How do you figure a total?

[(sportman)]

Not ironlock...

Gotta be an alias

[stevo]

Originally Posted by (sportman)

Not ironlock...

Gotta be an alias

I've seen him call out bullshit and eloquently back it up at another forum and take no prisoners. I think Iron is a razorsharp guy. I WISH i knew as much as him gambling wise.

[Ironlock]

Thanks for the kind words Steve. I've always noticed what a loyal fucker you are, so its comforting to think that one day I might benefit from it

I would guess that out of your loyalty to Russ, you have a natural defensiveness when people start saying what sounds like negative things about the current state of the forum. I understand it, and don't fault you for it, it comes from a good place.

I did battle with a good friend over allowing a stiff and rat to run roughshot over a forum and havn'et posted there since. Not everyone has the same reasons for being here...some are here to work, some are here to learn, some are here to brag, some are here to be entertained, and some are here to live their fake lives. I get it.

You do a good job and hopefully we'll meet someday.

Iron

[(sportman)]

No doubt... He walks his TALK

[stevo]

On another point Ironlock made. Anything I have ever been taught by the sharp people I've met in person and now do biz with here at MW comes with the caveat:

Don't print this on any forum. Thats why I agreed people arent willing to share info. And why should they? Just takes away their edge. So I can understand that.

[Ironlock]

Originally Posted by stevo

On another point Ironlock made. Anything I have ever been taught by the sharp people I've met in person and now do biz with here at MW comes with the caveat:

Don't print this on any forum. Thats why I agreed people arent willing to share info. And why should they? Just takes away their edge. So I can understand that.

YOu are 100% right on. Almost everything I know about effective sports betting, I learned from somebody I met or read on these forums. No doubt about it. I can't imagine having to sift through the ______ in todays world to learn anything of real value, I don't think I could do it anymore.

Iron.

[RaisinCapital]

Pokerjoe I would like to offer some strategies I use, but I don't gamble and I just came here to jackoff in the Entertainment forum.

This thread is a perfect example of bull shit.

Perhaps someone who could contribute to this thread will not post for the chance of criticism, giving away an edge, or may feel letdown by self-proclaimed sharp posters who call out the fucking posters here! Therefore that individual will refrain from posting valuable and helpful information, and keep it to their mother-fucking self.

[gc_pres]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

Pokerjoe I would like to offer some strategies I use, but I don't gamble and I just came here to jackoff in the Entertainment forum.

This thread is a perfect example of bull shit.

Perhaps someone who could contribute to this thread will not post for the chance of criticism, giving away an edge, or may feel letdown by self-proclaimed sharp posters who call out the fucking posters here! Therefore that individual will refrain from posting valuable and helpful information, and keep it to their mother-fucking self.

... that is all well and good, but how much can you bench press?

[(sportman)]

360...

49 years young..I like raisins sig

[RaisinCapital]

Originally Posted by gc_pres

... that is all well and good, but how much can you bench press?

Under the projected total between Warriors & Suns
Over the projected total between Pistons & Spurs

[ricebird]

No shit Sport? That's damn good.

[(sportman)]

Thanks rice..yourself?

[stevo]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

Under the projected total between Warriors & Suns
Over the projected total between Pistons & Spurs

LOL. creative answer

[Ironlock]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

Pokerjoe I would like to offer some strategies I use, but I don't gamble and I just came here to jackoff in the Entertainment forum.

Sweet, a new nit wit enemy. Disregard the fact that Drunkguy and I are the only 2 who have offered contributions to the gambling question at hand.

Iron.

[cubie]

Originally Posted by pokerjoe

Let's say we have a league and a sport with an average non-OT game total of 50.

Two teams meet, each with an average expected score of 40.

You have no additional information.

What do you make the total?

I've always thought it was the the team's individual score expectancy multiplied, then divided by the league average score. So, in this case, 40*40 = 1600, divided by the league average of 50, = 32.

OT impact would be added by the likelihood of OT occurring (less likely the higher the spread) added on as a point value, so if the chance of OT is 2%, and 2% was equal to 1/2 point at that total point, then 32.5

(I didn't name the sport to avoid being sidetracked into actual values and chances)

But, I haven't actually done any work on this (in all these years, hard to imagine).

So, any one whose put more thought into this, want to weigh in? Because in some early database fooling around, I don't find this formula particularly accurate. A little better than just adding the individual team scoring and dividing by 2, but not that much more accurate.

Also, in lieu of dividing the product of the team's scoring by the league average, maybe dividing it by the average opponent's score would be more accurate, especially if you removed the team's own impact on that average opponent's score.

forget scoring averages for instance ill use football as an example two teams each avg 20 pf and 17 pts against that really doesnt mean shit. what type of team is team a compared to team b(good running team vs good run defense or good running team vs bad run defense)( good passing team vs bad pass defense) injuries also go into the equation as well a so so pass defense is missing their best cornerback against a good passing offense there will be more points obviously its all done on my own personal stats that and kee[ and tweak here and there u cant use league averages for this reasons some teams play into other teams hands in any sport have to come up with your own sets of #s and work with it from there

[StarnetGypsy]

Originally Posted by RaisinCapital

Perhaps someone who could contribute to this thread will not post for the chance of criticism, giving away an edge, or may feel letdown by self-proclaimed sharp posters who call out the fucking posters here! Therefore that individual will refrain from posting valuable and helpful information, and keep it to their mother-fucking self.

RC, well said ... for bein a kid

.... and low an behold what response do you get?

Originally Posted by Ironlock

Sweet, a new nit wit enemy. Disregard the fact that Drunkguy and I are the only 2 who have offered contributions to the gambling question at hand.

hammer, meet nail.

Did you say hello to RZ for me?

[Ironlock]

Originally Posted by StarnetGypsy

I am the most annoying 65 year old non gambling campground resident looking for love on the internet who blames his lot on government

ayep!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought you put me on ignore you bum. Please put me back on, I liked you better when all you say is ayep and don't follow me around.

Thanks again.

Iron.

[RaisinCapital]

Good guys first ...

Gypsy, I didn't see DP while in Vegas. I was hoping to as I am sure he was going to kiss my ass in a desperate attempt to sweet-talk his way into a date with my mom

I love the fact that posters who have been here for a few years+ feel as though they can say anything they want to anybody! And then talk about how all the OTHER posters like to brag!? What's wrong with this picture?!

Finally ...

Ironlock, I must say you are wrong.

I, honestly, owe a great deal of thanks to Pokerjoe as he has helped me a few times. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one!

If the man asked for advice on totals-- we should give it to him. Not talk about how sharp we are, and how good posters are gone. There's some talent floating through MW, but I'm afraid those that have been lost are because of stupid-ass people that make comments like you.

Let's help this man out on totals! Prove how sharp you REALLY are!

[RaisinCapital]

Now PokerJoe ...

Would you like to know how linesmakers get their totals? Or, how you can obtain your own total and use it against theirs to find an edge?

Cubie is onto something, as the public will overact to injuries and linesmakers adjust for that. Weather, key numbers, public-perception, etc.

I, personally, make my own totals and predictions with my comp. And then 19 adds up the numbers and BAM, I get my numbers.

Seriously though. My systems uses variables such as weather, tempo, strength of schedule, division/conference/rival, turnovers, yards per point, red-zone offense and defense.

If you would like I could PM you a nice algebraic equation that I made, and use to determine/predict scores. It works out nicely. Although I must admit, at times I do not factor in Tempo, or just simply overlook how big of a role it does play ... and that's a key factor.

Some might say that totals are a crap-shoot. Those people should be shooting craps instead of making plays.