How do you figure a total?

[pokerjoe]

Let's say we have a league and a sport with an average non-OT game total of 50.

Two teams meet, each with an average expected score of 40.

You have no additional information.

What do you make the total?

I've always thought it was the the team's individual score expectancy multiplied, then divided by the league average score. So, in this case, 40*40 = 1600, divided by the league average of 50, = 32.

OT impact would be added by the likelihood of OT occurring (less likely the higher the spread) added on as a point value, so if the chance of OT is 2%, and 2% was equal to 1/2 point at that total point, then 32.5

(I didn't name the sport to avoid being sidetracked into actual values and chances)

But, I haven't actually done any work on this (in all these years, hard to imagine).

So, any one whose put more thought into this, want to weigh in? Because in some early database fooling around, I don't find this formula particularly accurate. A little better than just adding the individual team scoring and dividing by 2, but not that much more accurate.

Also, in lieu of dividing the product of the team's scoring by the league average, maybe dividing it by the average opponent's score would be more accurate, especially if you removed the team's own impact on that average opponent's score.

[drunkguy]

Two teams meet, each with an average expected score of 40.

so, shouldn't the total be 80 then?

or maybe i'm just not following you

[pokerjoe]

Sorry, I meant, an average expected total, so maybe scoring and allowing 20 points, or scoring 25 and allowing 15, or whatever.

[drunkguy]

well if the average expected total is 40, then why is that not the answer you are looking for?


The total should be the same as the average expected score, right?

[pokerjoe]

You know something, back in the day, a thread like this would have been way live.

DG, no, two teams with average total scoring of 40, in a league with an average score of 50, will not have a total of 40 because they're both coming in with scoring 10 points below average, vs average competition. But now, playing each other, they aren't playing average comp, they're playing below average scoring teams.

[gc_pres]

here is a calculator...

NFL Total Value Calculator by Smart Capper

[drunkguy]

Originally Posted by pokerjoe

You know something, back in the day, a thread like this would have been way live.

DG, no, two teams with average total scoring of 40, in a league with an average score of 50, will not have a total of 40 because they're both coming in with scoring 10 points below average, vs average competition. But now, playing each other, they aren't playing average comp, they're playing below average scoring teams.

OK gotcha

"average expected score" means something a little different than "average score of past games" to me

they're both coming in with scoring 10 points below average, vs average competition.

not necessarily, one may have scored that against bad opponents and the other team may have scored that against great opponents

Two teams averaging 40 points per game are not necessarily equivalent. Strength of opponents plays a HUGE role. Using league-wide scoring averages is generally not the best way to go about things IMO

[Ironlock]

Joe-
In regards to the lack of serious gambling discussion, I think you are right about there being less interest. I think most that still gamble have found their edge and are hesistant to share if it pertains. Back in the ol' days, knowledgable posters let their ego's get in the way of their brains and alot of gems were spewed across the forums via chest thumping arguments.

Nowadays, its most children bragging about how much they can bench press, perverts posting porn, and nerds whose lives are defined by forumville. I think it resembles a town with no jobs, college, or opportunities where the flunkies are left behind comparing themselves with one another, while the talent has moved away.

I would wager that a substantial majority don't even gamble on sports. Its tough to get it done offshore, and most of these nerds wouldn't know where to find a local, and probably believe they'll get stiffed cause some dumbfuck on a forum told them that.

As far as the question goes, I disagree with most of your assumptions. I think you need to define the sport to get a real discussion going, but here are a few of my thoughts. Isn't tempo important in regards to scoring totals? Tempo defines scoring oppportunities, and some teams use tempo to dictate the game. I wouldn't automatically assume that because a team has a low average, that it is necessarily and indication of weakness. It might be an indication of stregth.

If this was basketball, I would argue that you are 100% wrong in your method. If both teams score less than average, and give up less than average, then when they face each other, I would make an adjustment DOWNWARD, not upward. The league averages have only had an artificial inflation of their scoring totals up until this point, and when they face each other...the scoring would tend to be less.

What sport are we talking about? I think you're sharp enough to know that a general rule cannot be made across all sports.

Also, enjoy your poker posts. I hung it up about a year ago, got bored of it.

Iron.

[drunkguy]

damn Ironlock, no need to be a hater to all us nerds, flunkies, losers, perverts, etc. I notice you still read here though, so we must at least provide you some comic relief I guess


joe, i wrote something simple about figuring lines here, maybe its helpful
http://www.majorwager.com/index.cfm?...how_column=384

[Ironlock]

Originally Posted by drunkguy

damn Ironlock, no need to be a hater to all us nerds, flunkies, losers, perverts, etc. I notice you still read here though, so we must at least provide you some comic relief I guess


joe, i wrote something simple about figuring lines here, maybe its helpful
http://www.majorwager.com/index.cfm?...how_column=384

I should have said, "present company excluded". This place has some damn good posters still around, and alot of gamblers. Didn't mean to paint everyone with a wide brush. I don't excuse everyone here, but for the most part, I enjoy reading MW. I learned a ton at this place, no doubt about it.

Iron.

[stevo]

I don't define or compare myself to anyone. I'm able to be here because I was successful enough at my original occupation to retire at 40 and move and buy some cheap land. I'm not super rich just comfortable enough not to have to work anymore. I got bored and decided to gamble as a hobby from home. I also belive many more at MW gamble than not.

People don't give out good info to keep their edge is what I think also Ironlock.

I have also never seen a bench press post on MW although there could be one.

I like the people at MW thats why I'm here. If people want to put the current lot down with "back in the day posts" thats cool too.

I wasnt here then so maybe it was way better as far as info goes.

I live for today.

[(sportman)]

Then pick me a darn winner

Times they have a certainly changed around here.
I have a feeling some of the crew will be back for footzy...

[stevo]

I post almost everyday Sport. Do my best. For the time I've been gambling I've learned enough what not to bet and not lose.

However, I am 70% below my profit from last year at this time without netteller and the transition to Local is new to me. Have to learn some stuff over again.

But I don't do this as a living and feel bad for people that do. Maybe the UIEGA or whatever didnt affect them like it did me.

[(sportman)]

It had a major effect stevo...

You called it out from the get-go.

People laughed at you... Kudos, incredible significant happening..

I believe the ruling knocked a few good men off these boards also

[Ironlock]

Originally Posted by stevo

I also belive many more at MW gamble than not.

People don't give out good info to keep their edge is what I think also Ironlock.

I have also never seen a bench press post on MW although there could be one.

I like the people at MW thats why I'm here. If people want to put the current lot down with "back in the day posts" thats cool too.

I wasnt here then so maybe it was way better as far as info goes.

I live for today.

What can I say? I stand behind what I said, I believe it. Its not a judgement or a comparison of myself against anyone else..... its a statement of opinion on why things are different.

Stevo-I didn't come flying in here throwing out condemnation at you or anyone else.

PokerJoe brought up the past, and lamented the historical change. I just happened to sympathize with him and feel I have an explanation for it. I hope that doesnt bother you, because I'm not gonna be the guy that comes in here kissing everyones ass acting like a 3rd grader cheering on the pervert jokes and the Obama is gonna save us all clique. I can do battle, and I can also enjoy the cast of characters...but I don't have to reserve opinions that offend those I consider immature scumbags that have for the most part ruined just about every forum that I've grown to love.

By the way, I haven't heard anyone at MW mention bench pressing either. I also believe this place has the highest % of gambling posters. That doesn't negate the faact that its alot less than it used to be, and I'm not sorry to point that fact out. I don't think anything I said was inaccurate, if so let me know.

[StarnetGypsy]

i'm suppose i'm guilty of this forum being a part of my life, but with great people like Sporto & Stevo here, who can blame me?

besides, i need to stay away from the mainstream of life, and hunker down in my home. it seems whenever i go out partying & mingling with folks i end up having trouble find me .... this way of life now works for me!

post on!

[stevo]

But I never bumped the old posts because I don't need to prove anything. I got the last laugh. That things would continue unfettered was ridiculous yet many thought it would.

Its like Ironlock said. There are a group of forumites (not including MW) who only seem to want entertainment. I might of bumped em if I was at one of those places. But not MW. Learned too much and like the posters too much to say "told you so"

[(sportman)]

stevo is like Gayle Sayers...Scores the TD and hands the ball off to the ref

[stevo]

Originally Posted by Ironlock

What can I say? I stand behind what I said, I believe it. Its not a judgement or a comparison of myself against anyone else..... its a statement of opinion on why things are different.

Stevo-I didn't come flying in here throwing out condemnation at you or anyone else.

PokerJoe brought up the past, and lamented the historical change. I just happened to sympathize with him and feel I have an explanation for it. I hope that doesnt bother you, because I'm not gonna be the guy that comes in here kissing everyones ass acting like a 3rd grader cheering on the pervert jokes and the Obama is gonna save us all clique. I can do battle, and I can also enjoy the cast of characters...but I don't have to reserve opinions that offend those I consider immature scumbags that have for the most part ruined just about every forum that I've grown to love.

By the way, I haven't heard anyone at MW mention bench pressing either. I also believe this place has the highest % of gambling posters. That doesn't negate the faact that its alot less than it used to be, and I'm not sorry to point that fact out. I don't think anything I said was inaccurate, if so let me know.

Nah, I like you IRON and have found value in just about every one of your posts. I won't argue against any point you made. Just wanted to express MW is still a serious place more than not as far as gambling info goes. I can't sympathize with pokerjoe as I mentioned I wasnt around and I even said thats cool to say too. Everyone has a right to their opinion. Just stating mine from my perspective.


Stevo-I didn't come flying in here throwing out condemnation at you or anyone else.


And I thank you for that because I've seen you tear some others apart at other forums.............LOL