Favre deal causes sports book shake-up: Jets' betting lines pulled off board at Hilton

[clevfan]

Aug. 07, 2008
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

NFL BETTING: Favre deal causes sports book shake-up

Jets' betting lines pulled off board at Hilton

By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL

What could have been the hottest quarterback controversy in the NFL, pitting Aaron Rodgers against that other guy who no longer plays for the Green Bay Packers, never got started.

The Packers traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets on Wednesday night, ending the long-running drama that had paralyzed the league.

Moments after the deal was reported, Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay pulled all of the Jets' betting lines off the board.

"Looking at the Jets' quarterback situation, Favre is going to be a huge upgrade," Kornegay said. "But it's not like they just got Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Favre is past his prime."

The Jets' regular-season win total was 71/2 (over minus-115), and the Jets were 3-point road favorites over the Miami Dolphins in their Sept. 7 season opener.

Kornegay said he and his staff will debate the impact Favre could have on the Jets before putting betting lines back up today.

Now, the quarterback competition to watch involves the Chicago Bears and a duel between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton that will be decided in the preseason.

It might seem that NFL games in August are rather meaningless, but Kornegay said preseason football wagering is heating up.

"These guys have not seen an NFL game since February, and with all the information that continues to be available earlier and earlier, people have that itch to wager on football," Kornegay said.

Between today and Monday, there are 16 games on the Week 1 preseason schedule.

One game is drawing a lot of interest today, Kornegay said, and it's the Bears as 31/2-point home favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs.

There are two obvious strategies to betting the preseason -- look for coaches who do or do not put an emphasis on winning, and bet on teams with competitive quarterback situations. Both angles appear to be working in the Bears-Chiefs game.

Orton will start for Chicago and Grossman will enter in relief, and both need to play well. Kansas City's Herman Edwards, 0-4 straight up and against the spread last August, is not a coach who takes the preseason seriously.

Two coaches who normally win in the preseason are Denver's Mike Shanahan and New England's Bill Belichick.

Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco said he cares slightly more about coaches than quarterbacks when breaking down preseason games, so he's keeping an eye on Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano.

"The Dolphins have a new front office and a new coach, and they want to instill a winning attitude in the team," Franco said.

The Dolphins are 11/2-point home favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday.

The Bucs' regular-season win total is 8, and Kornegay said he might not have adjusted that number if the 38-year-old Favre was traded to Tampa Bay, which has Jeff Garcia as its starter.

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by clevfan

Jets' regular-season win total was 71/2 (over minus-115)

i grabbed the Over last night

[(sportman)]

Jets got "D" also...kinda under-rated

[WrongSideWarrior]

Jets o-line is damn good and they have two burners at receiver..

Not a bad situation for Favre.

[clevfan]

From ProFootball Weekly:

You might have guessed the Jets' Super Bowl odds were going to drop after the acquisition of Brett Favre, and you would be correct.

The Jets, who were 20-1 to win Super Bowl XLIII earlier this week at the MGM Mirage family of casinos, are now 15-1. The Jets were 75-1 in January, but a strong offseason and their long-standing popularity with the betting public made them a popular longshot choice to win the title. "We already had quite a bit of liability on the Jets," MGM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood said Thursday.

Rood also adjusted the Over-Under on the Jets' wins from seven to eight. So did Chuck Esposito, the assistant vice president of race and sports at Caesars Palace, which is part of the Harrah's family of casinos. Esposito also dropped the Jets' Super Bowl odds from 50-1 to 30-1.

Both casinos left the Packers' win total at eight.

"The question mark is (Aaron) Rodgers," Esposito said of the Packers. "With Favre, we would have moved that (total) to nine."

Esposito also adjusted the "vig," or the odds bettors had to lay to take the Over on the Packers. Before the trade, those who wanted who bet the Packers to win more than eight games had to lay minus-160, or bet $16 to win $10. Those odds have dropped to minus-140.

However, Rood took a different approach, raising the vig on the Over to minus-120 and suggesting the Packers could benefit from the end of the Favre saga.

Caesars, which dropped the Packers' Super Bowl odds to 10-1 when it appeared Favre would return, has moved that number to the 20- or 22-1 range, Esposito said. The Packers' Super Bowl odds remain 10-1 at the Mirage properties.