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| What to do with 16 against a dealer's 10 July 24, 2008 Chicago Sun Times By Gus Rose, Gaming columnist There undoubtedly are more playing strategies in blackjack than in any other casino game. You can find books and magazine articles written by experts who have tested their theories during many hours of "lab" work at the tables. You also will find articles by mathematicians armed with percentages on making so-called "right" moves under certain circumstances. Then there are players you see at the tables flying by the seat of their pants, making moves that rely purely on luck, because there is little or no chance for success. Several weeks ago, I mentioned watching a player operating just that way, taking a hit and busting, when the dealer was showing a potential bust card (a 2 through 6, that most rules say must be hit). The player not only hurt himself but other players at the table. The reason I bring this up is a recent Midwest Gaming & Travel magazine article by Henry Tamburin, one of my favorite blackjack experts. The piece detailed how to play a hand totaling 16 against a dealer's 10. All the options are available, but only a few of them have merit. Tamburin pointed out that 16 against a 10 is one of the most frequent hands dealt in blackjack. As you would suspect, how the hand is played depends largely on the makeup of your 16 - what combination of cards are involved. He said his task is to sort all this out so "you'll know how to play the hand" the next time you are dealt a 16 against a 10. Tamburin begins with the simplest combination, when your 16 consists of a 10-6 or 9-7. In this instance, the proper play is to hit, no matter how many decks are in use. However, if the surrender option is available, then surrendering is the proper play, even if your 10 consists of an ace-9, he said. In any event, 16 against a 10 gives you a very weak hand, while the dealer has a good chance to make a hand. It's better to surrender and lose half your bet because the move will save you money in the long run. Tamburin's next example features a 16 made up of two 8s. His recommendation is to split the 8s, although he admits many players hate to make the play because they will have two hands going against a strong hand by the dealer. But, he said, splitting the 8s, rather than surrendering, is the best option. Another example Tamburin gives is having a three-card hand totaling 16. Say you're holding a 5-7 and draw a 4. In this case, he suggests the best move is to stand. His reasoning is: You are holding three low cards that are not available to the dealer, and "this shifts the odds just enough so that standing is the better play." How about holding a 16 made up of an ace-5? Because you have a soft hand that you can't bust with one card, the optimum play is to hit, Tamburin said. The same strategy applies if you have a multi-card soft hand such as an ace, 2-3. Always hit, which will give you a chance of making a winning hand. Tamburin summarized his strategy this way. If you have a 10-6 or 9-7, either hit or surrender, if the option is available. With a pair of 8s, split. With a multi-card 16 stand, and any soft 16, hit. "If you follow these strategies, you always will make the right play when you are dealt a hand that totals 16 and the dealer is showing a 10 up card, or ace-9," Tamburin said. |
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| The "wrong" move by a player in blackjack has every bit as much of a chance of helping the other players at the table as opposed to hurting. However, people tend to only remember (and get angered at) the "wrong" plays that hurt them. Its the same principle as bad beats in gambling. Bettors always think they are on a disproportionate side of bad beats, but unless their bets are disproportionate to the underdog and under, these things actually tend to even out over time. The psychological impact, however, usually does not equal out over time which is what propogates the myth. |
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| Say you're holding a 5-7 and draw a 4. In this case, he suggests the best move is to stand. His reasoning is: You are holding three low cards that are not available to the dealer, and "this shifts the odds just enough so that standing is the better play." That's BS. In a 6 card deck you holding 3 low cards in one hand only changes the odds by a very, very small fraction, not enough to justify the above statement. |
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--Everyone only remembers their last hand..especially if it lost. Sharp post BDC |
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