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Old 04-30-2009, 10:01 AM
Rogthedodger Rogthedodger is offline
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Default The Daily Grind of Sportsbetting: It Ain't as Easy as it Used to Be...By Jay Graziani

About a decade ago, in the heyday of the online gambling industry, would-be sharps seemingly sprouted from the woodwork. Banking a little coin through internet gambling was easy back then; making enough to support oneself was maybe a bit harder. But a relatively intelligent player could grab his fair share of the gambling pie with just a little bit of effort.

There were plenty of "outs" for players to pick up quick bonuses and loose lines, and anyone with access to the Don Best screen could pull in a decent side income just chasing steam, grabbing middles, and hammering slow-moving numbers. And if you got booted for being an undesirable, a steam-chaser or bonus whore? Just move on to the next shop, as new bookmakers were popping their heads up nearly daily.

Nowadays, it's significantly harder for a part-timer to pull in even a meager income consistently. While there are many possible reasons for the decreased profitability of online sportsbetting, a few significant ones stand out:

A more efficient market. Sports markets were once widely spread out, with little cross-talk between bookies. No matter how sharp a particular guy in Florida was, his betting activity had little effect on someone using a different bookie in New York or Los Angeles, especially on game day, where the morning paper was as good a source of lines as anything else. Lines were essentially static outside of Las Vegas. Even at the beginning of the internet age, things were spread out enough that real-time scalps and middles could be found. Now, all bets are essentially fed into the same global market, and sharp action can send ripples throughout the entire industry within seconds. The emergence of betting exchanges has made the sports markets even more interconnected, and the global reach of the internet has brought even more players into the mix. What all this means is increased competition for the best lines and, ultimately, tighter lines that are harder for the average player to beat.

A consolidated sportsbetting industry. At the peak of the industry there were dozens of different sportsbooks open for business, all with bonuses and their own set of lines. Even "clone" books would often be caught with their pants down on a big line move. Now, the power is consolidated in the hands of much fewer players, as the small fish got eaten up after the U.S. gambling crackdown. Less competition means fewer amenities for the players, which is one reason for the recent lack of bonuses, reduced juice, and other incentives. It also means less opportunity for line-shopping, a key factor in winning at sports gambling.

More efficient sportsbooks. Not only are there fewer sportsbooks, the ones that are left are leaner and meaner. They know how to manage lines, handle bonuses, and deal with sharp players. The books that have survived are going to make you work harder to take a profit away from them. They move their lines rapidly, they keep their thumbs on bonuses, and are quick to limit players who are too sharp for their liking. In other words, today's sportsbooks, unlike their predecessors, aren't giving anything away.

Easier access to stats and information. The internet is the greatest media tool in history, providing access to nearly limitless information at the click of a mouse. This information includes historical scores and lines, game and player stats, and reams of other statistical trivia. Anyone with the time and motivation to research an angle now has the power to do so. Spreadsheet and database software, with some versions available for free, have given novices the number-crunching power once reserved for mathematicians. And the advent of internet billboards and other online social networks have allowed knowledge to spread at an unprecedented pace. All of this makes for more-informed gamblers, and that translates into more accurate betting lines.

Increased statistical research. We see more and more sportsbetting-themed research coming out of economics and finance departments at universities, such as those by Prof. Justin Wolfers that have at times found a degree of notoriety. You might argue that not a lot of people read those papers, especially the more obscure ones, but it doesn't take a whole lot of smart money to move lines nowadays. In the widely-connected sports market that exists today, this newly discovered information can work its way into the lines quickly.

No matter what the reason, it sure seems a lot harder to grind out a side income betting sports nowadays. And don't expect it get easier. Ever. If legalized/regulated, the requisite taxes will squeeze the last drops of profit out of the industry, and the nature of the regulation process would mean more power consolidated among even fewer sportsbooks. If left unregulated, the industry is unlikely to ever achieve the same level of magnitude without coming under even more intense government regulation and policing.

Of course good handicappers, those that can make a line better than the oddsmakers, will always find a way to make money. But at some point, even for them, the tighter markets may not provide a good enough return on investment to justify the workload.

04-30-09
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-745.html
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Old 04-30-2009, 12:15 PM
stevo stevo is offline
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Great synopsis Jay.
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Old 04-30-2009, 03:02 PM
howid howid is offline
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you're right it's getting tougher
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Old 04-30-2009, 07:30 PM
Hartley Hartley is offline
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YouTube - Mary Hopkins - Those Were The Days My Friend
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Old 04-30-2009, 07:47 PM
j j is offline
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Originally Posted by Hartley View Post
I was told, however, from someone reliable that you should start seeing a lot more payment options for Americans (both payments in and out) within a few months. He said he couldn't go into details but said by June he'll give me more info.
I'm looking forward to the June story abou how it's gonna get easier.
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Old 04-30-2009, 10:26 PM
Hartley Hartley is offline
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As soon as I get the info. I'll put up the story j. I wouldn't have mentioned that if I wasn't told it by a reliable source.
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Old 05-01-2009, 01:15 AM
j j is offline
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It seems like something good is in the air...Matchbook testing the waters with Gold-Pay and allowing transfers to a discount book...Frank putting the UIGEA on the table again...the knee-jerk moralist Republicans melting down...I don't have any special insight, but my spidey sense is that things might get just a fraction easier for U.S-based advantage gamblers.
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Old 05-01-2009, 01:25 AM
Ringo Ringo is offline
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The good old days just seemed like yesterday when I had a stash of monkey joints dealing -05 lines with access to about 30 diff accnts... Nowadays, I'm forced to beat the euromonkeys dealing at pinny and the canadian matchbox shot takers with a 2 sec headstart on espn gms
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Old 05-01-2009, 11:41 AM
DrunkenGoon DrunkenGoon is offline
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Good article.

The one other thing that is making real time scalping impossible is the introduction of robot software, a lot of places that are out of line get banged up right away as buyers take and value and scalp it against exchanges.
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Old 05-01-2009, 12:20 PM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo View Post
Great synopsis Jay.
Look forward to seeing your book hit the stands
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Old 05-01-2009, 07:28 PM
j j is offline
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Look forward to seeing your book hit the stands
Did I miss something? Is there a title I should be putting into my book budget?
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Old 05-01-2009, 09:07 PM
StarnetGypsy StarnetGypsy is offline
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Did I miss something? Is there a title I should be putting into my book budget?
No J. I just think that with Jay's grasp of things, it would be a shame for him not to write a book?

Guess I shoulda said that ... my bad.
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Old 05-01-2009, 09:25 PM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
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Good writeup. I don't know where people find edges anymore. Too tough.
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Old 05-01-2009, 09:53 PM
HG HG is offline
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I remember betting 15c+ scalps 2k at a time between casablanca and canbet on nhl 1.5 lines. Neither book had a clue what they were doing. The funniest part of it was that casablanca would pay you a bonus on winnings after the week was over. You'd take free $ from them all week long and they'd then pay you a bonus?? Yeah, times have indeed changed.

My first bet with NAB was a bit ridiculous too. I made a mistake ( if I remember correctly they had home and away teams upside down when they started) on my very first bet so I called "Bill" and he canceled the wager for me. It was a 12c scalp when I called in. I went to put in the correct bet online and of course Bill hadn't changed the odds back after my bet. So now it was a 21c scalp. Thanks goodness sicky g was gone swimming that afternoon, because I think we were the only two guys who played there at the beginning.
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Old 05-01-2009, 11:47 PM
Hartley Hartley is offline
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Clevfan from what I read you're trading pieces of gold instead of dollars or something. I personally don't understand it but I guess if it's a payment option that works then great. I'll see what more I can find about it and why it would be considered more legal than a Neteller.
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Old 05-02-2009, 04:31 PM
Uncle B Uncle B is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogthedodger View Post
More efficient sportsbooks. Not only are there fewer sportsbooks, the ones that are left are leaner and meaner. They know how to manage lines, handle bonuses, and deal with sharp players.



shiat.....decent bonus offers are nearly extinct these days...
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