On the Money: Rookie bosses weigh on this week's wagers

[clevfan]

November 20, 2008


On the Money: Rookie bosses weigh on this week's wagers

By Bob Christ
Special to the Reno Gazette-Journal

Each season, there seems to be a special awe of coaches who have a Super Bowl pelt on the wall. Six of them are roaming the sidelines this fall, including Seattle's Mike Holmgren.

On the other hand, there also are four coaches who were rookies in Week 1 -- Miami's Tony Sparano, Atlanta's Mike Smith, Baltimore's John Harbaugh and Washington's Jim Zorn. To date, the championship bosses have a cumulative 36-24 mark (.600). Somewhat surprisingly, the rookie bosses are 24-16 (also .600).

Better yet is the fact that the rookies are a combined .570 against the line, compared with .517 for the veterans. It's apparent either the veteran coaches aren't having a super year or the rookie bosses are doing better or being somewhat undervalued. This could be a good week to cash in.

To recap last weekend, the bankroll was 3-for-3. High-fives to the Giants, Saints and Buccaneers.

Here are Week 12's picks:

Redskins (-3.5) over Seahawks

So, how did Holmgren's re-energized offense do against Arizona last week with Matt Hasselbeck back under center? For the fourth time this season, the Seahawks failed to reach 200 yards of total offense. That's a league high. They did have three TDs, but the longest of the drives was 19 yards. Zorn's Redskins are more careful with the ball than Arizona and have a better defense. I'll wager $55.

Texans (+3) over Browns

Cleveland's victory in Buffalo on Monday masked severe problems. The Browns didn't have a pass rush and clearly had no answer for the Bills' pedestrian running game. Cleveland easily could have lost despite a plus-4 turnover edge. That almost never happens. Since 2006, only three times in 40 games has a team been defeated that had such a positive differential. I'll wager $44.

Vikings (+2) over Jaguars

Minnesota QB Gus Frerotte has been a punching bag for analysts all year, and deservedly so. But in his eight starts, five times he's faced one of the league's top 11 pass defenses (based on passer rating). However, against those ranked 19th or worse he and the team have thrived, going 3-0. Jacksonville, which is going south in a hurry, has the league's seventh worst unit. I'll wager $33.

Last week: +$90

Season total: $730

Additional Facts

This is the 12th column in a weekly NFL betting series that will appear Thursdays.
THE WAGER: Bob Christ has been given a hypothetical $500 to wager on NFL games. The odds are a consensus of three Vegas sports books.

[clevfan]

Tonight's game

Cincinnati (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh (7-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 10.5

Facts: Only five teams have gone longer without a defeat than the Bengals, who last loss was Oct. 26. Last week they tied Philadelphia 13-13 despite having a plus-3 turnover edge. ... In their previous meeting, Pittsburgh won 38-10 in Week 7. On the Bengals' first five drives, they totaled 3 yards of forward progress. ... Since Cincinnati opened its Week 9 victory over Jacksonville with 84- and 88-yard TD drives, it hasn't reached 50 yards on any of its ensuing 27 possessions. ... Cincinnati is 1-10 at home against the Steelers the past 10 years, but 3-2 at Pittsburgh the previous five. ... Double-digit underdogs are 14-1 against the line this season. ... The Eagles had eight sacks of the Bengals' Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, tied for second most by any team in a game this year. The most occurred when the Eagles had nine against Pittsburgh in Week 3.

Analysis: For the second time in league history, a team that just played a full five quarters of football will be coming back on three-days' rest. You try it. In 1989, the weary Browns (7-3-1) traveled to Detroit on Thanksgiving and lost to the Lions (2-9) as a 6.5-point favorite. Since the Bengals were no match for Pittsburgh five weeks ago with normal rest, a convincing Steelers victory seems to be in order. And, yes, RB Willie Parker and QB Ben Roethlisberger appear ready to go.

Forecast: Steelers 31, Bengals 13