Patriots good play as 3-point favorites at 49ers coming off loss, bye week

[clevfan]

Oct. 05, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

'DEFENSIVE GENIUS': Belichick cranky, prepared

Patriots good play as 3-point favorites at 49ers coming off loss, bye week

REVIEW-JOURNAL

Even when the New England Patriots are winning, Bill Belichick appears to be in a bad mood. The grumpy, tight-lipped coach barely seems to enjoy being on the right side of a blowout.

Now that things are starting to go wrong for the Patriots, who lost quarterback Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 and absorbed an embarrassing 25-point beating by the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, imagine Belichick's disgust.

New England is a 3-point favorite at San Francisco today. Doug Kezirian, the sports director for KTNV (Channel 13), said he expects the defending AFC champions to bounce back.

"Off a bye week, the Patriots approach a major fork in the road. This game will define whether they can make the playoffs or Brady's injury has proved too catastrophic," Kezirian said

"Many regard Belichick as a defensive genius. The bye afforded him two weeks to prepare for San Francisco, and it is time for him to display the abilities that helped him win three Super Bowls."

The 49ers, 2-2 straight up and against the spread, are tied for first in the NFC West. Journeyman quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan is playing well under the guidance of offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

"San Francisco is showing significant improvement," Kezirian said. "But subpar defenses in Arizona and New Orleans limited the Niners in their two losses. The Patriots have aging linebackers but should still be able to perform similarly, terrorizing an offensive line that has surrendered 19 sacks."

New England is 2-12 against the spread in its past 14 games but was a heavy favorite in most of those games. The Patriots are 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread this season.

"They have a new identity, rallying around inexperienced quarterback Matt Cassel," said Kezirian, noting Belichick has covered 13 straight times against NFC West opponents and nine straight times on the road after a loss.

Kezirian (ktnv.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 5 schedule:

• Indianapolis (-3) at Houston: The Colts (1-2) typically run the table in September, but injuries hit them hard. They used the bye to get healthy, especially on the offensive line. The Colts' defense is much less effective without injured safety Bob Sanders, especially against the run. The Texans (0-3) will exploit that advantage, and this should go over the total (48).

• Tennessee (-3) at Baltimore: These teams' defenses hit hard and force offenses to string together multiple first downs to score. The major difference is at quarterback. Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco has minimal offensive weapons and should struggle with Tennessee's complex schemes. Titans veteran Kerry Collins will avoid mistakes and allow a strong rushing game to score enough points to cover.

• San Diego (-61/2) at Miami: The Dolphins shocked everyone with a resounding victory at New England to match last year's win total. But Bill Parcells sets the bar higher and will stymie the celebration, especially after a bye week. San Diego coach Norv Turner reminded fans of his inept play-calling last weekend, narrowly avoiding an upset loss. But the offense also reminded fans of its potential, scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter. The Chargers have far superior talent but figure to struggle with their second consecutive road game, a cross-country flight and an early start time.

• Kansas City at Carolina (-91/2): The Chiefs restored order last week and defended Arrowhead Stadium with an emotional win over division rival Denver. But Carolina figures to protect the ball better and play much tougher defense. The conservative Panthers typically are poor favorites, but Kansas City's offense might not find the end zone. Expect Carolina to control a low-scoring game.

• Washington at Philadelphia (-6): Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb is not the same without running back Brian Westbrook. Washington looked pathetic in the season opener but has rebounded with three impressive wins. This might be a prime spot for a Redskins letdown, and Philadelphia desperately needs this game. It all hinges on whether Westbrook returns from injury and McNabb can exploit a banged-up Washington secondary.

• Chicago (-31/2) at Detroit: Despite a stumbling economy and soaring gas prices, the Motor City is rejoicing because the Lions finally fired president Matt Millen. While optimism exists for the future, the current players and coaches rank among the NFL's worst. The 2-2 Bears easily could be undefeated, if not for a few plays. The winless Lions are 4-13-1 against the spread in their past 18 division games, and Millen's departure does not solve their inability to stop the run.

• Atlanta at Green Bay (-4): This line has been adjusted because of the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (sprained throwing shoulder). Green Bay has lost two in a row and faces rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at Lambeau Field. If young QB Matt Flynn starts for the Packers, expect field goals instead of touchdowns. Both coaches will rely on their talented running backs.

• Seattle at New York Giants (-7): Most experts wrote off last year's Super Bowl victory as a fluke, but the Giants have embraced the underdog label and emerged as arguably the league's best team. Seattle has battled serious injuries, but the offense receives a huge boost with the return of wide receivers Deion Branch and Bobby Engram. New York is without suspended receiver Plaxico Burress and has a knack of playing down to its opponent. But the Giants still have reasonable firepower against this historically awful road team. I like the over (431/2).

• Tampa Bay at Denver (-3): The Broncos rank among the league's highest-scoring teams, but their defense was exposed by a pedestrian Kansas City offense. The Buccaneers' calling card is defense, but quarterback Brian Griese might have a field day against Denver. Look for the tougher Bucs to win a shootout.

• Buffalo at Arizona (-11/2): Buffalo's defense deserves most of the credit for the team's unbeaten start, yielding just 15.8 points per game, but that is a bit deflated by weak opponents. Arizona's potent offense will miss injured wide receiver Anquan Boldin, but quarterback Kurt Warner thrives at home. Look over the total (44).

• Cincinnati at Dallas (-16): Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is expected to start instead of backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that makes a huge difference. The Cowboys, smarting from a home loss, should bounce back. It just seems too many points to lay against a Cincinnati team that took the Giants to overtime, assuming Palmer plays.

• Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-5): The Steelers were manhandled Monday, though a few odd plays saved them. But the overtime win against Baltimore cost them more injuries. Pittsburgh is relegated to a third-string running back and has huge holes on the offensive line. The Jaguars will cover behind a strong defense and quarterback David Garrard.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.

[clevfan]

Cassel leads Brady-less Patriots against 49ers



By Daniel Brown


Mercury News

Article Launched: 10/04/2008 09:07:10 PM PDT

The 49ers will retire Steve Young's jersey number at halftime today. Perhaps it's fitting that the game itself will feature two quarterbacks who had to wait years to get their turn.

Young is one of the most famous backups of all time, having played in the USFL and Tampa Bay and waiting four years behind Joe Montana before getting his crack at the 49ers job at age 30.

He has a kindred spirit in the 49ers' J.T. O'Sullivan, the 29-year-old who racked up more miles than a flight attendant before getting his chance this season.

But the leader in this second-fiddle orchestra is the New England Patriots' Matt Cassel. When he trots onto the Candlestick Park turf today, it will be just his third start since high school.

Cassel couldn't crack the lineup at USC behind Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.

And he certainly couldn't crack it in New England behind Tom Brady.

It wasn't until Brady himself cracked — a knee injury in the season opener — that Cassel could take his arm out of mothballs. His Week 2 start against the New York Jets was his first assignment since his Chatsworth High team took on mighty Palisades in November 1999.

Cassel's mere presence today is enough to rattle the oddsmakers. The Patriots — coming off a 16-0 regular season and their fourth Super Bowl appearance in seven years — are favored by just a field goal over a 49ers team that is 20-48 since 2004.

The cautious betting line is mostly because of a man not named Brady. With Cassel at quarterback, New England has lost much of its mystique.

The Patriots without Brady are like the Bulls without Michael Jordan. A golf major without Tiger Woods.

Patriots Coach Bill Belichick is 101-27 in his career with Brady behind center and 43-59 with everybody else. The losses include a stunning 38-13 setback two weeks ago to the Miami Dolphins, ending the Patriots' 21-game regular-season winning streak.

Is it that big a dropoff from Brady to Cassel?

"I don't think he really affects us on defense," Belichick sniffed.

The Patriots surrendered 461 yards to the Dolphins and spent the bye week trying to patch holes. It also gave them an extra week to rally around Cassel, the 6-foot-4, 230-pounder who inherited the keys to an offense that scored 589 points last season.

It's inaccurate to say Cassel is rusty. He got significant playing time during the preseason, completing 19 of 34 passes for 165 yards.

"I felt good going into the regular season," Cassel said in a conference call with Bay Area reporters last week. "When my number was called on, I was pretty confident on knowing the system and having a good idea of what we wanted to get done. As we move on, I think we mature each and every week and get a little bit better and hopefully that will continue."

Cassel (pronounced "Castle") is accustomed to being around winners. At 12, he played for a Northridge team that reached the finals of the 1994 Little League World Series in Williamsport, Pa. He could have pursued baseball, like brothers Jack (a pitcher for the Houston Astros) and Justin (a Double-A pitcher in the White Sox organization).

But he chose to play football at USC, where he backed up Heisman Trophy winners Palmer and Leinart. He threw only 33 passes.

"He's really athletic. He's tough. He has a great arm. He knows what's going on," Trojans Coach Pete Carroll told the Los Angeles Times last month. "He's got a beautiful team around him. It will be interesting to see how the chemistry works now."

The A's, trying to get Cassel to stick with baseball, made him a 36th-round draft choice in 2004. He stuck with the football path, and the Patriots made him a seventh-round pick in 2005.

Cassel sat behind Brady. And, briefly, O'Sullivan sat behind Cassel. The 49ers' starter was on the Patriots' practice squad for a few weeks in 2006.

"Matt had a level of professionalism," O'Sullivan recalled last week. "I felt that he was always ready to play. He practiced hard — everything you would want out of someone who wasn't playing."

Today, the 49ers hope to make Cassel look like a lifelong backup again. Their defense is looking to avenge itself after getting carved up by the Saints passing game last week.

But no one thinks it will be easy. Defensive end Kentwan Balmer said the deep, talented Patriots are scary no matter who starts at quarterback.

Brady or not, here they come.

"They're the Patriots, you know?" Balmer said. "What more needs to be said?"

[Uncle B]

If the Pats can't beat the 49ers by 3 today, they may as well pack it in for the season.

I really don't know wtf to expect today though...That last game...holy shit, that was horrendous.

I would hope though, that the Pats will be pumped up and determined to 'prove' themselves again....

Gonne be interesting either way.....It ain't just Cassel thats questionable now though, thats for sure....The defense against Miami was just amazingly bad.

[luke m.]

I would never risk anything on Cassel. I dont care how good the team is around him.

[Bostongambler]

Pats win by 7-10 pt. range today.

[Uncle B]

Man, they got a nice break with that dumbass penalty on SF...Hopefully these assclowns can get 7 now..

[Uncle B]

holy shit man, NE just blows goats in the redzone..

[Bostongambler]

Originally Posted by Bostongambler

Pats win by 7-10 pt. range today.

I believe 9 falls in between those #'s.

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by Bostongambler

I believe 9 falls in between those #'s.