UFC 87: Preview and Predictions...By Jay Graziani

[Rogthedodger]

UFC 87: Seek and Destroy
Saturday, August 9th, 10 PM ET
Target Center, Minneapolis
Weigh-in: Friday, August 8th, 5 PM ET, live on UFC.com


UFC 86 was another favorite-heavy event, with underdogs pulling off only two upsets, one being the controversial decision win of Forrest Griffin. August's installment doesn't look to be much better, with 8 of the 10 fights seeing favorites of 5-to-2 or better and a lot of rookies on the card. The dilution of talent in the UFC is becoming more and more apparent; with the exception of the welterweight title bout, not much else on this card has anything to shake up the UFC fighter hierarchy.

Here's a preview of Saturday night's fights, with current odds from Bookmaker.com.

Ben "Killa B" Saunders (5-0-2) vs. Ryan Thomas (9-1-0)
Current Odds: Saunders -285; Thomas +225


Ryan Thomas is so unknown that UFC.com doesn't even have a picture of him (along with 3 other fighters on this card). He has a decent record in small events, with the majority of his wins coming via submission. Saunders is coming off his first UFC bout, a win over fellow TUF 6 vet Dan Barrera. Both are well-versed in submissions and Thomas has a collegiate wrestling background to boot. This should be closer than it looks on paper, so I'll lean towards the underdog. Prediction: Thomas, 1st round submission.

Chris "The Professor" Wilson (13-4-0) vs. Steve "Hollywood" Bruno (11-3-0)
Current Odds: Wilson -325; Bruno +265


Bruno is a striker who has fought his way through small promotions against few challenging opponents. Wilson managed to go the distance with Jon Fitch in his UFC debut, a fight he stepped into as a replacement. Wilson has to be given some serious credit for holding up against Fitch, and I think he is a bit underrated here. Prediction: Wilson, 2nd round TKO.

Andre Gusmao (5-0-0) vs. Jon "Bones" Jones (5-0-0)
Current Odds: Gusmao -240; Jones +190


Gusmao collected a 5-0 record fighting for Renzo Gracie's NY Pitbulls in the IFL. Jones has put together an identical record in small MMA promotions, but has only been fighting since April and started training in MMA a mere 9 months ago. Gusmao may be a bit too much for him to handle this early in his career. Jones has a decent standup game and good wrestling background, but Gusmao will hold a strong edge in submissions. Prediction: Gusmao, 1st round submission.

Cheick Kongo (11-4-1) vs. Dan "The Viking" Evensen (10-2-0)
Current Odds: Kongo -550; Evensen +400


Kongo was surrounded by plenty of hype before losing a decision to Heath Herring in March. His biggest claim to fame is beating CroCop, although that doesn't seem as much of an accomplishment in hindsight. Evensen, last seen in BodogFIGHT, is making his UFC debut and has yet to fight anyone of note. Both should look to keep this standing, where Kongo's striking should play a big role. Kongo is a bit inconsistent to be this large of a favorite, so betting-wise I'll lean towards the underdog. Prediction: Kongo, 1st round TKO.

Luke "The Silent Assassin" Cummo (6-5-0) vs. Tamdan "The Barn Cat" McCrory (8-1-0)
Current Odds: Cummo -145; McCrory +115


Cummo is only 6-5, but each of those losses has been by the scorecards, against opponents including Joe Stevenson, Josh Koscheck, and, his most recent opponent, Luigi Fioravanti. He is primarily a striker but will struggle to get into range against 6'4" McCrory, who is coming off a 9 month hiatus since taking his first loss at the hands (or, more correctly, legs) of Akihiro Gono. Both are primarily strikers, but barring the reach advantage, I don't see much in McCrory's favor. Prediction: Cummo, 2nd round TKO.

Jason "The Athlete" Macdonald (20-9-0) vs. Demian Maia (7-0-0)
Current Odds: MacDonald +195; Maia -245


MacDonald bounced back from losses to Yushin Okami and Rich Franklin to beat Joe Doerkson in April. He's still on his game, but he missed his shot at the crown and now is playing more of a gatekeeper role. Maia is now 2-0 in the Octagon after besting Ed Herman. Maia's jiu-jitsu is top notch and he should be able to control MacDonald if he can keep the fight on the mat, but MacDonald is a bit too experienced and well-rounded to be this large of an underdog. Prediction: MacDonald, 3rd round TKO.

Manny "The Anvil" Gamburyan (8-2-0) vs. Rob "The Saint" Emerson (7-6-0)
Current Odds: Gamburyan -345; Emerson +275


This is a battle of TUF 5 contestants, with Emerson losing two first round fights (one as a substitute), while Gamburyan made it all the way to the finals only to fall to Nate Diaz due to injury. Ignoring the bizarre no contest against Gray Maynard at the TUF 5 finale, Emerson has won his last 5 fights despite his subpar record. Gamburyan is 2-0 since his loss to Diaz, both submissions coming under two minutes into the first round. Emerson will have good height/reach and striking advantages and the edge in conditioning, but he will be in big trouble if Gamburyan is able to keep it on the mat. I backed Emerson his last time out as a 2-to-1 dog and still think he is being a bit underrated by the linesmakers. Prediction: Emerson, 3rd round TKO.

Kenny "KenFlo" Florian (9-3-0) vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta (20-1-1)
Current Odds: Florian -145; Huerta +115


This bout features two of the top contenders in the lightweight division, and the winner of this match may well put himself in line for a title shot. Florian has put together an impressive record thus far, with his only losses in the Octagon coming at the hands of Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez. Huerta is no slouch either, with his only loss coming by submission 20 fights ago, although his list of opponents is far from impressive. Huerta has been in the public eye since his appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated and I'm surprised to see him as the underdog here -- I'll bite. Prediction: Huerta, 3rd round TKO.

Brock Lesnar (1-1-0) vs. Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring (28-13-0)
Current Odds: Lesnar -245; Herring +195


Lesnar was given no gift upon entering the UFC, immediately facing off against experienced contender Frank Mir. His second opponent was originally slated as Mark Coleman, but he now must contend with Herring, a long-time PRIDE fighter who has faced many of the top heavyweights in MMA. Herring has the experience edge but is only 2-2 since his Octagon debut in 2007. He has proven his endurance and ability to stay out of trouble, as 7 of his 13 career losses have gone the distance, but will be at a huge disadvantage on the ground against Lesnar, although they match up well in size. Lesnar looked respectable against Mir before getting caught in a kneebar, but I think we'll see some better submission defense from him this time around and an overall better showing for the early stoppage. Prediction: Lesnar, 1st round TKO.

Georges "Rush" St-Pierre (16-2-0) vs. Jon Fitch (17-2-0)
Current Odds: St-Pierre -335; Fitch +285


While St-Pierre comes in as the favorite, Fitch actually has the better record, undefeated in nearly 6 years. Fitch is well-rounded with a great wrestling background, but has had problems finishing fights, with 6 of his last 10 bouts going the distance. That may spell trouble against St-Pierre, who has faced tougher opponents and is widely considered among the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Barring what is widely-considered to be a fluke loss against Matt Serra, GSP has only lost to Matt Hughes, and that was back when Hughes was actually relevant. Look for an all-out battle and a great technical fight. While GSP beat the similarly-styled Koscheck, the odds on Fitch are a bit generous and he is worth a shot in a fight that is definitely winnable. Prediction: Fitch, 4th round TKO.

Picks (2008: 17-13 +3.85 units; Best Bets: 4-2, +2.00 units)


Luke Cummo -145
Rob Emerson +275
Roger Huerta +115
Brock Lesnar -245 (Best Bet)
Jon Fitch +285


Opinions (2008: 23-17 +9.95 units)
Ryan Thomas +225
Chris Wilson -325
Andre Gusmao -240
Dan Evensen +400
Jason MacDonald +195


8-8-08
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani@majorwager.com

http://www.majorwager.com/frontline-684.html

[WrongSideWarrior]

Awesome job as usual Jay...

Wish you the best.

[Oddessa]

Ben Saunders 170 Vs. Ryan Thomas 170
Chris Wilson 170 Vs. Steve Bruno 170
Andre Gusmao 205 Vs. Jon Jones 205
Cheick Kongo 235 Vs. Dan Evensen 244
Luke Cummo 167 Vs. Tamdan McCrory 170
Manny Gamburyan 155 Vs. Rob Emerson 155
Jason MacDonald 185 Vs. Demian Maia 185
Kenny Florian 155 Vs. Roger Huerta 155
Brock Lesnar 265 Vs. Heath Herring 250
Georges St-Pierre 170 Vs. Jon Fitch 170

[drunkguy]

WSW, Oddessa, who you guys liking?


tough card this time out I think, tons of chalk and I won;t be surprised to see almost all of them win (although I hope not)

[Buck Swope]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

WSW, Oddessa, who you guys liking?


tough card this time out I think, tons of chalk and I won;t be surprised to see almost all of them win (although I hope not)

chalk.........UFC...........never

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Buck Swope

chalk.........UFC...........never

yea, favs are only on like a 40-3 run the last 4 shows


dogs were barking for a little while there, but back to form now I guess

[drunkguy]

picks 2-3 +30
opinions 1-4 -440

[Oddessa]

Show Intro:
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting
or
ufc 87 - intro - miracle.asf

Main Card Bouts:
-Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

-Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

-Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

-Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald
ufc 87 - mcdonald vs maia - MIRACLE.asf
or
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

-Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

Preliminary Bouts:
-Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen
ufc 87 - kongo vs evenson - MIRACLE.asf
or
RapidShare: Easy Filehosting

[Total Square]

pretty entertaining card for the first time in a long time. they could have tried to milk the product, but had three what could have been headliner bouts on the one card which were all good fights. they have to get back to having more of these good fights on a card as opposed to watering down the product which has seemed to be the direction for quite some time.

and no matter what anybody says, dana white is still a pos

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by Total Square

pretty entertaining card for the first time in a long time. they could have tried to milk the product, but had three what could have been headliner bouts on the one card which were all good fights

yea too bad they didn't save any of them for UFC 88 and 89


pretty weak cards coming up

[Val]

Maybe I am in the minority then. I didn't see it as being that good of a card. GSP-Fitch was a funy beatdown I will say. Still, in the end it was just a 1 sided fight. Lesnar-Herring was a pretty shit fight. Florian-Huerta wasn't to good. Florian fought smart but not exciting. Gamburyan-Emerson was a great KO but is 12 seconds even a fight? It was just a couple of landed punches from Emerson then fight over. Maia-Macdonald was probably the best fight on the card I did enjoy that 1. All in all I didn't see a great card though.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by Val

Maybe I am in the minority then. I didn't see it as being that good of a card. GSP-Fitch was a funy beatdown I will say. Still, in the end it was just a 1 sided fight. Lesnar-Herring was a pretty shit fight. Florian-Huerta wasn't to good. Florian fought smart but not exciting. Gamburyan-Emerson was a great KO but is 12 seconds even a fight? It was just a couple of landed punches from Emerson then fight over. Maia-Macdonald was probably the best fight on the card I did enjoy that 1. All in all I didn't see a great card though.

I agree with you..

GSP/Fitch was entertaining but Huerta/Florian was only good for about a minute of the fifteen minutes fought.

I am actually looking fwd to the UFC coming from Chicago. Sherk/Griffin should be a phenomenal show.

[Val]

That's a decent fight but Silva-Cote as a main event? Sanchez-Alves and Sherk-Griffin are much better fights than the supposed main event. Fisher-Gullard should be a good fight to. Looking at it, that should be a pretty entertaining card.

[WrongSideWarrior]

Originally Posted by Val

That's a decent fight but Silva-Cote as a main event? Sanchez-Alves and Sherk-Griffin are much better fights than the supposed main event. Fisher-Gullard should be a good fight to. Looking at it, that should be a pretty entertaining card.

I figure three good to great fights with a crushing KO to end the show should be worth my money..