Oddsmakers set for radical shift against Patriots

[clevfan]

Sep. 08, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Oddsmakers set for radical shift against Patriots

Vaccaro says possible loss of QB Brady to cause dramatic adjustment in team's power rating

By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL

If the New England Patriots lose quarterback Tom Brady for the rest of the season, expect them to rapidly lose the unprecedented amount of respect they earned over the past year from Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Brady was injured in the first quarter of Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. According to numerous reports, he suffered a serious left knee injury that will end his season.

The status of Brady, the NFL's reigning Most Valuable Player, could be announced today.

Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, said oddsmakers will make dramatic adjustments to the Patriots' power rating minus Brady.

"I think it's really bad. The injury is worse than what they're saying," said Vaccaro, who gives New England "no chance" to win the Super Bowl without their star quarterback.

"I make them legitimately 50-1 to win it without Brady," Vaccaro said.

The Patriots often were favored by double digits -- and sometimes by more than 20 points -- as they went 16-0 last regular season. If Brady is gone, so are those inflated lines.

New England was a 16-point favorite Sunday in its 17-10 victory over the Chiefs.

Brady's backup, Matt Cassel, has little experience, and Vaccaro said no player in the league is worth more points to the betting line than Brady.

"A normal quarterback would be three to four points. I've got Brady at seven to eight," Vaccaro said.

The Patriots play Brett Favre and the New York Jets in Week 2. Lucky's posted an early line, before Brady's injury, with New England a 51/2-point road favorite. Vaccaro said he expects the Jets to now be "at least" 2-point favorites.

"If it's less than that, I think the money shows on the Jets," Vaccaro said. "The Patriots are still a good team, but their defense is older."

Vaccaro said Buffalo is his pick to win the AFC East. The Bills closed as 2-point favorites and blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 34-10.

Sharp money was on the Bills, Vaccaro said, and also on the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Panthers, 9-point road underdogs, stunned the San Diego Chargers, 26-24. Jake Delhomme's 14-yard touchdown pass to Dante Rosario as time expired won it for Carolina.

Donovan McNabb passed for three touchdowns as the Eagles embarrassed the St. Louis Rams, 38-3. The line on Philadelphia rose from 71/2 to 9 points.

The betting public also was correct to back the Dallas Cowboys, who closed as 61/2-point favorites in a 28-10 victory at Cleveland.

Vaccaro said a "fair day" for the sports books was made better when the Chicago Bears upset the Indianapolis Colts, 29-13. The Bears were 10-point underdogs.

Lucky's has five sports books in Nevada, including the Plaza in Las Vegas and the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno, and it hopes to add six more locations by the end of the month.

"I was really, really happy with the handle," Vaccaro said. "The crowd was steady, and there was plenty of business. It was a typical NFL opening Sunday. This is amazing, because every year there seems to be more people betting this stuff."

Favorites are 8-6 against the spread in Week 1.

In today's games, Green Bay is a 2-point home favorite over Minnesota, and Denver is a 3-point road favorite over Oakland.

[Uncle B]

The Patriots play Brett Favre and the New York Jets in Week 2. Lucky's posted an early line, before Brady's injury, with New England a 51/2-point road favorite. Vaccaro said he expects the Jets to now be "at least" 2-point favorites.

lol


i'll definitely be taking the points there... -- -- -- --

[teazeman]

Originally Posted by Uncle B

lol


i'll definitely be taking the points there... -- -- -- --

it looks like there will be an overreaction to the brady injury, n.england still has lot's of talent and i'll certainly take all the points they give.

[Dell Dude]

If Pats are getting any points, automatic bet. Excuse me, when did Jets become a powerhouse? They barely beat the Dollgirls. Cassel only has to manage the offence. Patriots may not be a Superbowl team anymore, but they are still a playoff team. J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets are not.

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by teazeman

it looks like there will be an overreaction to the brady injury, n.england still has lot's of talent and i'll certainly take all the points they give.

lol


Yeah, i'd say there might be a bit of over reacting going on already...





Hell, maybe the masses are right...Maybe the Patriots are just a mediocre team, who just happened to have this wizard of a QB who made them all look good......

Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Maroney, Faulk,Morris, etc.etc.,.Just subpar players, benefiting from the magical prowess of superhuman passing machine, Tom Brady......



Now, they'll all flounder helplessly, as Belichick wanders aimlessly along the sidelines, screaming ''WHY GOD, WHY ME?!?! WAS IT THE TAPING? WAS IT THE BOOTY CALLS TO THE MARRIED WOMAN?!? I REPENT, DEAR LORD ABOVE, I REPENT!!!!!! GIMME BACK MY BOY, LORD....GIMME BACK MY ONLY HOPE OF GLORY!!!I'M BEGGIN YOU, BABY JESUS! BRING TOM BRADY HOME TO DADDY!!!!!!!''





Fuck it, i'll take my chances with NE and the points...And hope that baby Jesus brings Tommy home soon...

[Bobby C]

Originally Posted by clevfan

Vaccaro said. "The Patriots are still a good team, but their defense is older."

Why do people keep saying this???

Yeah, their defense looks pretty unspectacular when you compare it to their HOF offense...but they had the #4 defense in the NFL last year. In 9 of their 16 regular season games, they allowed 14 points or less. We're one week into this season, and they allowed <14 in Week One, including a clutch goal line stand at the end.

This is still an elite team on BOTH sides of the ball, and should not be getting points from anyone other than elite teams--and there's nothing ELITE about these Jets.

[luke m.]

Originally Posted by Uncle B

lol


i'll definitely be taking the points there... -- -- -- --

Uncle, you are nuts for putting your money on Cassel! The Pats defense is very average! Jets all day long for me!

[Bostongambler]

PATS---PATS---PATS

[SlipperyPete]

Originally Posted by Bobby C

Why do people keep saying this???

Yeah, their defense looks pretty unspectacular when you compare it to their HOF offense...but they had the #4 defense in the NFL last year. In 9 of their 16 regular season games, they allowed 14 points or less. We're one week into this season, and they allowed <14 in Week One, including a clutch goal line stand at the end.

This is still an elite team on BOTH sides of the ball, and should not be getting points from anyone other than elite teams--and there's nothing ELITE about these Jets.

"In 9 of their 16 regular season games, they allowed 14 points or less. "

The 2007 version of Bills, Jets and MIa all 2x do not count.

I was gonna bang the Jets at first but now I have seriosly cut back on my giddiness. I will still bet the Jets tho.

You are absolutely right that the Pats are still solid, on both sides of the football.
2 things are really dont like about this game. 1 is that its still early in the season and we dont know enough about the Jets just yet. 2nd is that teams have a way of rallying after an injury and for the first game or two they can really play way above their heads. And the Pats can certainly do that

But on the other hand, the Jets potentially match up well against the Pats. They have quick WRs who can go thru their slow back seven like poop thru goose. And on defense they can rush the passer, potentially giving Cassell a lot of trouble

And actually no matter what happens in this game, the Jets are a solid, solid football team.

I think no matter what the outcome of this game is gonna be, the perception of the public about the Pats will be wrong
If they lose, they will start getting points- which is clearly a mistake
If they win, they will be back to laying 3-4+ points- which IMO will be a mistake just as well

Either way, whoever plays close attention to the 2008 Patriots can benefit greatly!!!

[(sportman)]

Jets are gonna blitz their balls off

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by luke m.

Uncle, you are nuts for putting your money on Cassel! The Pats defense is very average! Jets all day long for me!

lol


We'll see...

[OLD MAN]

just curious.....

[Bobby C]

Originally Posted by SlipperyPete

But on the other hand, the Jets potentially match up well against the Pats. They have quick WRs who can go thru their slow back seven like poop thru goose. And on defense they can rush the passer, potentially giving Cassell a lot of trouble

Yeah, too bad the Patriots don't have any decent receivers or pass rushers.

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by Bobby C

Yeah, too bad the Patriots don't have any decent receivers or pass rushers.

Yeah, they are doomed...No way that old, slow Pats team is gonna be able to compete with the Mighty Jets...

[Uncle B]

Originally Posted by luke m.

Uncle, you are nuts for putting your money on Cassel! The Pats defense is very average! Jets all day long for me!

The Pats Defense seems to be doing o.k. so far, Luke...They must have doubled up on the Metamucil...

[Bobby C]

Pats' much maligned defense wins another game for them.

[RaisinCapital]

But they're old