calling spraguer

[rhinoceros]

I liked you MLB playoff analysis a lot. Are you going to post similar stuff for the world series?

[stevo]

I dropped him a PM. Hopefully he is preparing one.

[teazeman]

Originally Posted by stevo

I dropped him a PM. Hopefully he is preparing one.

indeed.

[luke m.]

The fact that we can play the Rays at an underdog price here tells us that the markets still do not fully believe what has happened this season. We do, and that gets us in the hunt at this price.

Tampa Bay has gone 61-26 at home this season. That record goes to 14-2 when Scott Kazmir starts. And note just how impressive that 14-2 is. In that span he faced the Red Sox three times, the Yankees and White Sox twice, and the Cubs, Angels and Twins. Only four of those 16 starts came against teams that had losing seasons. There have to be some extraordinary circumstances for this total package to be made the underdogs here, an that is not the case. Yes, Kazmir has some late-season struggles, but we believe that he regained his swagger in that brilliant Game #5 ALCS outing at Fenway Park, when he shut the Red Sox out over six innings, only allowing two hits while striking out seven. He is more than accustomed to tough challenges – of the 140 pitchers that worked at least 100 innings this season, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #6. (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our measurement) And that deep bullpen that has made this team so special all season now adds a new full dimension in David Price, who Joe Madden shows significant confidence in. The latter innings bring depth from both the left and right side of the mound, which can help to work through some of the tough matchups that the Phillies bring.

Cole Hamels is very good, but he is carrying a price tag that goes beyond his merits. There is major difference in quality of competition between what he faced and Kazmir (#78 vs. #6), and the Hamels/Phillies package was not all that special on the road, going just 10-7. But break that down one more step, and we get a more clear picture – they were 8-0 on the road against teams with losing records, and just 2-7 in the other nine games. The Rays twice beat Jon Lester in the ALCS, despite the fact that his late-season form made him the best in the sport on our charts, and in the Chicago series scored eight runs in 13.1 innings vs. Mark Buehrle and John Danks, so they have passed some tough recent tests against quality left-handers.

There is also that Tropicana Field factor. Not only do the Phillies have to face what will be a frenzied crowd, but there is also the difficulty of adjusting to playing in a dome that brings some eccentricities into the game. It all adds up to solid value to the home team in a price range that we believe is wrong.

[rhinoceros]

I agree with most of what you said, and do indeed like the Rays at current prices. But I wonder if you are overemphasizing home field advantage. HFA has generally been small in MLB. This season was different. So has something changed, or is this season a quirky outlier with little predictive value? I tend towards the latter. And considering home/away splits for individual players is another way of observing the same phenomenon

[RaisinCapital]

HFA always greater in WS

[Spraguer]

Originally Posted by luke m.

By Spraguer(Major Wager Poster)

The fact that we can play the Rays at an underdog price here tells us that the markets still do not fully believe what has happened this season. We do, and that gets us in the hunt at this price.

Tampa Bay has gone 61-26 at home this season. That record goes to 14-2 when Scott Kazmir starts. And note just how impressive that 14-2 is. In that span he faced the Red Sox three times, the Yankees and White Sox twice, and the Cubs, Angels and Twins. Only four of those 16 starts came against teams that had losing seasons. There have to be some extraordinary circumstances for this total package to be made the underdogs here, an that is not the case. Yes, Kazmir has some late-season struggles, but we believe that he regained his swagger in that brilliant Game #5 ALCS outing at Fenway Park, when he shut the Red Sox out over six innings, only allowing two hits while striking out seven. He is more than accustomed to tough challenges – of the 140 pitchers that worked at least 100 innings this season, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #6. (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our measurement) And that deep bullpen that has made this team so special all season now adds a new full dimension in David Price, who Joe Madden shows significant confidence in. The latter innings bring depth from both the left and right side of the mound, which can help to work through some of the tough matchups that the Phillies bring.

Cole Hamels is very good, but he is carrying a price tag that goes beyond his merits. There is major difference in quality of competition between what he faced and Kazmir (#78 vs. #6), and the Hamels/Phillies package was not all that special on the road, going just 10-7. But break that down one more step, and we get a more clear picture – they were 8-0 on the road against teams with losing records, and just 2-7 in the other nine games. The Rays twice beat Jon Lester in the ALCS, despite the fact that his late-season form made him the best in the sport on our charts, and in the Chicago series scored eight runs in 13.1 innings vs. Mark Buehrle and John Danks, so they have passed some tough recent tests against quality left-handers.

There is also that Tropicana Field factor. Not only do the Phillies have to face what will be a frenzied crowd, but there is also the difficulty of adjusting to playing in a dome that brings some eccentricities into the game. It all adds up to solid value to the home team in a price range that we believe is wrong.

I did not write that.

[Dunny]

WTF Luke M.??

[namathfan]

that Luke's attempt (which is clearly a copy and paste), had nowhere near the depth of a Spraguer write up. Kind of surprised no one noticed or said anything.

Hopefully Spraguer can share one last write-up...here's hoping.

[Bostongambler]

In the last 12 World Series 11 times the winner of game #1 has won the Series.


I think Phils. time off will effect them.

[Rogthedodger]

Spraguer, I removed the line attributing that piece to you in Luke's post.

Luke, I know you put the "laughing" icon next to the source...but that can be taken many ways. Please don't attribute articles to people that didn't write them unless you are clear that you are joking about the source, thanks.

[parlayin]

Originally Posted by Spraguer

I did not write that.

Are you going to post one then? You don't owe anyone anything, but the original post was asking if you were going to. If you're going to come into the thread, can you at least answer that?

[Spraguer]

See here.

[stevo]

Thank you very much Spraguer.

Kudos for doing these and sharing your plays year in and year out.