If Nittany Lions avoid turnovers, expect them to cover in Columbus

[clevfan]

Oct. 25, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

MAJOR ROAD TEST: Clark on mark for Penn State

If Nittany Lions avoid turnovers, expect them to cover in Columbus

By BARRY HOLTHAUS
SPECIAL TO THE REVIEW-JOURNAL

Penn State football coach Joe Paterno is in the final years of a great career. It might be his last year. But he's also overseeing one of his best teams.

The Nittany Lions have been impressive in all phases of the game while compiling an 8-0 record, and they face their toughest test of the season tonight in Columbus, Ohio.

Senior quarterback Daryll Clark and sophomore running back Evan Royster lead a balanced Penn State offense that averages more than 200 yards per game both running and passing.

Ohio State benefited from five Michigan State turnovers in last week's 45-7 romp. The previous week, the Buckeyes' one-dimensional offense was held without a touchdown in a 16-3 home victory over Purdue.

If the Nittany Lions can avoid turnovers in this big road test, they can cover as 2-point favorites and boost their national title hopes.

Other selections for today's games (home team in CAPS):

• NORTH CAROLINA (-2) over Boston College: The Tar Heels return home after losing for the 14th straight time at Virginia. North Carolina was doomed by three turnovers in a 16-13 overtime loss. Boston College defeated Virginia Tech 28-23 despite the inconsistent play of quarterback Chris Crane, who threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

• Illinois (-21/2) over WISCONSIN: The Badgers have fallen from No. 8 in the nation to the bottom of the Big Ten with an 0-4 record. Quarterback Allan Evridge was benched last week at Iowa in favor of Dustin Sherer, who again will start for Wisconsin. Illini junior Juice Williams is one of the country's most improved quarterbacks by adding increased passing accuracy to his mobility.

• Duke (+101/2) over VANDERBILT: The hardest game to win is the one to be bowl eligible for the first time in 26 years. This is what Vanderbilt hopes to accomplish today against Duke. The Commodores, hurt by a passing game that averages only 96 yards, struggle to score.

• Alabama (-5) over TENNESSEE: The Crimson Tide seems to play its best games away from home, as evidenced by victories over Clemson and Georgia this season. Steady senior quarterback John Parker Wilson is the key to the road success. Florida blew out the Volunteers in Knoxville, and the Vols barely beat Northern Illinois, 13-9.

• Ucla (+18) over CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears continue to juggle quarterbacks, with Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore falling in and out of favor with coach Jeff Tedford. California blew a 24-14 halftime lead in last week's loss at Arizona.

Bruins quarterback Kevin Craft led his team on an 87-yard drive in the final 2:23 to nip Stanford 23-20, and Craft should make enough plays to keep this within the number.

• Virginia (+14) over GEORGIA TECH: The "Groh Must Go" signs referring to Cavaliers coach Al Groh are nowhere to be found after Virginia's third straight win over a quality opponent. The Cavs are getting improved production from running back Cedric Peerman and new quarterback Marc Verica. Georgia Tech is solid, but Virginia can keep it close.

• Unr (-3) over HAWAII: The Wolf Pack lost a 28-26 game at home last year on a 45-yard field goal, keeping alive Hawaii's undefeated season. UNR quarterback Colin Kaepernick is the trigger man in coach Chris Ault's "Pistol" offense, a modified version of the shotgun.

Last week, the Warriors' version of the run-and-shoot offense looked like the "chuck-and-duck" as Hawaii quarterback Inoke Funaki tossed five interceptions.

Last week: 4-1 against the spread

Season: 22-24

Barry Holthaus, a handicapper for VegasInsider.com, is providing college football analysis for the Review-Journal this season.

[drunkguy]

i like the over

[stevo]

Rooting for Joe.

[drunkguy]

yea, let's win one for the old guy

[stevo]

Thats right D.G.

[BuzzRavanaugh]

Lets win one for mjh and drunkguy!!!

[KoolPappy]

Sorry Nittany Lions fans...



LOL...seriously, never been much of a Penn State fan...but that said, I'm pulling for Joe Pa to finish out with a memorable year and retire...guy deserves respect!

[drunkguy]

[mjh218]

Here are my thoughts on the game


Lets take a look at the games where Pryor has started b/c they are a different sort of team with him at qb.

Troy - TP threw 4 TD's, yet he was only 10-16 for 140 yards and he threw an int. He also ran it for 66 yards.

Minnesota - TP threw for 70 yards and 1 TD. He ran for 97 yards and 2 TD's.

Wisky - TP was 13/19 for no TD's and one INT. He ran for 20 yards and 1 TD

Purdue - TP threw for 10/14 for 97 yards and no TD's. He ran for 27 yards.

MSU - TP threw for 7/11 for 115 yards and 1 TDhe ran for 72 yards and 1 TD.

OSU's passing offense has yet to throw for over 150 yards since TP took control. Most of their games (Wisky, Purdue, Minnesota) were a bit closer than the experts predicted. Actually, OSU really struggled with Wisky and Purdue, and had control of Minny until the Gophers scored some 4th quarter points.

Last week they laid a whopin on MSU, but how did they do it? Certainly not with offense. Wells had a pretty good game with 140 yards rushing and 2 TD's.

Here is a look at OSU's scoring drives -

4 plays 47 yards - TD

5 plays 2 yards - TD

2 plays 57 yards - TD

9 plays 77 yards - TD

1 play 69 yards (defensive TD)

1 play 48 yards (defensive TD)

Last week the offense scored on 2 drives longer than 50 yards. MSU gave OSU the ball in great position all day, whether by fumbles, int's. The turnover comparision last week was MSU 5 and OSU 0. That was the reason OSU made the score look silly, MSU couldnt hang on to the ball.

The defenses are statistically similar. PSU allows 263.3 yards a game (8th in the country) and OSU gives up 265.4 (25th in the country). PSU allows about 12 points per game (6th in the country) and OSU 13.4 (12th). Sacks PSU 2.88(14th) OSU 1.75 (63rd). 3rd down conversion D PSU 27% (5th) OSU 36% (50th).

Here are a few places I see OSU having the advantage

1. Home field advantage. This will be big as long as OSU is in the lead or the game is close. The Shoe is a tough place to play and PSU will have a very hostile crowd to deal with.

2. OSU hasn't turned the ball over a lot this year. But PSU is actually a bit better. I give OSU the advantage here b/c how opportunistic their D has been. They have 22 takeaways this year which is 2nd in the nation.

3. The OSU secondary is extremely opportunistic, athletic and is clearly the strength of the team. Clark will have to be on his game.

Here is where I give PSU the advantage

1. PSU D line v. OSU O line. OSU has given up over 2.5 sacks per game (103rd) and PSU has averaged well over 2.5 sacks a game. I think PSU can dominate this line of scrimage. The OSU line is much better at run blocking. TP is getting sacked at a pretty high rate.

2. PSU O line v. OSU D line. In my opinion the OSU D is good b/c of their secondary and LB's. Their D line isn't all that special. They are averaging 1.75 sacks per game (63rd) and the PSU O line is one of the best units in the country and allows only .75 sacks per game (6th). Clark is a mobile (not mobile like Pryor, but capable of moving around) qb and also get the ball out quickly. This is a pretty big advantage for PSU

I think these defenses cancel out each other. The difference to me is PSU has a multi-faceted offense that can move the ball on the ground (via Royster, Clark and Green) and in the air. OSU struggles to move the ball through the air. They have had a good amount of success using Beanie, who is a beast. My guess is that PSU dares TP to beat them with short passes. From what I have seen from him thus far, he can't do that very well.

If PSU can minimize the turnovers they escape Columbus with a 28-20 win.

Should be an exciting game!

[luke m.]

Penn St./Alabama Nat'l. Championship

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by luke m.

Penn St./Alabama Nat'l. Championship

i thot you were a Texan, Lucky Luke? not the Longhorns?

[mjh218]

I think Bama gets beat today