RAVENS WILL PUT END TO DOLPHINS' FEEL-GOOD STORY

[clevfan]

RAVENS WILL PUT END TO DOLPHINS' FEEL-GOOD STORY

By RICHARD WITT
NY POST

January 4, 2009 --
Ravens (-3½) over DOLPHINS; Under 37½: Playoff home 'dogs have been the league's version of a fan-friendly slot machine for years. Teams getting points with the added benefits of home cooking are on a 72-percent against the spread postseason run, despite going 1-3 ATS most recently.

A case can be made for these Dolphins, especially because they're the recipients of a line move which hands them the most valuable half-point in the sport (from +3 to +3½). Throw out their 1-5 ATS record as favorites this year (including their earlier loss to these Ravens), and they have outperformed market expectations on seven of 10 occasions, largely because ofChad Pennington's broad effectiveness, not to mention most defenses' frustration in the face of the Wildcat offense.

Alas, the Wildcat is a double-edged sword, because when it's stuffed, the Dolphins rushing attack is frankly insufficient. In that earlier meeting, Miami managed four-fifths of a yard per attempt when Wildcatting against the stingy Baltimore defense.

After going 1-15 in his stint as head coach of the Dolphins last year, Cam Cameron is now the Ravens offensive coordinator. But Cameron's one win last year came against Baltimore, and his offensive stylings scored or set up 20 of the 27 points the Ravens hung up against Miami in October. Respect an operative who has won on both sides of this equation, especially his work in placing rookie QB Joe Flacco in offensive settings within which Flacco has thrived.

The Ravens' broad body of work is legitimate. They fought the Titans and Steelers (twice!) to the wire, and thrashed both Philadelphia and Dallas, not to mention Miami. But other than shocking the Pats with the Wildcat early, and catching the Chargers in South Florida, the list of Dolphin wins is unimpressive, aside from the final must-win against the imploding Jets. Miami has done a good deal right, and it has got a chance, but assignment's stiff.

Ravens 20, Dolphins 14

VIKINGS (+3) over Eagles; Under 42: Acquainted with a few folks who think handicapping pro football playoff action is easy. This is a dangerous delusion. Should you fail to envision each team's true potential - and if you can't accurately judge which direction they're heading - you will wind up lost.

Largely on the strength of their sustained postseason experience and their dismembering of a dazed and confused Cowboys contingent by 38 points last weekend, the Eagles find themselves significantly favored. Under sustained late-season stress, Philadelphia came through handsomely. But, understandably, the Eagles almost have to regress off that superlative effort, which leaves Andy Reid's club ripe to be picked off.

Road-chalk Philly finds itself facing a foe which has ripped several pages from the Eagles' master plan. Vikings coach Brad Childress was Andy Reid's of fensive coordinator during the peak years of Philly's most-re cent cycle of success, and current Min neso ta's defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier also was a Reid staffer.

Operating largely under the radar (by NFL standards) in Minnesota, Childress has done a superb job maintaining an even keel while juggling key personnel as necessary. A modern-day Bud Grant! After opening the season 0-2 with the high-potential (though relatively inexperienced) Tarvaris Jackson, Childress went with veteran Gus Frerotte.

It worked until Frerotte injured his lower back against the Lions in Week 14. Jackson then demonstrated the truth of Yogi Berra's "You can observe a lot just by watching" the rest of the way, caring for the football while displaying an increased confidence in his passing abilities.

Given the projected return of Minnesota's DT Pat Williams from injury, calling for the upset. With considerable assistance from Williams, the Vikings have allowed 77 yards per game on the ground, the league's best.

This reality figures to make it all too easy for Reid to yield to his worst instincts by adhering to an unhealthy pass/run ratio on offense, with uneven, erratic results.

Philadelphia's main chance is for its pass rush to drive Jackson to distraction, though when you have Adrian Peterson working against you, it would be impru dent to sell-out blitz too often, lest Peter son get past the first wave and find him self in open space. New Philly wideout DeSean Jackson's a find, but he can't do it all himself.

Because it was Jeff Garcia who guided Philadelphia to its win over the Giants in the wild-card round two seasons back, note that the Reid/Donovan McNabb combination hasn't won a playoff game since Childress' departure.

McNabb enjoys a solid ca reer mark against this foe, but the bulk of it was au thored when NOT facing Childress (can't take 2007 win over Brooks Bollinger and Kelly Holcomb too seriously). Also note that Iggles are 1-4 SU under Reid when away from home in postseason, all as un derdogs (though 4-1 ATS). The old order changeth.

Vikings 21, Eagles 17

[clevfan]

I'd really like to see the Dolphins win this game

[Pancho Sanza]

They will

[clevfan]

Inactive of note: Randy Starks.

Rodrique Wright is active.

[rm0874]

whats everyone thinking about the over unders for todays games?

[Mr Falcone]

Thorn

Ravens -3-130

Best of luck

[nino brown]

whats the tic count on the game mr. f?

[Mr Falcone]

JOES all over Ravens 602-331

Nothing like yesterdays games

But Eagles will be its already at 437-87

[StarnetGypsy]

Fumble!

[stevo]

Miami can't punch it in.

Ravens nice stand.

[stevo]

Now Miami with a great goal line stand.

Battle out there.

[StarnetGypsy]

i need a fistfull of TDs

[VY10]

Baltimore won't blow this game

[easyunder]

Originally Posted by VY10

Baltimore won't blow this game

In what position are they to "blow" this game?

[StarnetGypsy]

mannn, i musta been smokin drugs to think OV35 would hit in this game ... will be lucky to see 15

[cash]

Originally Posted by Pancho Sanza

They will

Still trying to fade cashpicks. Won't you ever learn

[clevfan]

there's your over, starnet!

[KoolPappyPD]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

mannn, i musta been smokin drugs to think OV35 would hit in this game

hit it that pipe again Gyps...

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by clevfan

there's your over, starnet!

lol ... only one problem Clev, it was in a parlay with Phish covering 6½

thanks for the good vibes tho! (you too Pappy)

Vikings +6½
Eagles Over 38
Dolphins +6½ LOST
Ravens Over 35 WON