added value from those recent outings at a time when he is more likely to correct. And from a confidence standpoint note that the Astros won three of his last four starts, including games in which he held the Cubs and Twins both to a single run over seven full innings. Home runs are not much of an issue at this venue, especially with problems for Adrian Gonzalez, the only Padre with real punch, who may be given the day off. Gonzalez has gone 3-18 with no home runs and one rbi in the last two series, and after suffering a slight knee sprain on Tuesday we may not seen him in the lineup against a tough left-hander. Even with Gonzalez playing there just is not much here – the Padres have been held to one run or none 15 times already, and are dead last in the Majors in runs scored and batting average.

The Astros are on a 12-2-1 run to the Under in their last 15 games, a team clearly being read improperly in the marketplace. We add another to that list today.

When a team is held to six runs in a three-game series at home it would usually be called a slump, but for Kansas City that is simply all there is right now. And facing long-time nemesis Mark Buehrle, who will be going for his 20th win against the Royal franchise, does not change things. Buehrle is exactly the kind of pitcher that we like to use against this class of offense, since he will pound the strike zone (only 24 walks in 99.1 innings), and force the hitters to make things happen. The K. C. lineup particularly faces an up hill battle, with lead-off hitter David DeJesus an awful .153 against Buehrle through a significant sample of 59 at-bats, while also drawing only one walk, and when you can not set the table at the top of the order scoring opportunities are not easy to assimilate. And with Chicago only needing Matt Thornton from the bullpen last night, the key arms are rested and ready for the latter stages.

Meanwhile Bruce Chen brings us an ideal counter here. His lack of a reputation puts those full 9‘s out there, but his stuff is not bad at all right now. He did not allow a run in four of his last five AAA starts before getting the call-up, and he was sneaky good against Pittsburgh in Saturday’s loss. Chen was tagged for that three-run homer by Delwyn Young in the fourth inning, but 54 of the 76 pitches he threw found the strike zone, not walking a single batter while working 6.1 innings. The White Sox have not faced him since July of 2006, which gives him a major edge in the first couple of passes through the lineup, especially with Alexei Ramirez having to sit out, and the Kansas City bullpen is also well-set for the latter stages.

The play here should not come as a surprise, although the path may be. We have cashed tickets behind Jeremy Guthrie in each of his last two outings, noting how under-rated he is because of the brutal schedule that has been faced, and our idea to back John Lackey at the 6* level in his last outing was also dead-on, as he really was the Lackey of old in a dominating performance at Arizona, not allowing a single earned run over seven innings, with more strikeouts than Hits + walks combined. But with some bullpen issues here that leave us uncomfortable for the latter stages (like Oriole closer George Sherrill off of back-to-back nights and 54 pitches), we will focus on the starters for the early stages here.

Because of how strong the A.L. East is (the other four teams in the group are a collective 43 games over .500 right now), Guthrie has to fight it out against some difficult competition, and of the 105 pitchers that have worked at least 70 innings this season his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #3. The Angels are no slouches at the plate, of course, but the double-whammy for Guthrie in division play is not just the tough competition, but also that those solid lineups have seen him often, and know his stuff well. Now he faces a team that lacks some of that experience. Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins and Gary Matthews Jr. are the only Angels with more than six career at-bats against Guthrie, and are a collective 5-41, with only three rbi’s.

Meanwhile Lackey’s 2-3/5.06 is what the pitching forms are forced to show, but those numbers have no correlation with what we can expect tonight. Over his last three starts it has been a 2.86, with 24 strikeouts in 22 innings, and like Guthrie he brings particular command of the lineup that he will face tonight – of the projected Oriole starters Aubrey Huff, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Gregg Zaun, Nick Markakis and Ty Winnington are the only ones with more than six at-bats against him, and they have been held to a feeble .200 (23-115), without a single home run.

10:05 PM Baltimore +140 323 25.27% LA Angels -148 955 74.73% View View
7:05 PM Seattle +250 436 35.94% NY Yankees -270 777 64.06% View View
12:35 PM Arizona +119 515 36.89% Cincinnati -127 881 63.11% View View
7:15 PM San Francisco +123 474 39.04% St. Louis -131 740 60.96% View View
8:05 PM Milwaukee +136 551 45.69% Chi. Cubs -144 655 54.31% View View
12:35 PM NY Mets +133 674 48.32% Pittsburgh -141 721 51.68% View View
3:35 PM Houston -105 683 50.89% San Diego -103 659 49.11% View View
7:00 PM Philadelphia +128 739 58.47% Atlanta -136 525 41.53% View View
8:10 PM Chi. White Sox -134 873 66.34% Kansas City +126 443 33.66% View View
Totals (Over/Under)Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds
12:35 PM Arizona 8.5 Cincinnati 287 30.76% 646 69.24% View View
7:15 PM San Francisco 9 St. Louis 286 38.13% 464 61.87% View View
12:35 PM NY Mets 8 Pittsburgh 365 39.59% 557 60.41% View View
7:05 PM Seattle 9 NY Yankees 333 43.87% 426 56.13% View View
10:05 PM Baltimore 9.5 LA Angels 355 45.22% 430 54.78% View View
8:05 PM Milwaukee 9 Chi. Cubs 83 45.60% 99 54.40% View View
8:10 PM Chi. White Sox 9 Kansas City 335 46.33% 388 53.67% View View
3:35 PM Houston 7 San Diego 399 46.67% 456 53.33% View View
7:00 PM Philadelphia 8 Atlanta 427 55.74% 339 44.26% View View


8:00 PM Sacramento +6 237 33.66% Minnesota -6 467 66.34% View View
7:30 PM Detroit +3 267 38.58% New York -3 425 61.42% View View
7:00 PM Connecticut +4.5 317 46.08% Indiana -4.5 371 53.92% View View
Totals (Over/Under)Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds
7:30 PM Detroit 141.5 New York 271 47.38% 301 52.62% View View
8:00 PM Sacramento 163.5 Minnesota 335 57.46% 248 42.54% View View
7:00 PM Connecticut 140.5 Indiana 375 63.88% 212 36.12% View View

[StarnetGypsy]

I will shit if the M's beat the -300 Yankees who i got adding 40% to the return on my parlay

3/tm parlay
Cubs -150
Yankees -300
WhiteSox -140


Good luck to you guys on your picks!

[nino brown]

could be just what you need star if you are a little backed up.

[Fuzzyxlogikk]

Shock +2 1st half
Indiana Fever under 140.5
Minnesota Lynx -6
Minnesota Lynx over 163

[stevo]

O.K. of course the AZ bullpen can't hold a 2-1 lead in bottom of nine. 2-2 with 2 outs now.

Lets see how I can get screwed on this one........LOL

[luke m.]

Im sure being enticed by that White Sox game tonight! Buerhle -132 looks very attractive. Anything I should consider here?

[stevo]

No screw job. 3-2 final. I'll take it.

On to Philly WYMA

[VY10]

Originally Posted by luke m.

Im sure being enticed by that White Sox game tonight! Buerhle -132 looks very attractive. Anything I should consider here?

I'm on that too Luke...
I just took CWS -135

Also on the Eskimos -8 and the OVER 52

[VY10]

Also looking at, but haven't clicked them yet, the Braves and the Giants

[luke m.]

9:00 PM Winnipeg +8 581 40.86% Edmonton -8 841 59.14% View View
Totals (Over/Under)Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds
9:00 PM Winnipeg 52 Edmonton 669 55.43% 538 44.57% View View

[VY10]

Ditching the Giants, and going with the Braves

[VY10]

adding Eskimos -4.5 1H

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Luke, I grabbed Serena +133 for the finals. Always liked her better.

[azwannawin]

cubs

kc rline

over winnipeg

good luck

[azwannawin]

LAA X3

[WhereYaMamiAt]

Originally Posted by WhereYaMamiAt

Not much to work with today...but like the atl/phi under 8...happ 3-0 on the road with a 1.67 era while vasquez hasnt allowed more then 2 runs at home in his last 6 starts. Both could go the distance....lets get it!

...made us sweat a lil at the end but well take it rite stevo?

[luke m.]

YouTube - Fergie - Glamorous