Oddsmakers pick Kaine as a front-runner for VP

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Oddsmakers pick Kaine as a front-runner for VP

Online casinos are letting gamblers get in on the action, laying down odds on the various vice presidential aspirants.

By KIMBALL PAYNE
Dailypress.com

August 20, 2008


Any minute now. Or, um, maybe this weekend.

It depends on whom you believe these days, but political pundits and party insiders are tossing around rumors and speculation that the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is poised to name a running mate via text message as early as this morning.

Vice presidential guesswork rarely lands on target, but this year's partisan parlor game is triggering high drama, especially in Richmond where Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is said to occupy a spot on Obama's short list.

Kaine shows up on nearly every list of potential running mates because of his cozy relation with Obama and his extremely early endorsement of the Illinois senator. But Kaine also gets a wide variety of grades, including a single word opening introduction from The New York Times — "Who?"

Obama's public schedule for the next few days is helping fuel the rumors. Today, he is in Martinsville with Mark Warner and in Lynchburg with Sen. Jim Webb. There are rumors of a rally in Chesapeake on Thursday evening. (Vivian J. Paige, a respected local Democratic blogger, wrote about the Chesapeake rally early Tuesday, then took down the post, she wrote, "at the request of the Obama campaign.")

There are also rumors that Obama is planning to make a campaign stop on Thursday at John Tyler Community College, just south of Richmond in Chester. The visit would have symbolic value as the school is named for former president John Tyler, the last Virginian to serve as vice president. Tyler ascended to the presidency when fellow Virginian William Henry Harrison died a month after taking office.

But Obama has also set up a Saturday event in Springfield, Ill., where he launched his campaign early last year.

Obama surrogates are quick to warn that the campaign schedule is extremely flexible as Obama prepares to lead the partisan showcase at the Democratic National Convention in Denver next week.

Online casinos are following the chatter and dropping the odds on the two front-runners for the number two spot. Kaine is frequently mentioned in the same breath with Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, a popular former governor in a middle-of-the-road state that Obama's campaign is targeting. Kaine and Bayh, both largely unknown outside their own states, have both been making the most of the national tryout, hitting the Sunday morning political talk shows and raising their party profiles.

Gambling Web sites have Kaine and Bayh in a dead heat with odds of 7-5 or 3-2.

The top end of the lists also includes Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has spent six terms in the U.S. Senate and made a handful of unsuccessful presidential runs.

Nearly every bookmaker has Hillary Rodham Clinton as a long shot — in the range of 12-1. They consider her an unlikely choice but too well-known and important in Democratic politics to completely write off. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius also checks in with 8-1 odds.

Former Virginia governor and current U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner is also listed as a long shot, even though Warner said at the Virginia Democratic Convention in Hampton that he would not accept the nomination for vice president. The bookmakers put the odds at 25-1 that he'll stick to that announcement.

The ground is constantly shifting underneath various aspirants. John Edwards fell from 16-1 to 150-1 after admitting to an extramarital affair while on the campaign trail. One site even offered wagerers a chance to throw $1 down on an Obama-Oprah Winfrey ticket, with the chance to win back $500.

The series of Virginia barnstorming stops appears to tilt toward Kaine, but recent international events seem to favor other vice presidential hopefuls. Russia's invasion into Georgia, a shift in leadership in Pakistan and resurgent fighting in Afghanistan have placed a premium on foreign policy experience — which Obama would get from Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Biden just returned from a visit with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Obama's decision is going to be mass e-mailed and sent via text message to supporters who signed up to get the word first, so the campaign's inner circle is working hard to make sure the choice doesn't leak out. Strategists said the official word could come as early as this morning.

Or this weekend.



Place your veepstakes bets
Who's the favorite to be Barack Obama's running mate? Oddsmakers have Indiana's Evan Bayh and Virginia's Tim Kaine out front.

Evan Bayh

3-2

Tim Kaine

3-2

Joe Biden

15-2

Hillary Clinton

12-1

Mark Warner

25-1

Oprah

500-1

at the top of the short list

looking like a longshot

Don't bet on it